Bold prediction: If we beat FSU, we only need a win

Iowa State has actually played a lot of teams very tough, and I'm sure Oklahoma State felt the same way a few years back, although that game was in Ames.
 
The Jacket said:
Love when people barge into a discussion and demand that it stops because they're "just tellin it like it is!"

Saturday is going to be a lot of fun. In all likelihood by the time we kick off we'll have learned that our slim chances have become none but it won't change a thing about how huge this game is for this season nationally and, more importantly, for our program. I wish we could skip the next three days.
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Really? An undefeated, defending national champion is ranked third behind one loss teams. Why? Because the committee is stupid. I'm not demanding the discussion stops, I'm telling you people to start using the logic the committee is using. If that's pissing in your cheerios, then maybe they needed the shower.
 
There will not be 2 from any conference in the playoff. It defeats the whole point of the playoff. Who thinks it's a good idea for 1 of the 3 Playoff Games to be a rematch or possibly 3rd game between Oregon & Arizona?

These are the only teams I would see as clearly ahead of us:

1. SEC Champ Alabama
2. PAC12 Champ Oregon
3. ACC Champ FSU
4. Big12 Champ TCU or Baylor (Not both)
5. Big10 Champ Ohio St.
6. PAC12 Champ Arizona

If Alabama, FSU, and Ohio St. lose, that leaves a beauty contest between GT, Missouri, and Wisconsin for the final two spots. I like our chances in this scenario.

GT would have wins over FSU (11-1) on a neutral field, UGA (9-3) on the road, and Clemson (9-3) at home and losses to Duke (9-3) at home and UNC (6-6) on the road. Even our narrow victory against Georgia Southern (9-3 Sun Belt Champs) looks pretty good as a secondary OOC win compared to most Power 5 teams schedule.

Missouri would have wins over Alabama 11-2 on a neutral field and Texas A&M 7-5 on the road and ugly losses to UGA (9-3) at home and Indiana (4-8) at home. I do not see how anyone could objectively select Missouri over GT. We have a common opponent in UGA that blew Missouri out on their field and who GT beat on the road. GT played 8 teams with winning records, 5 of which had 9+wins. Missouri only played 5 teams with winning records and three of those were UCF, Toledo, and South Dakota St.

Wisconsin would have wins over a crippled Ohio St. (11-2) on neutral field, Nebraska (9-3) at home and Minnesota (8-4) at home and losses to LSU (8-4) on a neutral field and Northwestern (5-7) on the road. The comparison between GT and Wisconsin is more of a coin flip. GT would have higher quality wins (FSU > crippled OSU, UGA > Nebraska, Clemson > Minnesota) while Wisconsin has better losses (LSU > Duke, UNC = Northwestern).

I like our chances. Look at the results from the 4 common opponents that we share with FSU (Clemson, Miami, NC State, and UVA). I think we have a better shot at them than media thinks.
 
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4 common opponents. NC State.
 
BainbridgeJacket said:
Really? An undefeated, defending national champion is ranked third behind one loss teams. Why? Because the committee is stupid. I'm not demanding the discussion stops, I'm telling you people to start using the logic the committee is using. If that's pissing in your cheerios, then maybe they needed the shower.
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I agree with the "to be the man, you gotta beat the man" sentiment, but I think it is unfair to call the committee stupid. Undefeated, defending Nat'l Champions are usually pounding their opponents into dust. FSU has looked fairly shaky against schedule where your toughest opponents have been Clemson and Louisville. Not that they were ducking people with scheduling. It's not their fault that Oklahoma St., Notre Dame, and Florida ended up having bad years. Also look at their stats [Offensive (46th in yards / 29th in scoring) and Defense (46th in yards / 27th in scoring)], not exactly overwhelming.
 
The Jacket said:
Love when people barge into a discussion and demand that it stops because they're "just tellin it like it is!"

Saturday is going to be a lot of fun. In all likelihood by the time we kick off we'll have learned that our slim chances have become none but it won't change a thing about how huge this game is for this season nationally and, more importantly, for our program. I wish we could skip the next three days.
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We won't know. OSU-Whisky is also at 8:00. But one of the guys attending the game with me is a Wisconsin fan and will tracking the game from his phone. I'm sure he will keep me up to date as our games are the best chances for both teams to possibly make it.
 
In fact with both ACC and Big10 CGs being the last of the day it will likely be very interesting keeping track of both games. Assuming Bama, PAC12 winner and either TCU or Baylor would be in, the results of the 2 8:00 games could likely yield the following results:

FSU & OSU win = FSU in

FSU & Wisc win = FSU in

Tech & OSU win = OSU in

Tech & Wisc win = Tech or Wisc in, but ultimately up to committee

To me, it is 100% clear we have a better resume than Wisconsin in that scenario. I don't know what to expect from the committee.
 
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