Preseason Analysis and Probabilities

MtownJacket

MtownJacket

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I saw attempts at looking at probabilities to break down GTs football season on various boards but I never saw one that actually computed the probabilities of a certain amount of wins given the probability of each game so I decided to do it myself:

http://www.prism.gatech.edu/~tosburn3/gt2009optimistic.xls

http://www.prism.gatech.edu/~tosburn3/gt2009realistic.xls

http://www.prism.gatech.edu/~tosburn3/gt.txt

The last file is code in Python which I used to compute the probabilities. You can download Python 3.0 for free and run the code with your own probabilities to see what you get.
 
Only on a Georgia Tech forum would one find excel spread sheets and python scripts involving football.
 
RamblinWreck09 said:
Only on a Georgia Tech forum would one find excel spread sheets and python scripts involving football.
Click to expand...

Looking back I do feel like a nerd but I was sick all weekend and had nothing else to do. And I'd rather be a nerd than a redneck any day.
 
RamblinWreck09 said:
Only on a Georgia Tech forum would one find excel spread sheets and python scripts involving football.
Click to expand...

Correction: Only on a Georgia Tech forum would one find excel spread sheets and python scripts involving football that manipulated the prognostication to 10+ wins and a shot at the BCS title game ! ! !:roflmao::roflmao::roflmao::drink1::drink1::drink1:
 
MtownJacket said:
I saw attempts at looking at probabilities to break down GTs football season on various boards but I never saw one that actually computed the probabilities of a certain amount of wins given the probability of each game so I decided to do it myself:

http://www.prism.gatech.edu/~tosburn3/gt2009optimistic.xls

http://www.prism.gatech.edu/~tosburn3/gt2009realistic.xls

http://www.prism.gatech.edu/~tosburn3/gt.txt

The last file is code in Python which I used to compute the probabilities. You can download Python 3.0 for free and run the code with your own probabilities to see what you get.
Click to expand...

errr.... What major are you?
 
Ugly code.

Fairly simple stat problem: Given a discrete set of probabilities of size n = 12, what is the discrete probability distribution P(X) of winning X out of n games.
 
I'm a nerd, I like this kind of stuff. I'd take 9 or 10 wins. Though, what is up with the .3 to win the BCS championship game? I like those odds but don't quite believe them.
 
Did you figure in the probability of us playing in the ACCCG in each of your setups?

I like your approach and I think the "optimistic" is more realistic than most GT fans feel comfortable with.

One thing to consider is that for two evenly matched teams, home field advantage is worth more than 5%. I worked up a table of probabilities based on money lines vs. point spread tables from sport books, which should be pretty accurate:

-2 55%
-2.5 57%
-3 59%
-3.5 62%
-4 65%
-4.5 67%
-5 68%
-6 71%
-6.5 72%
-7 74%
-8 77%
-9 78%
-10 80%

So if we're even and playing at home, that should be in the 60-65% range.

I also found that since 1997, GT has about an 88-89% record against non-winning BCS league teams. And that's with our previous teams, not with this one.

Based on my attempt at pretty objective power ratings, I would set the lines about like this for our regular season games, with HFA already factored in:

FSU -2
Miami +1
VT +3
UGA +3
CU +6
NC +8
WF +10
UVA +13
MSU +16
VAND +16
DU +20
JAX +35
 
GoldenTornado said:
Did you figure in the probability of us playing in the ACCCG in each of your setups?

I like your approach and I think the "optimistic" is more realistic than most GT fans feel comfortable with.

One thing to consider is that for two evenly matched teams, home field advantage is worth more than 5%. I worked up a table of probabilities based on money lines vs. point spread tables from sport books, which should be pretty accurate:

-2 55%
-2.5 57%
-3 59%
-3.5 62%
-4 65%
-4.5 67%
-5 68%
-6 71%
-6.5 72%
-7 74%
-8 77%
-9 78%
-10 80%

So if we're even and playing at home, that should be in the 60-65% range.

I also found that since 1997, GT has about an 88-89% record against non-winning BCS league teams. And that's with our previous teams, not with this one.

Based on my attempt at pretty objective power ratings, I would set the lines about like this for our regular season games, with HFA already factored in:

FSU -2
Miami +1
VT +3
UGA +3
CU +6
NC +8
WF +10
UVA +13
MSU +16
VAND +16
DU +20
JAX +35
Click to expand...


I see what you mean by home field advantage but its not just adding 5% to the home team its taking 5% away from the visiting team so its a 10% swing. I actually thought 5% might have been a little high.
 
turbanicusgt said:
I'm a nerd, I like this kind of stuff. I'd take 9 or 10 wins. Though, what is up with the .3 to win the BCS championship game? I like those odds but don't quite believe them.
Click to expand...

I thought .3 was pretty fair. Its the same thing as when we play wake forest we are just in the other team's shoes. I would say that florida playing us would be very similiar to us playing wake.
 
Kyle was trying to say...If you COULD care less, that would imply that you did, infact care at least a little about the codes. Really what you should have said was I COULDN'T care less - because you don't care at all thus making caring less... impossible :)

(ps - not sticking up for Kyle :))
 
TechFan4Life said:
Kyle was trying to say...If you COULD care less, that would imply that you did, infact care at least a little about the codes. Really what you should have said was I COULDN'T care less - because you don't care at all thus making caring less... impossible :)

(ps - not sticking up for Kyle :))
Click to expand...

Interesting point. It makes you wonder how we pick up phrases that people use all the time but make no sense.
 
Change Jax State from .95 to .99

5 out of 100 D2 teams do not beat dI teams.

It is more like 1 in 200 probably.
 
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