Predictor On BC+

ThisIsAtlanta

ThisIsAtlanta

Break In Case Of Emergency
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Oct 18, 2009
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TIA's predictor said:
Georgia Tech :
Summary :
Predicted Points : 41.703
Confidence (Points) : 2.136
Predicted Yards : 581.866
Confidence (Yards) : 29.561
Strength of Schedule : -0.379
Offensive Performance Rating : 12.213
Defensive Performance Rating : -3.742
Offensive Scoring Efficiency : 12.867
Defensive Scoring Efficiency : 14.287
Boston College :
Summary :
Predicted Points : 27.540
Confidence (Points) : 0.094
Predicted Yards : 411.477
Confidence (Yards) : 1.719
Strength of Schedule : 9.739
Offensive Performance Rating : -2.447
Defensive Performance Rating : -11.725
Offensive Scoring Efficiency : 15.594
Defensive Scoring Efficiency : 15.295
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According to this thing, we cover. These are the numbers with the Groh defense, so it will be interesting to see whether we exceed expectations. I think the numbers on offense are realistic enough.

And the rest:

BYU: 19-29 L
UMD: 24-20 W
UNC: 25-41 L
Duke: 38-35 W
UGAy: 33-46 L

4-8. Hopefully we can get some defensive improvement and flip 2 of the 3. BYU seems like the most likely one to flip, IMO, just because they seem to play so poorly away from home. Their defense is for real, but if we manage to put our own defense on the field I am optimistic, because I haven't been super impressed by their offense yet. But I'm worried about UNC and UGAy. We might be able to upset UNC if we can generate pass rush consistently, but I don't know how realistic it is to hope for a win over UGAy this season.

What think you, StingTalk? Realistic expectations? Total gold glasses? Entirely too pessimistic?
 
These guys seem good at what they are doing:
http://thepowerrank.com/predictions/

They use my favorite metric adjusted yards per play. Also some other interesting concepts.

35. Boston College at Georgia Tech. (0.25)
Georgia Tech (62) will beat Boston College (86) by 8.9 at home. Boston College has a 31% chance of beating Georgia Tech.
Click to expand...

Did you ever describe your algorithm somewhere?
 
ThisIsAtlanta said:
According to this thing, we cover. These are the numbers with the Groh defense, so it will be interesting to see whether we exceed expectations. I think the numbers on offense are realistic enough.

And the rest:

BYU: 19-29 L
UMD: 24-20 W
UNC: 25-41 L
Duke: 38-35 W
UGAy: 33-46 L

4-8. Hopefully we can get some defensive improvement and flip 2 of the 3. BYU seems like the most likely one to flip, IMO, just because they seem to play so poorly away from home. Their defense is for real, but if we manage to put our own defense on the field I am optimistic, because I haven't been super impressed by their offense yet. But I'm worried about UNC and UGAy. We might be able to upset UNC if we can generate pass rush consistently, but I don't know how realistic it is to hope for a win over UGAy this season.

What think you, StingTalk? Realistic expectations? Total gold glasses? Entirely too pessimistic?
Click to expand...

Wouldn't that be 5-7? I'm hoping we can split BYU and UNC to squeak out 6-6 and keep the bowl streak alive.
 
Does the numbers include the MTSU game aka the "wtf" factor?

Is it gold-colored-glasses of me to want to see the numbers without that game?
 
cyptomcat said:
These guys seem good at what they are doing:
http://thepowerrank.com/predictions/

They use my favorite metric adjusted yards per play. Also some other interesting concepts.



Did you ever describe your algorithm somewhere?
Click to expand...

I've described my algorithm several times on this site. I have no commercial interests in it as it is, and I'm writing a new one anyway that uses drive data instead of game data (it will also deal in yards per play as the base stat instead of yards per game).

I've seen a couple of power rankings and predictors that use really similar techniques, but every one has it's variances. Mine as it is has some strategic flaws I'm hoping to rectify with the next one.
 
alpha said:
Does the numbers include the MTSU game aka the "wtf" factor?

Is it gold-colored-glasses of me to want to see the numbers without that game?
Click to expand...

BC (25pts, 392yds) GT (43pts, 602yds)
BYU 20-26 L
UMD 26-18 W
UNC: 26-38 L
Duke: 40-32 W
UGAy: 35-42 L

The MTSU game didn't have a whole lot of "wtf" factor to it when Miami and Clemson are sandwiched inbetween. If it was a big outlier it might have swayed it more, but given all we know today it was only slightly below average statistically.
 
MtownJacket said:
Wouldn't that be 5-7? I'm hoping we can split BYU and UNC to squeak out 6-6 and keep the bowl streak alive.
Click to expand...

The Ls and W's are for us, not the other team. It's predicting us to win 2 more and lose 3, which would be 4-8 unless I have been drinking way too much.
 
ThisIsAtlanta said:
The Ls and W's are for us, not the other team. It's predicting us to win 2 more and lose 3, which would be 4-8 unless I have been drinking way too much.
Click to expand...

You're forgetting about the BC prediction which is a W.

So 5-7.
 
GEHJ is one of my favorite fonts. No matter what is going on, he's always ready to deliver some mockery with an ironic pabst. Some might not find that a valuable trait, but in recent climes, I think we need all the mockery we can get.
 
ThisIsAtlanta said:
GEHJ is one of my favorite fonts. No matter what is going on, he's always ready to deliver some mockery with an ironic pabst. Some might not find that a valuable trait, but in recent climes, I think we need all the mockery we can get.
Click to expand...

Plus, I come equipped with my own unique self-ban procedure. Until it gets successfully used against me, I can reasonably assume that my posts are not totally unwelcome!
 
GiveEmHellJackets said:
Plus, I come equipped with my own unique self-ban procedure. Until it gets successfully used against me, I can reasonably assume that my posts are not totally unwelcome!
Click to expand...


GiveEmHellJackets said:
If there is ever a single thread-- any thread-- in which five legit, regular posters say that I should stop posting, I will. No need to compare me to Damarius or GTKyle or any other epic assclown, just get four regulars to agree with you and I am gone.

Simple. Easy. GEHJ rule.
Click to expand...

You should stop posting.
 
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