I don't think I'd touch that. I think we're the better team and are at home, but the way both defenses have played so far (and their inept offense) I don't see either team getting much higher than 20/24 points. So covering 7 wouldn't be a given even if we're in control. Not to mention their tendency the last 5 years to beat us in every strange way imaginable ('08 two personal fouls on their final drive, '10 Nesbitt breaking his arm, '11 Attaochu shot to the face, '12 miracle FG drive to send it to OT).