We may not make the Music City, but it won't be because of Georgia. They are going to the Gator Bowl.
Best analysis I have seen of the ACC bowl picture
http://www.syracuse.com/patrick-stevens/index.ssf/2013/12/acc_bowl_projections_syracuse.html
BCS title game (Pasadena): Florida State. The Seminoles (12-0, 8-0 ACC) are one game away from making this happen. If Florida State defeats Duke in the conference title game, it will reach its first national championship game since 2000. With a loss, it will almost certainly wind up as an at-large team in the Sugar Bowl or Fiesta Bowl.
Orange (Miami): Clemson. The Tigers (10-2, 7-1 ACC) could have made this so much easier for everyone by defeating South Carolina. Instead, Clemson fell 31-17 and left the ACC’s second BCS bid in doubt.
Assuming the SEC (a near-certainty) and the Big Ten (a distinct possibility if the Rose Bowl can nab another Big Ten team if Ohio State plays for the national title) get multiple BCS bids and Northern Illinois wraps up a perfect season and gets one as well, there will be one at-large bid left for a second team from the Big 12, Pac-12 or ACC.
If Florida State wins the ACC as expected, the league’s second option would be Clemson. The Pac-12’s second team might be Oregon or Arizona State. The Big 12’s? Baylor or Oklahoma State. Of course, there’s this argument, too:
The guess here is Clemson. But it’s all subject to change if next weekend is as wacky as this past one was.
Chick-Fil-A (Atlanta): Duke. This much is certain for the Blue Devils (10-2, 6-2): They cannot fall beyond the Sun Bowl. They also can be leapfrogged by Georgia Tech, Miami and Virginia Tech. Do bowl officials in Atlanta, who usually sell out their game with ease, go with the feel-good storyline of a division champ, or pick a better football brand (read: Miami) for ratings appeal against an SEC team?
The guess is Duke, and some recent history is instructive. In 2011, the Chick-Fil-A Bowl could have had Florida State and selected a Virginia team with the same record (and a defeat of Florida State) instead.
Should Duke pull a titanic upset against Florida State, this spot goes to Clemson.
Russell Athletic (Orlando): Miami. This just makes a bunch of sense. The Hurricanes (9-3, 5-3) can chase their first 10-win season since 2003 and not even leave the state to do it. They haven’t been to Orlando for a bowl game since 2009 and there could be some appeal in pairing Miami with future ACC member Louisville. The Hurricanes could go to Atlanta, but they’re not slipping past this spot.
Sun (El Paso): Virginia Tech. The Hokies (8-4, 5-3) have a good national brand, and there’s no chance Georgia Tech returns to western Texas for the third consecutive season. Given the distance from all of the ACC schools, getting fans to travel isn’t as much a factor here as TV presence (there are many Virginia Tech alums in the D.C. area) and a strong history. Both work in the Hokies’ favor. This might be Duke’s landing spot, too.
Belk (Charlotte): North Carolina. Since Duke cannot fall this far and the Tar Heels (6-6, 4-4) are the only other eligible ACC team in the same state as the bowl, this becomes a rather obvious pick for an organization that loves to have an in-state anchor. North Carolina has been to this game three times in the last decade, but not once since 2009.
Music City (Nashville): Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets (7-5, 5-3) are headed to the postseason for the 17th consecutive year. They’ve never wound up in Nashville, and geography is very much on their side considering the remaining four eligible ACC schools represent the league’s northern precincts.
Ultimately, this is a choice between Georgia Tech, Boston College and Syracuse. Because of the ACC’s One-Win Rule (which prevents teams from jumping over a team that finishes more than one game ahead of them in the league standings), Maryland and Pittsburgh cannot hopscotch the Yellow Jackets.
Independence (Shreveport): Boston College. Now it gets murky. Chances are slim anyone out of Boston College, Maryland, Pittsburgh and Syracuse will send a horde of fans to Shreveport, which isn’t the easiest place in the world to reach. All have claim to decent TV markets (particularly if New York is counted for Syracuse).
While the Eagles (7-5, 4-4) perpetually tumble in bowl selection (the One-Win Rule was basically created as a Boston College protection clause), the presence of a star in tailback Andre Williams makes them a bit more appealing. Of course, there are conspiracy theories Maryland will get shipped here as a going-away present from the ACC before it leaves for the Big Ten.
Military (Annapolis): Maryland. If there was a bowl game in Rochester, it would pick Syracuse if it occupied this slot. If there was one in, say, Washington, Pa., it would pick Pittsburgh. But there aren’t. There is a game based in Washington and played in Annapolis, and it is completely logical for this game to nab Maryland (7-5, 3-5) if the opportunity presents itself. Which so long as the black helicopters don’t circle and send the Terrapins to Shreveport, it should next weekend.
At-large landing spots: Pittsburgh and Syracuse. It might not look great if the ACC’s two new members get stuck finding bowls outside of the conference pecking order. Then again, any 6-6 team should be grateful it gets three extra weeks of practice and a 13th game to play courtesy of a bloated bowl schedule.
Among the bowl that could have openings: The Pinstripe Bowl in New York (Notre Dame is a popular target for the Big 12’s empty spot); the Little Caesars Bowl in Detroit (after the Big Ten didn’t produce enough bowl-eligible teams); the Heart of Dallas Bowl (this opens if there are two Big Ten BCS bids); the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego (after Army didn’t win six games); and the Beef O’Brady’s Bowl in St. Petersburg, Fla. (if Rutgers and/or Southern Methodist lose next week).
The only other power conference league with leftover teams is the Pac-12, so whoever is left out from the ACC won’t have much high-profile competition. Other leagues with a surplus of bowl-eligible teams: Conference USA, the Mid-American, the Mountain West and the Sun Belt.
