but looking at the rosters and coaches GT and VT are a tier above the rest of the Coastal IMHO. Their defense is going to be nasty good this year. And it would be tough for their offense to be worse.
I agree. I think both will have very good seasons. I see GT winning between 8-11 games and VT about the same (9-10 games). GT should sweep Alcorn, Tulane, a weak Duke, and UVA. We have tough games @ ND, @ Clemson, FSU, VT, and Georgie. If we win 3 out of that bunch and handle the middling Coastal teams of Pitt, UNC, and Miami that's a special 10 win season. And if we are good enough to win 10 why not 11? VT's got tough games against Ohio State, ECU, and GT. But everything else on the schedule they should win (on paper). They get to play NC State and BC in the Atlantic, which isn't the easiest draw, but it's a lot easier than FSU Clemson. As a result, Thursday, Nov 12, will likely decide the Coastal.
The next tier, in my opinion are UNC and Pitt. Both have everything in place to have a break out year and challenge GT and VT, but UNC has always had the players to do this, and hasn't done it, while Pitt is on their 5th coach since Paul Johnson was hired (although, to be fair, one of them didn't coach a game because he was arrested on domestic violence charges). I think UNC is in the 7-9 range and Pitt in the 6-8 range.
I think that Miami and Duke will have bad seasons, given their schedules. If Duke didn't play an SEC out of conference schedule amongst P5 schools (Tulane, NC Central, Northwestern, Army OOC), and they'd struggle to make a bowl. That's five wins. They only need to beat one coastal team to go bowling. Miami can't slip up with Nebraska, VT, FSU, GT, and Clemson on the schedule. That's probably 4 losses in there, maybe 5, but I think they are good enough to steal one of those. Add in Cincinnati, and the rest of the Coastal and Miami has to win most of its games against Cincy, Duke, UVA, UNC, and Pitt to go bowling. I think they'll make a bowl, but I don't see more than 7 wins on the schedule for them. If they get the breaks they could win 8, but I see them at 6-7.
UVA could have a good team and still not make a bowl game. They have UCLA, Notre Dame, Boise State, GT, Louisville, and VT on the schedule. Even if they steal one of those, they'd still have to go 5 out of 6 against the rest of the schedule.
Coastal finishes:
1. GT
2. VT
3. UNC
4. Pitt
5. Virginia
6. Miami
7. Duke