Predictor Week 2

ThisIsAtlanta

ThisIsAtlanta

Break In Case Of Emergency
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In last week's thread the predictor went 9-6 ATS, 13-3 ML, and correctly predicted 2 upsets (Vanderbilt and Nebraska). Earlier today I found an enormous error in the code introduced over the offseason and corrected it, so you can expect all of these picks to be awful, I guess!

Predictor said:
TULN vs GT(-28.5)
Week 2 of 2015

TULN - Offense
Yardage: 327 ypg
Performance: -8 (higher is better)
Scoring: 11
Efficiency: 28 (lower is better)
Performance: -72 (higher is better)
TULN - Defense
Yardage: 428 ypg allowed
Performance: -1 (higher is better)
Scoring: 30
Efficiency: 14 (higher is better)
Performance: 5 (higher is better)

GT - Offense
Yardage: 481 ypg
Performance: 46 (higher is better)
Scoring: 41
Efficiency: 11 (lower is better)
Performance: 27 (higher is better)
GT - Defense
Yardage: 340 ypg allowed
Performance: 28 (higher is better)
Scoring: 17
Efficiency: 19 (higher is better)
Performance: 51 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: TULN 5 (228 yards), GT 52 (614 yards)
TULN best case: TULN 8 (300 yards), GT 39 (485 yards)
GT best case: TULN 4 (193 yards), GT 61 (710 yards)

TULN talent: 2861
GT talent: 5051
TULN talent of schedule: 3763
GT talent of schedule: 7416

Suggested talent adjustment: 29% towards GT best case
Final: TULN 5 (218 yards), GT 54 (642 yards)
Click to expand...

The prediction prior to me fixing the error was 34-15 good guys. That's what prompted me to look for an error in the first place.

Some other big games:

Predictor said:
BUFF vs PSU(-21)
Week 2 of 2015

BUFF - Offense
Yardage: 393 ypg
Performance: 2 (higher is better)
Scoring: 35
Efficiency: 11 (lower is better)
Performance: 24 (higher is better)
BUFF - Defense
Yardage: 314 ypg allowed
Performance: 27 (higher is better)
Scoring: 23
Efficiency: 13 (higher is better)
Performance: -22 (higher is better)

PSU - Offense
Yardage: 265 ypg
Performance: -30 (higher is better)
Scoring: 14
Efficiency: 18 (lower is better)
Performance: -14 (higher is better)
PSU - Defense
Yardage: 256 ypg allowed
Performance: 40 (higher is better)
Scoring: 19
Efficiency: 13 (higher is better)
Performance: 2 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: BUFF 21 (218 yards), PSU 13 (162 yards)
BUFF best case: BUFF 25 (259 yards), PSU 10 (111 yards)
PSU best case: BUFF 15 (156 yards), PSU 15 (217 yards)

BUFF talent: 1506
PSU talent: 6984
BUFF talent of schedule: 1612
PSU talent of schedule: 6056

Suggested talent adjustment: 49% towards PSU best case
Final: BUFF 18 (187 yards), PSU 14 (189 yards)
Click to expand...

The broken prediction had Buffalo as well. I want to believe!

Predictor said:
LSU vs MSST(+4.5)
Week 2 of 2015

LSU - Offense
Yardage: 299 ypg
Performance: -17 (higher is better)
Scoring: 10
Efficiency: 27 (lower is better)
Performance: -47 (higher is better)
LSU - Defense
Yardage: 262 ypg allowed
Performance: 71 (higher is better)
Scoring: 12
Efficiency: 20 (higher is better)
Performance: 59 (higher is better)

MSST - Offense
Yardage: 477 ypg
Performance: 31 (higher is better)
Scoring: 32
Efficiency: 14 (lower is better)
Performance: -1 (higher is better)
MSST - Defense
Yardage: 393 ypg allowed
Performance: 0 (higher is better)
Scoring: 18
Efficiency: 21 (higher is better)
Performance: 46 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: LSU 7 (289 yards), MSST 8 (225 yards)
LSU best case: LSU 10 (319 yards), MSST 4 (118 yards)
MSST best case: LSU 5 (236 yards), MSST 16 (338 yards)

LSU talent: 11816
MSST talent: 7015
LSU talent of schedule: 10268
MSST talent of schedule: 6577

Suggested talent adjustment: 42% towards LSU best case
Final: LSU 8 (302 yards), MSST 6 (179 yards)
Click to expand...

That is ugly.

Predictor said:
WAKE vs SYR(-4.5)
Week 2 of 2015

WAKE - Offense
Yardage: 303 ypg
Performance: -7 (higher is better)
Scoring: 18
Efficiency: 16 (lower is better)
Performance: -5 (higher is better)
WAKE - Defense
Yardage: 352 ypg allowed
Performance: 0 (higher is better)
Scoring: 23
Efficiency: 14 (higher is better)
Performance: 7 (higher is better)

SYR - Offense
Yardage: 252 ypg
Performance: -27 (higher is better)
Scoring: 15
Efficiency: 16 (lower is better)
Performance: -12 (higher is better)
SYR - Defense
Yardage: 278 ypg allowed
Performance: 46 (higher is better)
Scoring: 20
Efficiency: 13 (higher is better)
Performance: 0 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: WAKE 12 (174 yards), SYR 13 (233 yards)
WAKE best case: WAKE 18 (257 yards), SYR 10 (179 yards)
SYR best case: WAKE 9 (127 yards), SYR 15 (254 yards)

WAKE talent: 4432
SYR talent: 4185
WAKE talent of schedule: 5517
SYR talent of schedule: 5111

Suggested talent adjustment: 3% towards WAKE best case
Final: WAKE 12 (177 yards), SYR 13 (231 yards)
Click to expand...

This weekend is going to be a slow one.

Predictor said:
ORST vs MICH(-16.5)
Week 2 of 2015

ORST - Offense
Yardage: 392 ypg
Performance: -2 (higher is better)
Scoring: 24
Efficiency: 16 (lower is better)
Performance: -17 (higher is better)
ORST - Defense
Yardage: 443 ypg allowed
Performance: 0 (higher is better)
Scoring: 34
Efficiency: 12 (higher is better)
Performance: -6 (higher is better)

MICH - Offense
Yardage: 343 ypg
Performance: -9 (higher is better)
Scoring: 19
Efficiency: 17 (lower is better)
Performance: -22 (higher is better)
MICH - Defense
Yardage: 321 ypg allowed
Performance: 23 (higher is better)
Scoring: 23
Efficiency: 13 (higher is better)
Performance: 0 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: ORST 23 (287 yards), MICH 22 (348 yards)
ORST best case: ORST 25 (316 yards), MICH 19 (296 yards)
MICH best case: ORST 21 (240 yards), MICH 25 (389 yards)

ORST talent: 5207
MICH talent: 9049
ORST talent of schedule: 6443
MICH talent of schedule: 6815

Suggested talent adjustment: 21% towards MICH best case
Final: ORST 22 (277 yards), MICH 23 (356 yards)
Click to expand...

Warning, Hoke stats still present and in healthy force.

Predictor said:
BSU vs BYU(+2.5)
Week 2 of 2015

BSU - Offense
Yardage: 474 ypg
Performance: 28 (higher is better)
Scoring: 44
Efficiency: 10 (lower is better)
Performance: 36 (higher is better)
BSU - Defense
Yardage: 327 ypg allowed
Performance: 27 (higher is better)
Scoring: 24
Efficiency: 13 (higher is better)
Performance: 2 (higher is better)

BYU - Offense
Yardage: 466 ypg
Performance: 8 (higher is better)
Scoring: 39
Efficiency: 11 (lower is better)
Performance: 11 (higher is better)
BYU - Defense
Yardage: 382 ypg allowed
Performance: 11 (higher is better)
Scoring: 24
Efficiency: 15 (higher is better)
Performance: 24 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: BSU 40 (492 yards), BYU 25 (325 yards)
BSU best case: BSU 49 (582 yards), BYU 21 (260 yards)
BYU best case: BSU 31 (421 yards), BYU 29 (367 yards)

BSU talent: 4527
BYU talent: 4102
BSU talent of schedule: 3599
BYU talent of schedule: 4163

Suggested talent adjustment: 0% towards BYU best case
Final: BSU 40 (492 yards), BYU 25 (326 yards)
Click to expand...

Yeah I think I broke it.
 
Last edited:
Predictor said:
UVA vs ND(-12.5)
Week 2 of 2015

UVA - Offense
Yardage: 330 ypg
Performance: -13 (higher is better)
Scoring: 18
Efficiency: 17 (lower is better)
Performance: -8 (higher is better)
UVA - Defense
Yardage: 426 ypg allowed
Performance: -1 (higher is better)
Scoring: 31
Efficiency: 13 (higher is better)
Performance: 0 (higher is better)

ND - Offense
Yardage: 467 ypg
Performance: 27 (higher is better)
Scoring: 32
Efficiency: 14 (lower is better)
Performance: 2 (higher is better)
ND - Defense
Yardage: 434 ypg allowed
Performance: -12 (higher is better)
Scoring: 33
Efficiency: 12 (higher is better)
Performance: 0 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: UVA 26 (375 yards), ND 41 (556 yards)
UVA best case: UVA 33 (428 yards), ND 32 (475 yards)
ND best case: UVA 22 (326 yards), ND 48 (620 yards)

UVA talent: 6754
ND talent: 11024
UVA talent of schedule: 8321
ND talent of schedule: 7031

Suggested talent adjustment: 14% towards ND best case
Final: UVA 26 (367 yards), ND 42 (565 yards)
Click to expand...

Color me shocked if UVA cracks 350+ yards. The predictor is looking for the return of last year's ND defense here.

Predictor said:
SCAR vs UK(-7.5)
Week 2 of 2015

SCAR - Offense
Yardage: 483 ypg
Performance: 38 (higher is better)
Scoring: 25
Efficiency: 19 (lower is better)
Performance: -24 (higher is better)
SCAR - Defense
Yardage: 466 ypg allowed
Performance: -13 (higher is better)
Scoring: 25
Efficiency: 18 (higher is better)
Performance: 42 (higher is better)

UK - Offense
Yardage: 365 ypg
Performance: -3 (higher is better)
Scoring: 28
Efficiency: 13 (lower is better)
Performance: 23 (higher is better)
UK - Defense
Yardage: 496 ypg allowed
Performance: -11 (higher is better)
Scoring: 42
Efficiency: 11 (higher is better)
Performance: -17 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: SCAR 44 (680 yards), UK 27 (448 yards)
SCAR best case: SCAR 59 (750 yards), UK 22 (405 yards)
UK best case: SCAR 34 (537 yards), UK 32 (518 yards)

SCAR talent: 9211
UK talent: 6033
SCAR talent of schedule: 9173
UK talent of schedule: 7363

Suggested talent adjustment: 24% towards SCAR best case
Final: SCAR 47 (697 yards), UK 26 (437 yards)
Click to expand...

700 yards sound outlandish to you? Maybe, but consider that UL Lafayette had 479 yards and gave up 4 turnovers. I think South Carolina is a little overrated by the predictor, even still.

Predictor said:
WSU vs RUTG(-2.5)
Week 2 of 2015

WSU - Offense
Yardage: 493 ypg
Performance: 20 (higher is better)
Scoring: 25
Efficiency: 19 (lower is better)
Performance: -28 (higher is better)
WSU - Defense
Yardage: 416 ypg allowed
Performance: -8 (higher is better)
Scoring: 40
Efficiency: 10 (higher is better)
Performance: -22 (higher is better)

RUTG - Offense
Yardage: 354 ypg
Performance: -6 (higher is better)
Scoring: 29
Efficiency: 12 (lower is better)
Performance: 11 (higher is better)
RUTG - Defense
Yardage: 397 ypg allowed
Performance: -7 (higher is better)
Scoring: 33
Efficiency: 12 (higher is better)
Performance: -7 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: WSU 36 (534 yards), RUTG 48 (395 yards)
WSU best case: WSU 48 (625 yards), RUTG 40 (366 yards)
RUTG best case: WSU 29 (478 yards), RUTG 67 (432 yards)

WSU talent: 4566
RUTG talent: 6252
WSU talent of schedule: 6284
RUTG talent of schedule: 5301

Suggested talent adjustment: 3% towards RUTG best case
Final: WSU 35 (532 yards), RUTG 49 (396 yards)
Click to expand...

That pick means the predictor expects huge turnovers or special teams plays to put Rutgers on the short field with high frequency in this game. Given how Washington State looked last week, I'm not sure it'll even be this close.



Predictor said:
OKLA vs TENN(+1)
Week 2 of 2015

OKLA - Offense
Yardage: 524 ypg
Performance: 7 (higher is better)
Scoring: 38
Efficiency: 13 (lower is better)
Performance: 0 (higher is better)
OKLA - Defense
Yardage: 366 ypg allowed
Performance: 18 (higher is better)
Scoring: 19
Efficiency: 18 (higher is better)
Performance: 23 (higher is better)

TENN - Offense
Yardage: 462 ypg
Performance: 18 (higher is better)
Scoring: 32
Efficiency: 14 (lower is better)
Performance: 1 (higher is better)
TENN - Defense
Yardage: 438 ypg allowed
Performance: -7 (higher is better)
Scoring: 25
Efficiency: 17 (higher is better)
Performance: 10 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: OKLA 31 (536 yards), TENN 20 (401 yards)
OKLA best case: OKLA 37 (604 yards), TENN 15 (362 yards)
TENN best case: OKLA 27 (471 yards), TENN 23 (450 yards)

OKLA talent: 9995
TENN talent: 10473
OKLA talent of schedule: 5086
TENN talent of schedule: 7451

Suggested talent adjustment: 14% towards TENN best case
Final: OKLA 30 (527 yards), TENN 21 (408 yards)
Click to expand...

Both teams stats suggest they sort of just take what they are given on both sides of the ball. Dead even on talent, Oklahoma plays a slightly easier schedule. This is one of those bounce of the ball games.

Predictor said:
ORE vs MSU(-3.5)
Week 2 of 2015

ORE - Offense
Yardage: 569 ypg
Performance: 38 (higher is better)
Scoring: 51
Efficiency: 11 (lower is better)
Performance: 27 (higher is better)
ORE - Defense
Yardage: 393 ypg allowed
Performance: 4 (higher is better)
Scoring: 24
Efficiency: 16 (higher is better)
Performance: 13 (higher is better)

MSU - Offense
Yardage: 445 ypg
Performance: 37 (higher is better)
Scoring: 37
Efficiency: 11 (lower is better)
Performance: 19 (higher is better)
MSU - Defense
Yardage: 313 ypg allowed
Performance: 21 (higher is better)
Scoring: 18
Efficiency: 16 (higher is better)
Performance: 31 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: ORE 30 (457 yards), MSU 36 (522 yards)
ORE best case: ORE 37 (631 yards), MSU 31 (417 yards)
MSU best case: ORE 20 (361 yards), MSU 40 (602 yards)

ORE talent: 9293
MSU talent: 7151
ORE talent of schedule: 5453
MSU talent of schedule: 7262

Suggested talent adjustment: 1% towards ORE best case
Final: ORE 30 (459 yards), MSU 35 (520 yards)
Click to expand...

The predictor loves defense.

As last week, these are generated using several weeks of data from last year, although this one does include week 1 of this year. I wouldn't bet on these.

Let me know if you'd like to see any others.
 
You told me not to bet the predictor last week. Thanks a lot.

This weekend is going to be a slow one.
Click to expand...

I just checked the AFN schedule of games. It is not good. I think AFN is mad at me and punishing me with picking some very ööööty matchups.

OU - UT, no.
TCU vs. Stephen Austin, yes.
LSU - Miss St no.
UGA - Vandy, yes.

Why?
 
I don't think LSU/MSST is going to be very good, the above prediction aside. MSST is definitely going to get crushed by LSU's defense, and LSU might not be able to field a capable QB. In fact, I'm glad it's a home game week, because there's a real chance we only get 2 or 3 good games outside of random upsets.
 
Have you rerun last week with the code fix to see how it would have done?
 
ee8384 said:
Have you rerun last week with the code fix to see how it would have done?
Click to expand...

Aside from it predicting WKU to score 70 points on Vanderbilt...

10-5 ATS, 13-3 ML, and 2 upsets (Vanderbilt, Nebraska).

So, much the same. The difference is it picked Duke to cover when the fix was made. That, and I think I forgot to count its Texas vs ND prediction at the top of the thread, which I will now fix.
 
05GTCorndog said:
You told me not to bet the predictor last week. Thanks a lot.



I just checked the AFN schedule of games. It is not good. I think AFN is mad at me and punishing me with picking some very ööööty matchups.

OU - UT, no.
TCU vs. Stephen Austin, yes.
LSU - Miss St no.
UGA - Vandy, yes.

Why?
Click to expand...

Good ole AFN. I'm sure there will be a sweet J-lo movie marathon on after the games.
 
Interesting. So basically LSU vs MSU is a repeat of the famous 9-6 LSU/Bama game.
 
If the predictor is right, anyways. It only has data from last season on LSU and some recruiting rankings. Not much to go on. Given how MSST's defense looked against Southern Miss, Fournette might just run for 2 trillion yards and give LSU a 50 point win regardless of who is in at QB.
 
you should run enormous error predictor against accurate predictor.
 
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