floridajacket
The Real DB Cooper
- Joined
- Oct 14, 2005
- Messages
- 17,799
No, I just don't understand it is all. You're predicting a 10-2 with a loss to uga. I think Clemson, FSU, VT and UGA are all gonna be hard games. I just can't find any other reason than conditioning for why you would pick uga as the only other loss. Unless you actually think they're a top 10 team ahead of the others.
Well, UGA is the only one of those teams I haven't watched at all. Wasn't in the mood to watch the USC game yesterday.
Games I watched for Clemson, FSU and VT were Louisville, BC and tOSU. I'm not exactly overwhelmed by those teams, except for FSU's defense. GT has also beaten UGA two times in 15 years, with a number of victories against Clemson and a few against VT during that time.
The issue with predicting games is every game is normally distributed around the point spread, with an SD of 15 points. So to have a 90% chance of beating a team, you have to be around 18 points better on average.
I said 10-2 trying to think of which teams Tech is worse than and which Tech is better. If Tech and the other team gives their mean performance, then Tech may only be worse on average than UGA. With the variance added in though, Tech will play below average in some of the games they're favored. So 8-4 to 9-3 may be more likely.
Man, I just made an off-the-cuff comment which I thought was being optimistic. I didn't put much thought into it. Sorry to have pissed you off so much.