coit's Butthurt Trading Contest

coit

Y’all got any more of that D Fence?
Ban Hammer'd
Joined
Nov 29, 2007
Messages
88,316
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***** EDIT: Using this thread as the official rules. Ask questions in
***** the thread and adjustments will be added to this post.

***** SEP 02 - Adding rule that trades must occur at a price within
***** 10% of the current price.

***** SEP 12 - Corrected the maximum butthurt movement values

***** SEP 26 - Required a minimum trade of 10 shares to result in
***** a change in market price.
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Starting Portfolio

From the preseason probability polls, voters are awarded either $10,000 or 100 shares of Butthurt depending on whether you voted higher or lower than the average vote tally for each game. So, this rewards the folks that voted each week. Butthurt will begin the season at $100 a share, so that everyone will start the season with the same value for each game they voted on. Some will be more butthurt than others.

To further reward those that voted realistically, bonus cash or shares are given to those who voted closest to the average for that game. So if you are within 0.2 above the average, you get a $1,000 bonus. If you voted within 0.2 below, you get 10 additional Butthurt shares.

Butthurt Share Price Weekly Adjustment

The Butthurt share price is adjusted each week depending on how we do relative to the average vote and the spread.

If we win a game predicted < 0.5 = Butthurt drops by 25%
If we win a game predicted > 0.5 = Butthurt drops by 12.5%

If we lose a game predicted < 0.5 = Butthurt rises by 25%
If we lose a game predicted > 0.5 = Butthurt rises by 50%

If we beat the spread, the above factors are reduced or increased by 20%. And vice versa for not beating the spread. Butthurt could move as much as 70% up or 45% down each week.

For each consecutive win, a Butthurt bank will accumulate at 10% per win. At the end of a winning streak, the Butthurt bank percentage will be added to the other percentage for the total weekly adjustment.

Butthurt Trading

Each week, people can trade Butthurt for cash with each other at the going rate. Trades have to be in by game time each week, and no trading during the game. Trades can also be made at a price +/- 10% of the current price. To illustrate, suppose you believe that GT will win the upcoming game, and share prices will fall. You might be willing to sell for below market value to someone so as not to lose the full amount after the weekly adjustment. The current Butthurt market price will be that of the most recent trade of at least 10 shares.

Trades will be only as documented in the Weekly BTC thread, with one party announcing the trade details and the other party confirming by replying to that post.

We can track each person's portfolio based on their cash and shares on hand. And so as not to penalize those that haven't voted every week, we can also track percent increase in portfolio value.

The Contest

The contest will be measured two ways. First by the total increase in portfolio value, and second by the percentage increase in portfolio value.

Here's are the starting portfolios. There are a total of 58100 shares of Butthurt.



A few interesting points. A number of folks are at the highest starting value of $132,000. Most cash on hand are the folks that typically voted 0.9 every time, such as @JJacket and @GTRules, with $123,000. Surprisingly, @Diseqc was beaten out for most starting Butthurt by @gtfan1147. He was consistently under the average, but only by a little.
 
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Is there a way to short the market?

Otherwise, this sounds like fun!

I'm open to ideas. That are easy to track anyway. I suppose that we could offer the chance for a limited number of short sells each week. I think we would need to limit it, since the market will be at least somewhat predictable. And maybe make the short sellers have to buy at the next week's price no matter what.
 
Ok so I busted my ass off all weekend trying to put a value on butthurt and I came up with some ideas but haven't made a breakthrough yet. The problem is your forecasting methods only works for futures. You're predicting what the butthurt will be, but that's not necessarily what the butthurt will be. The true amount of butthurt is what's generated on the spot for that weekend, you can't just say this is what the butthurt is because this is the difference between the poll and the outcome. When the team gets on a roll, the first loss generates a lot more butthurt. If the team were to lose 3 in a row butthurt plateaus and does not keep increasing because people stop giving a öööö. Rivalries have different amount of butthurt. Whether we have a chance to make a bowl or Acc championship or potentially playoffs and then not making those have different amounts of butthurt. Not to mention, you're not considering injuries, dwag wins or losses, Acc ooc losses, sec hype, how badly we beat an opponent, how close we were, whether it's a streak of losses to the same opponent, what did the GTAA do, what did they not do, how many times did wreck em apologize for making a video so late, what song they played at the game and why did they play that and why not the other one you liked, attendance levels not being good enough, too many opposing fans, too many empty seats, frats not making it on time, uniforms not being good enough, chicken wire helmets, why can't we bring the gold jersey backs, what kind of ööööed gold jerseys did they bring back, we want the throwback, don't wear the throwbacks we always lose, why don't we get any love from the media, we always öööö the bed when we get love from the media. So your butthurt prediction contest is just a fancier prediction contest because at the end the butthurt levels will always be higher than what you predict.
When you're on a site full of people who generate butthurt out of thin air, it's kinda hard to build a trading platform on it. Because at the end of the day, butthurt is free on stingtalk.
 
The more I think about this, the better the idea of this makes sense. I think it would be a fun but irreverent prediction contest. Let's make this work!
 
Lemme give you an example and make it easier to understand. If, let's say for the sake of argument Tech was 7-0 going into October 29 and lost to Duke on that day, butthurt would enormous. Because the fanbase would have playoff aspirations and losing to Duke, especially for the 3rd year in a row, would be the end of the world here. If Tech was 6-1 with 1 being no conference loss, and lost to Duke, and on the same day Florida beat the öööö out of uga, the butthurt would not be as bad. Yes there would be butthurt but at least we didn't give up an undefeated streak up, we might still make Acc and uga just got demolished. If we were to beat Duke, but lost Justin Thomas and uga routed Florida, butthurt would be higher than what your model suggests.
Do you guys see what I'm saying? We'd have to plan every scenario for the next 4 months.
 
Lemme give you an example and make it easier to understand. If, let's say for the sake of argument Tech was 7-0 going into October 29 and lost to Duke on that day, butthurt would enormous. Because the fanbase would have playoff aspirations and losing to Duke, especially for the 3rd year in a row, would be the end of the world here. If Tech was 6-1 with 1 being no conference loss, and lost to Duke, and on the same day Florida beat the öööö out of uga, the butthurt would not be as bad. Yes there would be butthurt but at least we didn't give up an undefeated streak up, we might still make Acc and uga just got demolished. If we were to beat Duke, but lost Justin Thomas and uga routed Florida, butthurt would be higher than what your model suggests.
Do you guys see what I'm saying? We'd have to plan every scenario for the next 4 months.

I completely get what you are saying but as you point out there is no easy way of capturing every butthurt nuance.

We could have an accumulating bank of butthurt with each consecutive win that would further inflate the price of butthurt after a loss. What about that?
 
So, Butthurt could move as much as 60% up or down each week. We could adjust those if they are too harsh.

Too harsh? During the Great Butthurt Rally of Middle Tennessee, butthurt increased by at least 800% over the course of four hours.
 
To many tl;dr posts ITT. Going from the thread title alone, I have nothing I wish to trade for coit's butthurt.
 
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