5.5

I mean, it's just vegas. As has been repeated ad nauseam, they ain't truly going for accurate predictions.
 
If I can find it, at least 4 figures on tech over and uga under (10.5)
 
Miami is an under bet at 10 IMO.

Rest of the Coastal:
VT 8.5
Duke 6.5
Pitt 5.5
UNC 5
UVa 5

Other GT FBS opponents:
U(sic)GA 10.5
Bowling Green 5.5
Clemson 11
Louisville 7
USF 8.5
 
G776T said:
If I can find it, at least 4 figures on tech over and uga under (10.5)
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I'm thinking the same thing.

It's a good omen for the year when GT comes in with no expectations and uGA comes in expecting to play for a natty.
 
gtphd said:
I'm thinking the same thing.

It's a good omen for the year when GT comes in with no expectations and uGA comes in expecting to play for a natty.
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Agreed.

Though to be perfectly frank I look forward to the day when those expectations are reversed.
 
Wow. I've never bet one of these before, but I may have to do it this year. That is REALLY low.
 
johncu said:
Wow. I've never bet one of these before, but I may have to do it this year. That is REALLY low.
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Until you look at our last 3 seasons, 3, 9, and 5 wins.

Yes, we should blow well past that though. We should be 4 and 1 at worst after the first 5. Surely we can pull at least 2 more out of the last 7.
 
BranMart said:
Until you look at our last 3 seasons, 3, 9, and 5 wins.

Yes, we should blow well past that though. We should be 4 and 1 at worst after the first 5. Surely we can pull at least 2 more out of the last 7.
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The 3 and 5 win seasons are the reason for that 5.5 line. I think the other 30ish seasons in CPJs career (especially 2008-2014) are a better predictor than those two years, but I could be wrong. I guess we'll see.
 
I get the 3 & 5 win seasons being the reason for the total, but who is betting on the under, especially for the line to be moving in that direction? The amount of returning experience we have is rare for a college team. When you look at our success (especially offensively), that's quite a good predictor. Great examples are 2014 where we came from 7-6 after a string of losses and identity confusion with the Vad Lee experiment, a QB that no one was hyping (JT), yet returned a bunch of experience (especially offensively) and mauled people. Then 2015 where we had the momentum and another year under JT yet had to totally redefine our backs and receiver position (plus the injury bug) and replace Shaq Mason. Last year was bad, but we competed better than our win % would suggest. Now we're hopefully entering with a line that will have built some depth and has enough experience (Stick's loss hurts, but hopefully more than offset with DeFoor joining the fold, Marshall returning, and a bunch of other guys having more of a clue of what to do and better S&C). We have a QB that is being actively disparaged yet, despite the poor stats in certain areas, would only need to make small adjustments and better decisions to massively improve -- basically the kind of thing a year of experience often provides. ST is still a concern but can only improve. Defense, well, that's a matter of opinion, although I personally couldn't imagine Woody performing worse than Roof did. Although we did get poor fortune last year, especially with the weather, you also make your own luck. The best way to do that is through experience.
 
texstinger said:
Jeez, I think it is really sad that there are low expectations for our school.

Really sad.
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Let me start by saying there are a lot of people on this board that know a lot more about our team than a book in Vegas knows. That said, their number at 5.5 has little to do with how many games they think we can or cannot win. The book is establishing a number that he hopes will get nearly equal wagers for the over and the under scenarios. The book is actually trying to play an educated guessing game on how many wins the general public thinks we might win. And that is what makes this sad. The 5.5 speaks to the idea that approximately 50% of the betting public is likely to be ready to bet the under. Looking at the schedule, that translates to beating Alcorn State and Bowling Green, and then3.5 others. So Vegas thinks that it is realistic that the public thinks we're only good for 3.5 wins.
 
Alcorn St
S. Florida
Bowling Green
Pitt
and 2 of
UVA, Puke, UNC, Louisville.

I'd play the Over.
 
I would not get too frisky betting on the over. We will be big favorites in 2 games (Alcorn State, Bowling Green), slight favorite in 1 game (Virginia), toss ups in 4 games (USF - away, Pitt - away, Duke, NC - away), slight underdogs in 3 games (VT, Louisville, Miami) and big underdogs in 2 games (Clemson, UGA). I can see why our line is 5.5. It really depends on what kind of roll we go on, 9-3 is possible, but so is 3-9.
 
Yukonwreck said:
Let me start by saying there are a lot of people on this board that know a lot more about our team than a book in Vegas knows. That said, their number at 5.5 has little to do with how many games they think we can or cannot win. The book is establishing a number that he hopes will get nearly equal wagers for the over and the under scenarios. The book is actually trying to play an educated guessing game on how many wins the general public thinks we might win. And that is what makes this sad. The 5.5 speaks to the idea that approximately 50% of the betting public is likely to be ready to bet the under. Looking at the schedule, that translates to beating Alcorn State and Bowling Green, and then3.5 others. So Vegas thinks that it is realistic that the public thinks we're only good for 3.5 wins.
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While that's generally true, it was explained on one of these boards that Vegas also makes bets. It makes sense, too. They collect a whole bunch of info and have access to things most people don't and are absent homerism, so they can probably tell when a betting line based on public placing even bets on either side is out of line with reality. Of course, they still have to pay themselves from those on the losing end of a bet, so their money moves the line as well. Now... This is what concerns me here. Either the public is really down on us to move the line down from 6 -- or Vegas is.
 
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