18in32
Petard Hoister
- Joined
- May 23, 2010
- Messages
- 27,979
TLDR: Not only must we beat Miami, but Pitt must lose to VT and (in three weeks) Miami. If Pitt beats Miami, then they must've lost to Wake – and we also have to rely upon a bunch of other factors. (And of course we need VT to lose to Miami or UVA.)
Here's a super long post explaining why, and all the other relevant scenarios to our chances. I realize it is tediously long and some of this has been discussed elsewhere, but I thought it would be helpful to 'show my work' so we can all see where the conclusions are coming from. Here are the current Coastal standings at the end of the day today, and each team's remaining games.
Pitt – 4-1 (VT, Wake, Miami)
UVA – 4-2 (GT, VT)
VT – 3-2 (Pitt, Miami, UVA)
GT – 3-3 (Miami, UVA)
Miami – 2-3 (GT, VT, Pitt)
Duke – 2-3 (UNC, Clemson, Wake)
UNC – 1-5 (Duke, NCSU)
Step 1: Pitt must lose at least 2 of remaining 3 games
First, we only have a chance if the Coastal champ finishes 5-3. With that in mind, (1) UNC is already disqualified, (2) Duke gets 4 losses after losing to Clemson, and (3) Miami gets 4 losses after losing to us. As for (4) UVA, we will give them their 3d loss, so we would win a head-to-head tiebreak over them. If (5) VT loses just one more game (to Pitt, Miami or UVA), then they have 3 losses and we also win a head-to-head tiebreak over them.
That means (6) Pitt is by far our biggest problem. If Pitt loses one or none of its remaining games (VT, Wake, Miami), then they have fewer than three losses, and we're out. If they lose all three of their remaining games, then they finish with four losses and we win (unless VT wins out).
Step 2: We need VT to beat Pitt. Then VT must win one of its two other games, unless Pitt loses both its other two games
The really complicated scenario is Pitt losing two of their remaining three games. That puts them at 5-3 and means they have the head-to-head tiebreak advantage over us – but might there be multi-team tiebreak scenarios where we end up on top?
If Pitt beats VT, Pitt wins a Pitt/VT/GT tiebreak since Pitt beat both VT and GT. (We also lose if the three-way tie ends up being Pitt, UVA and GT. Since UVA lost to both of us, they're removed, which resolves to us and Pitt, which we then lose. We also lose in the very unlikely event that Duke wins out. Both Duke and Pitt beat us, so we're removed, and then Duke loses the head-to-head with Pitt. There are no other 5-3 three-way tie possibilities that include us.)
What if VT beats Pitt, though? In that event, a Pitt/VT/GT tiebreak couldn't be resolved on head-to-head grounds, since each team was 1-1 against the others.
Step 3: If Pitt loses to VT & Miami, we win regardless of the Pitt/Wake outcome
The second tiebreaker is record within the Coastal. We would be 4-2 in the Coastal, as would be VT. But for Pitt it will depend on how they split the Wake and Miami games. If Pitt loses to VT, beats Wake, then loses to Miami, they'll be 3-3 in the Coastal, and would lose the tiebreaker. Then we would beat VT by virtue of the head-to-head. But if Pitt loses to VT, loses to Wake, then beats Miami, then Pitt/VT/GT all would be 4-2 in the Coastal.
Step 4: If Pitt loses to VT & Wake but not Miami, the identity of the 4th place finisher is determinative
That takes us to the third tiebreaker, "Head-to-head competition versus the team within the division with the best overall (divisional and non-divisional) Conference win-percentage, and proceeding through the division. Multiple ties within the division will be broken first to last, using the league’s tie-breaker policies."
I believe that means, 'head-to-head against the next highest Coastal finisher.' In this scenario, only Duke and UVA are potential 4-4 finishers. (1) If Duke is 4-4, then we're out, since we lost to them but VT & Pitt both won. VT then wins by virtue of the head-to-head. (2) If UVA is 4-4, then it depends whether VT beats UVA or not. If UVA beats VT, then VT is out – but then we lose to Pitt on head-to-head. If VT beats UVA, then all three of us will have beaten UVA, and we go to the next team down the standings. (What if Duke and UVA are both 4-4? I don't know – the rules don't seem to address that.) (3) If we were to get to Miami, it would depend whether VT beats Miami (and loses to UVA) or vice versa. If VT loses to Miami, then they lose the three-way tiebreak (since Pitt and GT both won) – which means we lose, too, since that resolves to Pitt. So the order in which the other teams finish is crucial here. [EDIT: After thinking about it, I'm not sure there's any way where we win this tiebreaker.]
Other scenarios of only academic interest
I think it is impossible that we'd get to the remaining tiebreakers, but I mention them anyhow. Fourth is "Combined win-percentage versus all common non-divisional opponents," but there are zero common non-divisional opponents. So the fourth tiebreaker doesn't establish anything.
Fifth is "Overall win-percentage versus non-divisional opponents." Again, assuming that Pitt loses to Wake and beats Miami, then Pitt/VT/GT are all .500 against Atlantic opponents. So the fifth tiebreaker doesn't establish anything.
Sixth is "Win-percentage versus common non-divisional opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference win-percentage) and proceeding through other common non-divisional opponents based upon their divisional order of finish." But again, there are no common non-divisional opponents.
Seventh is "The tied team with the highest ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of regular season games." The Team Rating Score is a proprietary calculation by SportSource Analytics, the folks behind cfbstats.com and who supply info to the CFP. The Team Rating Score calculation is not public knowledge but per ESPN it is
If somehow that metric failed (which is hard to imagine), tiebreaker number eight is a random draw.
Anyhow, if anyone made it through all that and sees any other relevant scenarios, please share.
Here's a super long post explaining why, and all the other relevant scenarios to our chances. I realize it is tediously long and some of this has been discussed elsewhere, but I thought it would be helpful to 'show my work' so we can all see where the conclusions are coming from. Here are the current Coastal standings at the end of the day today, and each team's remaining games.
Pitt – 4-1 (VT, Wake, Miami)
UVA – 4-2 (GT, VT)
VT – 3-2 (Pitt, Miami, UVA)
GT – 3-3 (Miami, UVA)
Miami – 2-3 (GT, VT, Pitt)
Duke – 2-3 (UNC, Clemson, Wake)
UNC – 1-5 (Duke, NCSU)
Step 1: Pitt must lose at least 2 of remaining 3 games
First, we only have a chance if the Coastal champ finishes 5-3. With that in mind, (1) UNC is already disqualified, (2) Duke gets 4 losses after losing to Clemson, and (3) Miami gets 4 losses after losing to us. As for (4) UVA, we will give them their 3d loss, so we would win a head-to-head tiebreak over them. If (5) VT loses just one more game (to Pitt, Miami or UVA), then they have 3 losses and we also win a head-to-head tiebreak over them.
That means (6) Pitt is by far our biggest problem. If Pitt loses one or none of its remaining games (VT, Wake, Miami), then they have fewer than three losses, and we're out. If they lose all three of their remaining games, then they finish with four losses and we win (unless VT wins out).
Step 2: We need VT to beat Pitt. Then VT must win one of its two other games, unless Pitt loses both its other two games
The really complicated scenario is Pitt losing two of their remaining three games. That puts them at 5-3 and means they have the head-to-head tiebreak advantage over us – but might there be multi-team tiebreak scenarios where we end up on top?
If Pitt beats VT, Pitt wins a Pitt/VT/GT tiebreak since Pitt beat both VT and GT. (We also lose if the three-way tie ends up being Pitt, UVA and GT. Since UVA lost to both of us, they're removed, which resolves to us and Pitt, which we then lose. We also lose in the very unlikely event that Duke wins out. Both Duke and Pitt beat us, so we're removed, and then Duke loses the head-to-head with Pitt. There are no other 5-3 three-way tie possibilities that include us.)
What if VT beats Pitt, though? In that event, a Pitt/VT/GT tiebreak couldn't be resolved on head-to-head grounds, since each team was 1-1 against the others.
Step 3: If Pitt loses to VT & Miami, we win regardless of the Pitt/Wake outcome
The second tiebreaker is record within the Coastal. We would be 4-2 in the Coastal, as would be VT. But for Pitt it will depend on how they split the Wake and Miami games. If Pitt loses to VT, beats Wake, then loses to Miami, they'll be 3-3 in the Coastal, and would lose the tiebreaker. Then we would beat VT by virtue of the head-to-head. But if Pitt loses to VT, loses to Wake, then beats Miami, then Pitt/VT/GT all would be 4-2 in the Coastal.
Step 4: If Pitt loses to VT & Wake but not Miami, the identity of the 4th place finisher is determinative
That takes us to the third tiebreaker, "Head-to-head competition versus the team within the division with the best overall (divisional and non-divisional) Conference win-percentage, and proceeding through the division. Multiple ties within the division will be broken first to last, using the league’s tie-breaker policies."
I believe that means, 'head-to-head against the next highest Coastal finisher.' In this scenario, only Duke and UVA are potential 4-4 finishers. (1) If Duke is 4-4, then we're out, since we lost to them but VT & Pitt both won. VT then wins by virtue of the head-to-head. (2) If UVA is 4-4, then it depends whether VT beats UVA or not. If UVA beats VT, then VT is out – but then we lose to Pitt on head-to-head. If VT beats UVA, then all three of us will have beaten UVA, and we go to the next team down the standings. (What if Duke and UVA are both 4-4? I don't know – the rules don't seem to address that.) (3) If we were to get to Miami, it would depend whether VT beats Miami (and loses to UVA) or vice versa. If VT loses to Miami, then they lose the three-way tiebreak (since Pitt and GT both won) – which means we lose, too, since that resolves to Pitt. So the order in which the other teams finish is crucial here. [EDIT: After thinking about it, I'm not sure there's any way where we win this tiebreaker.]
Other scenarios of only academic interest
I think it is impossible that we'd get to the remaining tiebreakers, but I mention them anyhow. Fourth is "Combined win-percentage versus all common non-divisional opponents," but there are zero common non-divisional opponents. So the fourth tiebreaker doesn't establish anything.
Fifth is "Overall win-percentage versus non-divisional opponents." Again, assuming that Pitt loses to Wake and beats Miami, then Pitt/VT/GT are all .500 against Atlantic opponents. So the fifth tiebreaker doesn't establish anything.
Sixth is "Win-percentage versus common non-divisional opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference win-percentage) and proceeding through other common non-divisional opponents based upon their divisional order of finish." But again, there are no common non-divisional opponents.
Seventh is "The tied team with the highest ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of regular season games." The Team Rating Score is a proprietary calculation by SportSource Analytics, the folks behind cfbstats.com and who supply info to the CFP. The Team Rating Score calculation is not public knowledge but per ESPN it is
Apparently Team Rating Score is made available to SportSource Analytics data subscribers for $10,000. But the bottom line is we don't know who would win on this metric. (BTW, SportSource Analytics has four principals, two Vandy grads, an Auburn grad, and a GT grad, former baseball player Scott Prather.)
If somehow that metric failed (which is hard to imagine), tiebreaker number eight is a random draw.
Anyhow, if anyone made it through all that and sees any other relevant scenarios, please share.
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