#5- Jalen Huff- CB High 3*

smokey_wasp said:
Star rankings are useful and generally a pretty good indicator of potential. The recruiting services also sometimes pull shenanigans with ratings based on who offers and where a kid winds up. I think both are true.
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I think we're all missing the real reason star ratings are adjusted based on the school a kid is committed to. These "services" have to maintain some sort of legitimacy by having a correlation between the star ratings and the success of the schools. If they raise the ratings of players going to schools with historical success they are creating a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy in which highly rated players result in more wins for a team.
 
LaFlavor said:
I think we're all missing the real reason star ratings are adjusted based on the school a kid is committed to. These "services" have to maintain some sort of legitimacy by having a correlation between the star ratings and the success of the schools. If they raise the ratings of players going to schools with historical success they are creating a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy in which highly rated players result in more wins for a team.
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Except that I’ve shown previously that every team except Alabama underachieves in relation to their average class ranking. And that Clemson is the biggest overachiever of the Top 10 or so schools over a 4 year period. And Bama really underachieves as well by not winning the natty every year.
 
coit said:
Except that I’ve shown previously that every team except Alabama underachieves in relation to their average class ranking. And that Clemson is the biggest overachiever of the Top 10 or so schools over a 4 year period. And Bama really underachieves as well by not winning the natty every year.
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What you did was something like compare 24/7 recruiting rankings with AP poll rankings, IIRC.
 
18in32 said:
I wouldn't use the words you use to describe the relationship you are talking about.
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Why better correlation could there be between a teams average recruiting class rank over four years and their poll ranking?

If you have the 5th best recruiting classes over 4 years shouldn’t they finish around 5th in the polls?
 
coit said:
Why better correlation could there be between a teams average recruiting class rank over four years and their poll ranking?

If you have the 5th best recruiting classes over 4 years shouldn’t they finish around 5th in the polls?
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No! Because recruiting services are barely measuring anything. There's no doubt there's a (weak) correlation between recruiting service rankings and final rankings, at least at some level of remove. But there's very little evidence which way the causation goes.
 
18in32 said:
No! Because recruiting services are barely measuring anything. There's no doubt there's a (weak) correlation between recruiting service rankings and final rankings, at least at some level of remove. But there's very little evidence which way the causation goes.
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They're evaluating plenty. It's just that they're evaluating what distribution of magic stars sells the most insider subscriptions. Any correlation that has to on-field success is related to size and investedness of fanbases.
 
18in32 said:
No! Because recruiting services are barely measuring anything. There's no doubt there's a (weak) correlation between recruiting service rankings and final rankings, at least at some level of remove. But there's very little evidence which way the causation goes.
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Thank you for proving my point. I did a study for a couple of years of the preseason rankings of teams as compared to the final polls. The SEC and B1G were typically overrated in the preseason, and the other conferences were typically underrated.
 
coit said:
Thank you for proving my point. I did a study for a couple of years of the preseason rankings of teams as compared to the final polls. The SEC and B1G were typically overrated in the preseason, and the other conferences were typically underrated.
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Another ST success story. I guess.
 
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