The new touchback rule

18in32

18in32

Petard Hoister
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Now that you can get a free 25 yds whether or not the kickoff makes it into the endzone (a change I didn't agree with), I get the feeling that way too many players are not taking advantage of it. A surprising number of kickoff returns are fielded inside the 5 and run back, rather than taking the free 25 yards. And those runbacks usually fall short of the 25.

Has anyone has done any calculation of the percentage of times a kickoff return fails to get to the 25? It's gotta be a solid majority. I wonder if any of those fancy stat sites track this info... I haven't seen it.
 
18in32 said:
Now that you can get a free 25 yds whether or not the kickoff makes it into the endzone (a change I didn't agree with), I get the feeling that way too many players are not taking advantage of it. A surprising number of kickoff returns are fielded inside the 5 and run back, rather than taking the free 25 yards. And those runbacks usually fall short of the 25.

Has anyone has done any calculation of the percentage of times a kickoff return fails to get to the 25? It's gotta be a solid majority. I wonder if any of those fancy stat sites track this info... I haven't seen it.
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I sure wish that USF had taken the free 25 yards a few times last season.
 
18in32 said:
Now that you can get a free 25 yds whether or not the kickoff makes it into the endzone (a change I didn't agree with), I get the feeling that way too many players are not taking advantage of it. A surprising number of kickoff returns are fielded inside the 5 and run back, rather than taking the free 25 yards. And those runbacks usually fall short of the 25.

Has anyone has done any calculation of the percentage of times a kickoff return fails to get to the 25? It's gotta be a solid majority. I wonder if any of those fancy stat sites track this info... I haven't seen it.
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I agree that enough players aren't taking advantage of it but one point of technicality about the new rule.
Just like you can't call fair catch on a ball that has bounced or previously hit the ground (hence why so many teams try to top the ball off the ground and make it bounce high on on-side-kicks), you can't call fair catch to get the ball on the 25 on balls that have touched the ground.
 
If we could get our opponents to start at their 25 every time I’d be ecstatic. God our kickers suck.
 
According to the article below, the average starting field position on kickoffs has been at the 27 yard line. I suppose that answers the question.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/fei-ratings/2019/fei-week-6-ratings

Over the course of the 2019 season to date, 58.5% of all kickoffs have resulted in the receiving team starting their next possession on their own 25-yard line. Last season, that percentage was only 54.8%. In 2017, prior to the fair catch rule's introduction, only 45.0% of all kickoffs resulted in starting field position at the team's own 25-yard line. Prior to the 2012 season, kickoffs were from the kicking team's own 30-yard line (not the 35-yard line as they are today) and touchbacks were placed at the receiving team's own 20-yard line (not the 25-yard line as they are today). Way back in 2007, only 14.3% of kickoffs resulted in starting field position for the receiving team at the touchback location, and only 3.7% of kickoffs resulted in starting field position at the receiving team's own 25-yard line.

Average starting field position in college football is, of course, only partially tied to kickoff rules. So far in the 2019 season, 43.2% of all offensive possessions began following an opponent kickoff. Another 38.2% of offensive possessions began following an opponent punt. The remaining 18.6% of offensive possessions follow an opponent fumble, interception, turnover on downs, or failed field goal attempt. Of these three types of possession change events, the first two are nearly indistinguishable in terms of average starting field position. Offenses have started at their own 27-yard line on average following kickoffs, and at their own 27-yard line following punts. Following other possession change events, offenses have started at their own 44-yard line. Those numbers are consistent with 2018 season results, and with 2017 season results as well, prior to the most recent kickoff rule change.
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gt2690b said:
What’s our average? 15?
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GTCrew said:
Maybe, but not necessarily, since a kick out of bounds goes to the 35 and also they didnt say they excluded onsides kicks from the averages. Im assuming penalty yardage averages to reduce the field position but thats a factor too.
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Yeah, those are good points. OB kicks are probably around 5% of the total, and onside kicks are about 2% of the total according to a google search. Assuming 35 yard line for an OB kick and the opponents 45 yard line for a failed onside kick, a quick calc says the starting field position for normal kicks is the 26 yard line. So still better than taking the fair catch.
 
coit said:
According to the article below, the average starting field position on kickoffs has been at the 27 yard line. I suppose that answers the question.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/fei-ratings/2019/fei-week-6-ratings
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If I'm reading this correctly, they just looked at starting field positions, which wouldn't help answer my question. There are so many different ways that starting field position is determined, but I'm more interested in the new touchback rule itself.

This article from SBNation tries to answer it, too, but also doesn't get granular enough. He points out that there are way more touchbacks than their used to be, but you really need to look at the specific question of where non-endzone non-touchbacks end up, to know just how many yards are being left on the table in the gamble for a long runback.

I just want to know, what percentage of the time do non-endzone non-touchback get past the 25?
 
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18in32 said:
Now that you can get a free 25 yds whether or not the kickoff makes it into the endzone (a change I didn't agree with), I get the feeling that way too many players are not taking advantage of it. A surprising number of kickoff returns are fielded inside the 5 and run back, rather than taking the free 25 yards. And those runbacks usually fall short of the 25.

Has anyone has done any calculation of the percentage of times a kickoff return fails to get to the 25? It's gotta be a solid majority. I wonder if any of those fancy stat sites track this info... I haven't seen it.
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Agree with the sentiment, but returners tend to have an inflated sense of their own return abilities. They always think they can make something out of nothing.
 
gtfan088 said:
Agree with the sentiment, but returners tend to have an inflated sense of their own return abilities. They always think they can make something out of nothing.
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Certainly – but how much lost yardage do teams suffer through before they insist their returners cool their jets?
 
18in32 said:
Certainly – but how much lost yardage do teams suffer through before they insist their returners cool their jets?
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The upside of breaking a good return outweighs the certainty of starting a possession at the 25. The expected points per drive is about the same whether you start at the 20-yard line or the 25-yard line. The expected points per drive when you start around midfield are much higher. So coaches are fine if a guy makes four returns, with three getting to the 20-yard line and one getting to midfield, rather than having four drives start at the 25-yard line. The expected points per drive in the first scenario is higher than the second.

This assumes the returner has the ability to break one. If you have a ööööty return game and can't even get anywhere near the 25-yard line on returns, then yeah you should probably fair catch the kickoff.

I don't recall where I read this, but it's somewhere out on the internet. I tried a quick google and can't find it.
 
18in32 said:
Certainly – but how much lost yardage do teams suffer through before they insist their returners cool their jets?
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I think that's a difficult question to answer. There was an NFL game the other day (maybe Cowboys-Vikings?) where a returner fair caught a punt late in the game with his team trailing. There was so much open field, he probably gets at least 15-20 yards if he returns it, and immediately sets the team up in better hail mary position. It was clear he was told before the play to fair catch it to preserve time, but the coaches probably weren't accounting for just how much space he would have to run. Obviously that was a punt and not a kickoff, but point being: it's very difficult to account for every possible situation (at least without completely bewildering the player).

Depending on the abilities of your ST unit, perhaps it would make sense for some coaches to categorically tell their players to fair catch kickoffs that reach a certain point (such as inside the 5). It seems very touch-and-go though, and even if you arrive at the number you're looking for in your later post (% of time returned kickoffs fail to reach the 25), I'm not sure how much it settles what each individual team should do.
 
gtfan088 said:
even if you arrive at the number you're looking for in your later post (% of time returned kickoffs fail to reach the 25), I'm not sure how much it settles what each individual team should do.
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Certainly, stats never tell you everything. But it would be a good place to start.
 
Ed Sawyer said:
The upside of breaking a good return outweighs the certainty of starting a possession at the 25. The expected points per drive is about the same whether you start at the 20-yard line or the 25-yard line. The expected points per drive when you start around midfield are much higher. So coaches are fine if a guy makes four returns, with three getting to the 20-yard line and one getting to midfield, rather than having four drives start at the 25-yard line. The expected points per drive in the first scenario is higher than the second.

This assumes the returner has the ability to break one. If you have a ööööty return game and can't even get anywhere near the 25-yard line on returns, then yeah you should probably fair catch the kickoff.

I don't recall where I read this, but it's somewhere out on the internet. I tried a quick google and can't find it.
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I believe you that there's a significant points-per-drive differential between starting at the 20 or 25 rather than the 50, and that's why returners "err" on the side of returning. But I think there's probably also a points-per-drive differential between starting at the 9 than the 25, too – which is why they should "err" on the side of fair catching. It all depends on just how likely it is that you'll "break one".

And there's a lot more to the question than points-per-drive anyhow. What percentage of possessions are three-and-outs? And there's a big difference between punting from your own 10 and punting from your own 30, not just in the starting field possession for the other team, but in the psychology of it, the options for fake punting, the chance of a block. You're already in the other guy's red zone, for Pete's sake.

I'm guessing returners don't take such considerations fully into account!
 
18in32 said:
Certainly, stats never tell you everything. But it would be a good place to start.
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Ultimately, I think it comes down to @Ed Sawyer 's point that teams will accept the risk of starting most possessions a few yards behind the 25 since it keeps open the possibility of a big runback. Some teams should probably do a better job taking stock of their returner's game-breaking abilities to decide how realistic that possibility is, as well as how likely a kickoff penalty is to completely derail the drive.

From an analytics standpoint, coaches should go for 2 a hell of a lot more often than they do, as well, but that's an entirely new thread.

I'll add that the central question ITT is part of why football is such a fun game to discuss.
 
gtfan088 said:
I'll add that the central question ITT is part of why football is such a fun game to discuss.
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College football is the most complicated game in the world. I like soccer and tennis and basketball and golf and so forth... but for intellectual depth they're miles and miles behind college football.
 
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