2017 Pre-Season Probability Poll Comment Thread

[coit]

Getting close to that time, folks! As we approach the start of this years polling, I thought I'd check in to see if anyone would like to see anything new or different this time around.

In the past we have had discussion regarding the range of options (0.1 to 0.9 versus 0.0 to 1.0, etc). I'm not sure that I'd change that, since no games are really 100% or 0%. But maybe there are some ideas for tweaking that would be fun?

Here's a link to last year's poll results and discussion.

https://www.stingtalk.com/board/threads/2016-preseason-probability-poll-results.89141/

The aggregate from last year's polls were a prediction of 7.33 regular season wins. So we were only slightly pessimistic, even given the 2015 season's results. I expect a bit of optimism to reign this year.

 

[andrew]

Make it 0.0 to 1.0, then always throw out the 0.0s and the 1.0s because so many people will just choose highest for anything. Maybe keep them for the cupcake game.

 

[LeonardWood]

Just count the cupcakes as 1.0, don't poll. Start with the Pitt game and add 3 at the end.

 

[coit]

Bump. Last chance for discussion.

 

[LegendaryGT]

I see so many complaints coming in the actual threads.

 

[coit]

I've loaded in the ESPN FPI preseason rankings so I'll be tracking that as the season progresses. Should be interesting.

 

[gth874t]

Just count the cupcakes as 1.0, don't poll. Start with the Pitt game and add 3 at the end.

Would we really consider UCF a cupcake? And who is the 3rd cupcake, UVA?

 

[andrew]

Would we really consider UCF a cupcake? And who is the 3rd cupcake, UVA?

UCF? I wouldn't. They've had some pretty damn good players over the years. Any school that can pull a Demaryius Thomas isn't a cupcake.

 

[LegendaryGT]

Charlie Strong without a Teddy Bridgewater couldn't make Texas into a non-cupcake. Not scared of the dude at UCF in any sense except physically. trolo

 

[ee8384]

How about waiting until pre-season practice is over before asking for probabilities? An injury here or there could drastically change one's view.

 

[coit]

How about waiting until pre-season practice is over before asking for probabilities? An injury here or there could drastically change one's view.

There isn't enough time to work through all of these before the first game. We've been starting these polls around the 3rd week of July for the past 3 or 4 years.

 

[Ed Sawyer]

Not scared of the dude at UCF in any sense except physically. trolo

Why are you scared of Scott Frost? Lawrence Phillips certainly wasn't.

 

[coit]

Folks, something to keep in mind as you vote this year.... First, vote in every poll, then you will be in the running for cumulative probability contest. Second, for those of you that like to vote as a joke (@Diseqc, for instance), I am thinking of awarding a fabulous price, like an Amazon gift card or something, to whoever has a cumulative probability equal to our number of wins this season.

I have set the poll to allow changing of votes until it closes, so feel free to adjust your vote.

 

[DressCheeseSideSeaboard]

I think you're doing a great job with it.