#### coit

##### Smarter than Diseqc

- Joined
- Nov 29, 2007

- Messages
- 71,476

Ok folks, I've kicked off the polls for the year. We are officially 1 month away from the start of the season!

Remember that I will be tracking everyone's performance through the season and handing out kudos at the end for top performers.

Any questions?

For a Win, your score equals your win probability.

For a Loss, your score equals 1 minus your win probability.

Score starts with the TIA scoring described above. Each game is given a result value according to the following index:

This rewards vote probabilities that are closer to final outcome by giving them a higher weight than results that are further from the actual final outcome.

----

The final result of these weights produces a score that reasonably reflects how close to the actual result a voter's predictions are on a game by game and seasonal basis.

Your mom.

Remember that I will be tracking everyone's performance through the season and handing out kudos at the end for top performers.

Any questions?

**EDIT**: Based on a recommendation from TIA, we will track individual performance using a sum of each voter's probability for each win and 1 - probability for each loss. So, you get more points for a higher probability for the games we win, and more points for voting a lower probability for the games we lose.**EDIT2**: We seem to have settled into a final scoring system in the comments below. Here's a summary:__The @ThisIsAtlanta / @GoGATech Scoring System__**TIA Score Weighting:**For a Win, your score equals your win probability.

For a Loss, your score equals 1 minus your win probability.

- If we win a game you predicted as 0.9 you get 0.9
- If we lose a game you predicted as 0.9 you get 0.1
- If we lose a game you predicted as 0.1 you get 0.9
- If we win a game you predicted as 0.1 you get 0.1

**GoGATech / 18in32 Scoring Modification:**Score starts with the TIA scoring described above. Each game is given a result value according to the following index:

- 0.4 = three possession (>16 pt) win
- 0.3 = two TD (>11 pt) win
- 0.2 = two possession (>8 pt) win
- 0.1 = TD (>3 pt) win
- 0.0 = win or loss by < 3 pts
- -0.1 = TD (>3 pt) loss
- -0.2 = two possession (>8 pt) loss
- -0.3 = two TD (>11 pt) loss
- -0.4 = three possession (>16 pt) loss

GGTScore = TIAScore * (1 - abs(VoteProb - 0.5 - GameResultValue)

This rewards vote probabilities that are closer to final outcome by giving them a higher weight than results that are further from the actual final outcome.

----

The final result of these weights produces a score that reasonably reflects how close to the actual result a voter's predictions are on a game by game and seasonal basis.

Your mom.

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