2019 Pre-Season Probability Poll Discussion Thread

coit

Smarter than Diseqc
Joined
Nov 29, 2007
Messages
62,876
Ok folks, I'm deep in preparations for the polls this year. The season is just about 6 weeks away! I'm going to start the polls a bit earlier and leave each one open a bit longer for the folks that don't visit the site as frequently. Remember that I will be tracking everyone's performance through the season and handing out kudos at the end for top performers, so be sure to vote in every poll if you want to participate in that.

Links to each week's poll as follows:

Game 1: Clemson
Game 2: South Florida
Game 3: The Citadel
Game 4: Temple
Game 5: North Carolina
Game 6: Duke
Game 7: Miami
Game 8: Pittsburgh
Game 9: Virginia
Game 10: Virginia Tech
Game 11: NC State
Game 12: Georgie
---------------
Over the past couple of seasons we've developed some scoring systems that attempt to incentivize picks that are close to the actual result. We have taken to calling these the TIAScore and the GGTScore weighting factors. These systems are described below.

The @ThisIsAtlanta / @GoGATech Scoring Systems

TIA Score Weighting:

For a Win, your score equals your win probability.
For a Loss, your score equals 1 minus your win probability.
  • If we win a game you predicted as 0.9 you get 0.9
  • If we lose a game you predicted as 0.9 you get 0.1
  • If we lose a game you predicted as 0.1 you get 0.9
  • If we win a game you predicted as 0.1 you get 0.1
This rewards those who realistically vote low probabilities for the games we end up losing and those who vote high probabilities for the games we end up winning.


GoGATech / 18in32 Scoring Modification:

Score starts with the TIA scoring described above. Each game is given a result value according to the following index, which is based on the point spread of the final score:
  • 0.4 = three possession (>16 pt) win
  • 0.3 = two TD (>11 pt) win
  • 0.2 = two possession (>8 pt) win
  • 0.1 = TD (>3 pt) win
  • 0.0 = win or loss by < 3 pts
  • -0.1 = TD (>3 pt) loss
  • -0.2 = two possession (>8 pt) loss
  • -0.3 = two TD (>11 pt) loss
  • -0.4 = three possession (>16 pt) loss
The modified score is calculated by multiplying the TIA score by 1 minus the absolute value of each vote probability minus 0.5 minus the game result value above.

GGTScore = TIAScore * (1 - abs(VoteProb - 0.5 - GameResultValue)

This rewards vote probabilities that are closer to final outcome by giving them a higher weight than results that are further from the actual final outcome.

----

The final result of these two weighting systems produces a score that reasonably reflects how close to the actual result a voter's predictions are on a game by game and seasonal basis.
 
Last edited:

JJacket

1st to pass for 2500 and rush for 1000
Ban Hammer'd
Joined
May 20, 2003
Messages
49,690
15-0 Baybeeeeeeeee. I pick GT to win all games easily. Stick that up your damn pole
 

Techbert

Dodd-Like
Joined
Aug 13, 2002
Messages
16,714
Ok folks, I'm deep in preparations for the polls this year. The season is just about 6 weeks away! I'm going to start the polls a bit earlier and leave each one open a bit longer for the folks that don't visit the site as frequently. Remember that I will be tracking everyone's performance through the season and handing out kudos at the end for top performers, so be sure to vote in every poll if you want to participate in that.

Over the past couple of seasons we've developed some scoring systems that attempt to incentivize picks that are close to the actual result. We have taken to calling these the TIAScore and the GGTScore weighting factors. These systems are described below.

The @ThisIsAtlanta / @GoGATech Scoring Systems

TIA Score Weighting:

For a Win, your score equals your win probability.
For a Loss, your score equals 1 minus your win probability.
  • If we win a game you predicted as 0.9 you get 0.9
  • If we lose a game you predicted as 0.9 you get 0.1
  • If we lose a game you predicted as 0.1 you get 0.9
  • If we win a game you predicted as 0.1 you get 0.1
This rewards those who realistically vote low probabilities for the games we end up losing and those who vote high probabilities for the games we end up winning.


GoGATech / 18in32 Scoring Modification:

Score starts with the TIA scoring described above. Each game is given a result value according to the following index, which is based on the point spread of the final score:
  • 0.4 = three possession (>16 pt) win
  • 0.3 = two TD (>11 pt) win
  • 0.2 = two possession (>8 pt) win
  • 0.1 = TD (>3 pt) win
  • 0.0 = win or loss by < 3 pts
  • -0.1 = TD (>3 pt) loss
  • -0.2 = two possession (>8 pt) loss
  • -0.3 = two TD (>11 pt) loss
  • -0.4 = three possession (>16 pt) loss
The modified score is calculated by multiplying the TIA score by 1 minus the absolute value of each vote probability minus 0.5 minus the game result value above.

GGTScore = TIAScore * (1 - abs(VoteProb - 0.5 - GameResultValue)

This rewards vote probabilities that are closer to final outcome by giving them a higher weight than results that are further from the actual final outcome.

----

The final result of these two weighting systems produces a score that reasonably reflects how close to the actual result a voter's predictions are on a game by game and seasonal basis.
A scoring system that only a Techie could endure.

I love it!
 

coit

Smarter than Diseqc
Joined
Nov 29, 2007
Messages
62,876
Ok, the first poll is up!

My plan is to push a new one out every 3 days, and leaving voting open on each one for 6 days.
 

BuzzLaw

I hope it rains at my funeral
Joined
Nov 24, 2008
Messages
8,415
All this crap about only winning a few games is bs. We won 8 last year. Shouldn’t take a step back. It’s not like we fired a crappy coach for going 2-10 for four years in a row. We got the players and the juice to make it happen now.
 

txsting

Elite level sh*tposting
Ban Hammer'd
Joined
Dec 5, 2007
Messages
1,189
All this crap about only winning a few games is bs. We won 8 last year. Shouldn’t take a step back. It’s not like we fired a crappy coach for going 2-10 for four years in a row. We got the players and the juice to make it happen now.
Yeah we were one bad half against Pitt away from playing in the ACC title game.
 

gtrower

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Joined
Aug 22, 2010
Messages
8,179
Yeah we were one bad half against Pitt away from playing in the ACC title game.
That game was so damn frustrating. Watched the whole thing again the other day. Their 3 TD drives were:

- 5 plays 63 yards (15 on a personal foul)
- 3 plays 26 yards (15 on a personal foul) after a failed fake punt
- 4 plays 77 yards (60 on a flea flicker)

Gave up a trick play TD, had 4 turnovers including failed 4th downs, and still almost won on the road. Replay that game on another day and it’s probably 31-13 Tech.
 

coit

Smarter than Diseqc
Joined
Nov 29, 2007
Messages
62,876
Folks, if you missed voting in some of the polls and would like to participate in this season's prediction contest, go to that poll's thread (links in the OP), and post your prediction.

Quite a few folks are just missing 1 or 2 picks and I'll be happy to add them.

All picks must be posted by the end of the day Wednesday.
 

ee8384

Cynic At-Large
Joined
Jan 8, 2005
Messages
8,710
Folks, if you missed voting in some of the polls and would like to participate in this season's prediction contest, go to that poll's thread (links in the OP), and post your prediction.

Quite a few folks are just missing 1 or 2 picks and I'll be happy to add them.

All picks must be posted by the end of the day Wednesday.
It doesn't show the asterisk on polls you voted on, so how can you figure out whether you missed one?
 

coit

Smarter than Diseqc
Joined
Nov 29, 2007
Messages
62,876
It doesn't show the asterisk on polls you voted on, so how can you figure out whether you missed one?
Shows the asterisks for me. You've voted in all of them.
 

ee8384

Cynic At-Large
Joined
Jan 8, 2005
Messages
8,710
Shows the asterisks for me. You've voted in all of them.
Thanks. I see asterisks for some, not for others. And none of the polls show as open so I couldn't vote even if I missed one.
 
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