#### coit

##### Smarter than Diseqc

- Joined
- Nov 29, 2007

- Messages
- 62,876

Ok folks, I'm deep in preparations for the polls this year. The season is just about 6 weeks away! I'm going to start the polls a bit earlier and leave each one open a bit longer for the folks that don't visit the site as frequently. Remember that I will be tracking everyone's performance through the season and handing out kudos at the end for top performers, so be sure to vote in every poll if you want to participate in that.

Links to each week's poll as follows:

Game 1: Clemson

Game 2: South Florida

Game 3: The Citadel

Game 4: Temple

Game 5: North Carolina

Game 6: Duke

Game 7: Miami

Game 8: Pittsburgh

Game 9: Virginia

Game 10: Virginia Tech

Game 11: NC State

Game 12: Georgie

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Over the past couple of seasons we've developed some scoring systems that attempt to incentivize picks that are close to the actual result. We have taken to calling these the TIAScore and the GGTScore weighting factors. These systems are described below.

For a Win, your score equals your win probability.

For a Loss, your score equals 1 minus your win probability.

Score starts with the TIA scoring described above. Each game is given a result value according to the following index, which is based on the point spread of the final score:

GGTScore = TIAScore * (1 - abs(VoteProb - 0.5 - GameResultValue)

This rewards vote probabilities that are closer to final outcome by giving them a higher weight than results that are further from the actual final outcome.

----

The final result of these two weighting systems produces a score that reasonably reflects how close to the actual result a voter's predictions are on a game by game and seasonal basis.

Links to each week's poll as follows:

Game 1: Clemson

Game 2: South Florida

Game 3: The Citadel

Game 4: Temple

Game 5: North Carolina

Game 6: Duke

Game 7: Miami

Game 8: Pittsburgh

Game 9: Virginia

Game 10: Virginia Tech

Game 11: NC State

Game 12: Georgie

---------------

Over the past couple of seasons we've developed some scoring systems that attempt to incentivize picks that are close to the actual result. We have taken to calling these the TIAScore and the GGTScore weighting factors. These systems are described below.

**The @ThisIsAtlanta / @GoGATech Scoring Systems****TIA Score Weighting:**For a Win, your score equals your win probability.

For a Loss, your score equals 1 minus your win probability.

- If we win a game you predicted as 0.9 you get 0.9
- If we lose a game you predicted as 0.9 you get 0.1
- If we lose a game you predicted as 0.1 you get 0.9
- If we win a game you predicted as 0.1 you get 0.1

**GoGATech / 18in32 Scoring Modification:**Score starts with the TIA scoring described above. Each game is given a result value according to the following index, which is based on the point spread of the final score:

- 0.4 = three possession (>16 pt) win
- 0.3 = two TD (>11 pt) win
- 0.2 = two possession (>8 pt) win
- 0.1 = TD (>3 pt) win
- 0.0 = win or loss by < 3 pts
- -0.1 = TD (>3 pt) loss
- -0.2 = two possession (>8 pt) loss
- -0.3 = two TD (>11 pt) loss
- -0.4 = three possession (>16 pt) loss

GGTScore = TIAScore * (1 - abs(VoteProb - 0.5 - GameResultValue)

This rewards vote probabilities that are closer to final outcome by giving them a higher weight than results that are further from the actual final outcome.

----

The final result of these two weighting systems produces a score that reasonably reflects how close to the actual result a voter's predictions are on a game by game and seasonal basis.

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