2019 Pre-Season Probability Poll Discussion Thread

Discussion in 'Football' started by coit, Jul 17, 2019.

  1. coit

    coit Repost Five-0

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    Ok folks, I'm deep in preparations for the polls this year. The season is just about 6 weeks away! I'm going to start the polls a bit earlier and leave each one open a bit longer for the folks that don't visit the site as frequently. Remember that I will be tracking everyone's performance through the season and handing out kudos at the end for top performers, so be sure to vote in every poll if you want to participate in that.
    ---------------
    EDIT: Polls are underway. Links to each week's poll as follows:

    Game 1: Clemson
    Game 2: South Florida
    Game 3: The Citadel
    Game 4: Temple
    Game 5: North Carolina
    Game 6: Duke
    Game 7: Miami
    Game 8: Pittsburgh
    Game 9: Virginia
    Game 10: Virginia Tech - voting closes 08/23 - 10:30 AM EDT
    Game 11: NC State - voting closes 08/25 - 11 AM EDT
    Game 12: Georgie - voting closes 08/27 - 9 AM EDT
    ---------------
    Over the past couple of seasons we've developed some scoring systems that attempt to incentivize picks that are close to the actual result. We have taken to calling these the TIAScore and the GGTScore weighting factors. These systems are described below.

    The @ThisIsAtlanta / @GoGATech Scoring Systems

    TIA Score Weighting:

    For a Win, your score equals your win probability.
    For a Loss, your score equals 1 minus your win probability.
    • If we win a game you predicted as 0.9 you get 0.9
    • If we lose a game you predicted as 0.9 you get 0.1
    • If we lose a game you predicted as 0.1 you get 0.9
    • If we win a game you predicted as 0.1 you get 0.1
    This rewards those who realistically vote low probabilities for the games we end up losing and those who vote high probabilities for the games we end up winning.


    GoGATech / 18in32 Scoring Modification:

    Score starts with the TIA scoring described above. Each game is given a result value according to the following index, which is based on the point spread of the final score:
    • 0.4 = three possession (>16 pt) win
    • 0.3 = two TD (>11 pt) win
    • 0.2 = two possession (>8 pt) win
    • 0.1 = TD (>3 pt) win
    • 0.0 = win or loss by < 3 pts
    • -0.1 = TD (>3 pt) loss
    • -0.2 = two possession (>8 pt) loss
    • -0.3 = two TD (>11 pt) loss
    • -0.4 = three possession (>16 pt) loss
    The modified score is calculated by multiplying the TIA score by 1 minus the absolute value of each vote probability minus 0.5 minus the game result value above.

    GGTScore = TIAScore * (1 - abs(VoteProb - 0.5 - GameResultValue)

    This rewards vote probabilities that are closer to final outcome by giving them a higher weight than results that are further from the actual final outcome.

    ----

    The final result of these two weighting systems produces a score that reasonably reflects how close to the actual result a voter's predictions are on a game by game and seasonal basis.
     
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2019 at 9:06 AM
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  2. ee8384

    ee8384 Cynic At-Large

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  3. RamblinWreck92

    RamblinWreck92 Dodd-Like

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    Defending Champion checking in to remind everyone that I'm the ööööing Defending Champion.
     
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  4. JJacket

    JJacket 1st to pass for 2500 and rush for 1000

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    15-0 Baybeeeeeeeee. I pick GT to win all games easily. Stick that up your damn pole
     
  5. Techbert

    Techbert Dodd-Like

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    A scoring system that only a Techie could endure.

    I love it!
     
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  6. coit

    coit Repost Five-0

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    Ok, the first poll is up!

    My plan is to push a new one out every 3 days, and leaving voting open on each one for 6 days.
     
  7. BuzzLaw

    BuzzLaw where have all the average people gone

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    All this crap about only winning a few games is bs. We won 8 last year. Shouldn’t take a step back. It’s not like we fired a crappy coach for going 2-10 for four years in a row. We got the players and the juice to make it happen now.
     
  8. OmnipoTech

    OmnipoTech Flats Noob

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    Nah fam
     
  9. BuzzLaw

    BuzzLaw where have all the average people gone

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    We beat Kansas state for our 8th win
     
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  10. madRazor

    madRazor Flats Noob

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    said Akinji07 on his low carb diet
     
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  11. ee8384

    ee8384 Cynic At-Large

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    Would mods please sticky this so we don't have to keep searching for it when making our picks? Kthxbi.

    @ThisIsAtlanta
     
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  12. ThisIsAtlanta

    ThisIsAtlanta Actually Nicolas Cage Staff Member

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    @coit will you edit the OP with links to the polls so far?
     
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  13. coit

    coit Repost Five-0

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    All set.
     
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  14. txsting

    txsting The beemoji

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    Yeah we were one bad half against Pitt away from playing in the ACC title game.
     
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  15. gtrower

    gtrower Dodd-Like

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    That game was so damn frustrating. Watched the whole thing again the other day. Their 3 TD drives were:

    - 5 plays 63 yards (15 on a personal foul)
    - 3 plays 26 yards (15 on a personal foul) after a failed fake punt
    - 4 plays 77 yards (60 on a flea flicker)

    Gave up a trick play TD, had 4 turnovers including failed 4th downs, and still almost won on the road. Replay that game on another day and it’s probably 31-13 Tech.
     
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  16. coit

    coit Repost Five-0

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    The last pole is live, and the season is just 1 week away!