2019 Preseason Probability Poll Results

Discussion in 'Football' started by coit, Aug 27, 2019.

  1. coit

    coit Posting at a high level

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    Here's the result of the 2019 Probability Polls.

    Clem: 0.230 L
    USF: 0.644 W
    Citadel: 0.854 L
    Temple: 0.696 L
    UNC: 0.642 L
    Duke: 0.652 L
    Miami: 0.470 W
    Pitt: 0.635 L
    UVA: 0.528 L
    VT: 0.627 L
    NCS: 0.567 W
    UGA: 0.371 L

    Total: 6.917 wins (-0.6 wins from 2018 predictions)

    Adjusted total thru Game 1: 6.687 wins (-0.230)
    Adjusted total thru Game 2: 7.044 wins (+0.357)
    Adjusted total thru Game 3: 6.189 wins (-0.855)
    Adjusted total thru Game 4: 5.493 wins (-0.696)
    Adjusted total thru Game 5: 4.851 wins (-0.642)
    Adjusted total thru Game 6: 4.198 wins (-0.653)
    Adjusted total thru Game 7: 4.728 wins (+0.530)
    Adjusted total thru Game 8: 4.093 wins (-0.635)
    Adjusted total thru Game 9: 3.565 wins (-0.528)
    Adjusted total thru Game 10: 2.938 wins (-0.627)
    Adjusted total thru Game 11: 3.371 wins (+0.433)
    Adjusted total thru Game 12: 3.000 wins (-0.371)

    Changes in probability from 2018 repeat opponents:

    Clem: -0.086 L
    USF: -0.029 W
    UNC: -0.070 L
    Duke: -0.013 L
    Miami: -0.049 W
    Pitt: -0.015 L
    UVA: -0.208 L
    VT: 0.077 L
    UGA: -0.052 L

    Average : -0.047
    Cumulative: -0.329

    So, we are roughly 5% less optimistic this year over last year

    Ranking of toughest opponents by probability:

    1 Clem: 0.230 L
    2 UGA: 0.371 L
    3 Miami: 0.470 W
    4 UVA: 0.528 L
    5 NCS: 0.567 W
    6 VT: 0.627 L
    7 Pitt: 0.635 L
    8 UNC: 0.642 L
    9 USF: 0.644 W
    10 Duke: 0.652 L
    11 Temple: 0.696 L
    12 Citadel: 0.854 L

    Here's the complete voting spreadsheet. I'll be tracking each voters record through the season as described in THIS thread if you voted for all 12 games.

    LINK TO SPREADSHEET


     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2019
  2. coit

    coit Posting at a high level

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    There’s something wrong with the spreadsheet embedding. Seems like something has changed for embedding the Google sheets.

    Can anyone scroll this spreadsheet on a phone or tablet? It works on a desktop browser, but not the way it worked in the past.
     
  3. Jacketblind

    Jacketblind Here

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    Works fine on my phone.
     
  4. coit

    coit Posting at a high level

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    You can scroll the sheet up and down and see all 390 lines?
     
  5. Jacketblind

    Jacketblind Here

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    Screenshot_20190827-192557_Chrome.jpg

    Up, down, left, right
     
  6. coit

    coit Posting at a high level

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    Yeah it is working for me now as well. That being said, the sheets aren’t working like they did in the past. You used to be able to see the sort buttons and such, and I as the owner could edit the data right on Stingtalk. Remember when someone had an editable spreadsheet somewhere on here a few months ago? :-). Doesn’t work anymore.
     
  7. Chattanooga Jacket

    Chattanooga Jacket Varsity Lurker

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    If you touch one of the gray bars on side or bottom first then slide finger across screen it works.
     
  8. coit

    coit Posting at a high level

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    I've replaced the embed with a link to the spreadsheet for now. Hopefully @BeeStorm can track down what changed in the past few months that messed up the way the spreadsheets behave. There was a thread that had an editable spreadsheet back in May or June, I think the thread is deleted now because we were all entering @BeeStorm's mom's phone number.

    If you click the link, you'll get a much better version of the spreadsheet. If you are on phone or tablet and have the Google Sheets app, it will open up in that.
     
  9. THWG247

    THWG247 Varsity Lurker

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    Clem: 0.2
    USF: 0.6
    Citadel: 1.0
    Temple: 0.8
    UNC: 0.6
    Duke: 0.6
    Miami: 0.5
    Pitt: 0.5
    UVA: 0.5
    VT: 0.5
    NCS: 0.4
    UGA: 0.2
     
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  10. coit

    coit Posting at a high level

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    OP updated for Game 1 results:

    Our Game 1 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.230. The total expected win value is now 6.687.
     
  11. coit

    coit Posting at a high level

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    OP updated for Game 2 results:

    Our Game 2 win has increased the expected win total by 0.357. The total expected win value is now 7.044.
     
  12. coit

    coit Posting at a high level

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    OP updated for Game 3 results:

    Our Game 3 embarrassment has decreased the expected win total by 0.855. The total expected win value is now 6.189.

    6 wins seems really optimistic at this point.
     
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  13. Jacketblind

    Jacketblind Here

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    Boy was I overly optimistic
     
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  14. RamblinWreck92

    RamblinWreck92 Dodd-Like

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    Do we get any mulligans?
     
  15. coit

    coit Posting at a high level

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    OP updated for Game 4 results:

    Our Game 4 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.696. The total expected win value is now 5.493.

    If anyone thinks we will win 4 more games, feel free to chime in.
     
  16. JoeCakeEater

    JoeCakeEater Dodd-Like

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  17. 18in32

    18in32 Petard Hoister

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    The beautiful thing about reality is that past performance is no guarantee of future results. Of course there's still time for the staff to get their act together.
     
  18. coit

    coit Posting at a high level

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    So, I can put you down for 4 or more wins the rest of the season then?
     
  19. 18in32

    18in32 Petard Hoister

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    To hell with it – I guarantee we win out, beat UGA, beat Clemson in the rematch, and win the OB. Guarantee. And if I'm wrong, I'll refund your money.

    You won't find a guarantee as strong as that anywhere else in the industry.
     
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  20. coit

    coit Posting at a high level

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