2019 Preseason Probability Poll Results

coit

coit

Y’all got any more of that D Fence?
Joined
Nov 29, 2007
Messages
88,316
Here's the result of the 2019 Probability Polls.

Clem: 0.230 L
USF: 0.644 W
Citadel: 0.854 L
Temple: 0.696 L
UNC: 0.642 L
Duke: 0.652 L
Miami: 0.470 W
Pitt: 0.635 L
UVA: 0.528 L
VT: 0.627 L
NCS: 0.567 W
UGA: 0.371 L

Total: 6.917 wins (-0.6 wins from 2018 predictions)

Adjusted total thru Game 1: 6.687 wins (-0.230)
Adjusted total thru Game 2: 7.044 wins (+0.357)
Adjusted total thru Game 3: 6.189 wins (-0.855)
Adjusted total thru Game 4: 5.493 wins (-0.696)
Adjusted total thru Game 5: 4.851 wins (-0.642)
Adjusted total thru Game 6: 4.198 wins (-0.653)
Adjusted total thru Game 7: 4.728 wins (+0.530)
Adjusted total thru Game 8: 4.093 wins (-0.635)
Adjusted total thru Game 9: 3.565 wins (-0.528)
Adjusted total thru Game 10: 2.938 wins (-0.627)
Adjusted total thru Game 11: 3.371 wins (+0.433)
Adjusted total thru Game 12: 3.000 wins (-0.371)

Changes in probability from 2018 repeat opponents:

Clem: -0.086 L
USF: -0.029 W
UNC: -0.070 L
Duke: -0.013 L
Miami: -0.049 W
Pitt: -0.015 L
UVA: -0.208 L
VT: 0.077 L
UGA: -0.052 L

Average : -0.047
Cumulative: -0.329

So, we are roughly 5% less optimistic this year over last year

Ranking of toughest opponents by probability:

1 Clem: 0.230 L
2 UGA: 0.371 L
3 Miami: 0.470 W
4 UVA: 0.528 L
5 NCS: 0.567 W
6 VT: 0.627 L
7 Pitt: 0.635 L
8 UNC: 0.642 L
9 USF: 0.644 W
10 Duke: 0.652 L
11 Temple: 0.696 L
12 Citadel: 0.854 L

Here's the complete voting spreadsheet. I'll be tracking each voters record through the season as described in THIS thread if you voted for all 12 games.

LINK TO SPREADSHEET


 
Last edited:
There’s something wrong with the spreadsheet embedding. Seems like something has changed for embedding the Google sheets.

Can anyone scroll this spreadsheet on a phone or tablet? It works on a desktop browser, but not the way it worked in the past.
 
coit said:
There’s something wrong with the spreadsheet embedding. Seems like something has changed for embedding the Google sheets.

Can anyone scroll this spreadsheet on a phone or tablet? It works on a desktop browser, but not the way it worked in the past.
Click to expand...
Works fine on my phone.
 
coit said:
You can scroll the sheet up and down and see all 390 lines?
Click to expand...
Screenshot_20190827-192557_Chrome.jpg

Up, down, left, right
 
Jacketblind said:
View attachment 11212

Up, down, left, right
Click to expand...

Yeah it is working for me now as well. That being said, the sheets aren’t working like they did in the past. You used to be able to see the sort buttons and such, and I as the owner could edit the data right on Stingtalk. Remember when someone had an editable spreadsheet somewhere on here a few months ago? :-). Doesn’t work anymore.
 
coit said:
There’s something wrong with the spreadsheet embedding. Seems like something has changed for embedding the Google sheets.

Can anyone scroll this spreadsheet on a phone or tablet? It works on a desktop browser, but not the way it worked in the past.
Click to expand...

If you touch one of the gray bars on side or bottom first then slide finger across screen it works.
 
I've replaced the embed with a link to the spreadsheet for now. Hopefully @BeeStorm can track down what changed in the past few months that messed up the way the spreadsheets behave. There was a thread that had an editable spreadsheet back in May or June, I think the thread is deleted now because we were all entering @BeeStorm's mom's phone number.

If you click the link, you'll get a much better version of the spreadsheet. If you are on phone or tablet and have the Google Sheets app, it will open up in that.
 
Clem: 0.2
USF: 0.6
Citadel: 1.0
Temple: 0.8
UNC: 0.6
Duke: 0.6
Miami: 0.5
Pitt: 0.5
UVA: 0.5
VT: 0.5
NCS: 0.4
UGA: 0.2
 
OP updated for Game 1 results:

Our Game 1 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.230. The total expected win value is now 6.687.
 
OP updated for Game 2 results:

Our Game 2 win has increased the expected win total by 0.357. The total expected win value is now 7.044.
 
OP updated for Game 3 results:

Our Game 3 embarrassment has decreased the expected win total by 0.855. The total expected win value is now 6.189.

6 wins seems really optimistic at this point.
 
OP updated for Game 4 results:

Our Game 4 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.696. The total expected win value is now 5.493.

If anyone thinks we will win 4 more games, feel free to chime in.
 
coit said:
OP updated for Game 4 results:

Our Game 4 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.696. The total expected win value is now 5.493.

If anyone thinks we will win 4 more games, feel free to chime in.
Click to expand...
The beautiful thing about reality is that past performance is no guarantee of future results. Of course there's still time for the staff to get their act together.
 
18in32 said:
The beautiful thing about reality is that past performance is no guarantee of future results. Of course there's still time for the staff to get their act together.
Click to expand...

So, I can put you down for 4 or more wins the rest of the season then?
 
coit said:
So, I can put you down for 4 or more wins the rest of the season then?
Click to expand...
To hell with it – I guarantee we win out, beat UGA, beat Clemson in the rematch, and win the OB. Guarantee. And if I'm wrong, I'll refund your money.

You won't find a guarantee as strong as that anywhere else in the industry.
 
18in32 said:
To hell with it – I guarantee we win out, beat UGA, beat Clemson in the rematch, and win the OB. Guarantee. And if I'm wrong, I'll refund your money.

You won't find a guarantee as strong as that anywhere else in the industry.
Click to expand...

GDwHNV9.jpg
 
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