2020 Preseason Prediction Poll Results

coit

coit

Persecuted for his beliefs
Joined
Nov 29, 2007
Messages
88,464
Here's the results of the 2020 prediction polls:

FSU: 0.56 W
UCF: 0.64 L
Syr: 0.93 L
UL: 0.37 W
Clem: 0.12 L
BC: 0.92 L
ND: 0.17 L
Pitt: 0.64
Miami: 0.53
Duke: 0.85 W
NC St: 0.92 L

Total: 6.66 wins (-0.26 wins from 2019 predictions)

So, we are slightly less optimistic this year over last year.

Adjusted total thru Game 1: 7.10 wins (+0.44)
Adjusted total thru Game 2: 6.46 wins (-0.64)
Adjusted total thru Game 3: 5.53 wins (-0.93)
Adjusted total thru Game 4: 6.16 wins (+0.63)
Adjusted total thru Game 5: 6.04 wins (-0.12)
Adjusted total thru Game 6: 5.12 wins (-0.92)
Adjusted total thru Game 7: 4.93 wins (-0.17)
Adjusted total thru Game 8: 5.08 wins (+0.15)
Adjusted total thru Game 9: 4.16 wins (-0.92)

Ranking of toughest opponents by probability:

1 Clem: 0.12 L
2 ND: 0.17 L
3 UL: 0.37 W
4 Miami: 0.53
5 FSU: 0.56 W
6 UCF: 0.64 L
7 Pitt: 0.64
8 Duke: 0.85 W
9 BC: 0.92 L
10 NC St: 0.92 L
11 Syr: 0.93 L

Here's the complete voting spreadsheet. I'll be tracking each voters record through the season if you voted for all 11 games. Kudos to @FHstinger for being the only miserable SOB to predict an 0-11 season.

 
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OP updated for Game 1 results:

Our Game 1 win has increased the expected win total by 0.44. The total expected win value is now 7.10.

The Stingtalk majority actually had this one as a win, so kudos to the masses! I've updated the second tab of the spreadsheet to keep track of each voter's right and wrong predictions through the season for those that voted on each game.
 
OP updated for Game 2 results:

Our Game 2 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.64. The total expected win value is now 6.46.

About a dozen Stingtalkers have a perfect 2-0 record through the second game of the season.
 
OP updated for Game 4 results:

Our Game 4 win has increased the expected win total by 0.63. The total expected win value is now 6.16. We have beaten 2 of our 5 most difficult opponents according to your votes, and lost to 2 of the 6 easiest.

Things are starting to thin out a bit in the prediction contest. We have the following Stingtalkers in the lead with a 3-1 record:

@cyptomcat
@OptionsJacket
@TechRush

With a large number behind at 2-2.
 
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coit said:
OP updated for Game 4 results:

Our Game 4 win has increased the expected win total by 0.63. The total expected win value is now 6.16. We have beaten 2 of our 5 most difficult opponents according to your votes, and lost to 2 of the 6 easiest.

Things are starting to thin out a bit in the prediction contest. We have the following Stingtalkers in the lead with a 3-1 record:

@cyptomcat
@OptionsJacket
@TechRush

With a large number behind at 2-2.
Click to expand...
I'm a perfect 4-0. Called for 2-2 record at this point but have gotten every game wrong.
 
It seems surprising to me, but there are actually 17 out of 81 participants with an 0 and 4 record.
 
coit said:
OP updated for Game 4 results:

Our Game 4 win has increased the expected win total by 0.63. The total expected win value is now 6.16. We have beaten 2 of our 5 most difficult opponents according to your votes, and lost to 2 of the 6 easiest.

Things are starting to thin out a bit in the prediction contest. We have the following Stingtalkers in the lead with a 3-1 record:

@cyptomcat
@OptionsJacket
@TechRush

With a large number behind at 2-2.
Click to expand...

Hope @cyptomcat and I end up tying. Would be a phenomenal season. (Picked exactly the same)
 
coit said:
It seems surprising to me, but there are actually 17 out of 81 participants with an 0 and 4 record.
Click to expand...
So 17 people thought we beat Syracuse and UCF, and lose to FSU and Louisville. It doesn't sound too surprising to me. In the FSU and Syracuse cases, that was even the expected result according to Vegas, and they went against the expected result for the other two.
 
cyptomcat said:
I wouldn't mind if I was wrong on my predicted losses for Clemson and ND.

I also wouldn't mind if we won one or two of those and just lost elsewhere. Upsets are fun.
Click to expand...

We do have funky voodoo magic against top ranked Clemson teams...
 
OP updated for Game 5 results:

Our Game 5 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.12. The total expected win value is now 6.04.

Still have the following Stingtalkers in the lead with a 4-1 record:

@cyptomcat
@OptionsJacket
@TechRush
 
Forgot to update last week. So, through 7 games, our expected win value is 4.93 wins. Seems optimistic at this point.

In the prediction contest, @TechRush is alone in the lead with an impressive 6-1 record, missing only the first game. He has us winning two more games, so that is good to know!
 
I just want everyone to know that I am not happy nor proud to be leading this contest.
 
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