2021 Pre-Season Probability Poll Discussion Thread

coit

Smarter than Diseqc
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Nov 29, 2007
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The PPP is back for 2021, baybee! The season is just about 6 weeks away, and I think most all of us (with some notable exceptions) are excited for the season to get underway! As in past years (other than 2020), I will be tracking everyone's performance through the season and handing out kudos at the end for top performers, so be sure to vote in every poll if you want to participate in that.

Links to each week's poll will be added here as each game's poll is released:

TBD

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In previous seasons we've developed some scoring systems that attempt to incentivize picks that are close to the actual result. We have taken to calling these the TIAScore and the GGTScore weighting factors. These systems are described below.

The @ThisIsAtlanta / @GoGATech Scoring Systems

TIA Score Weighting:


For a Win, your score equals your win probability.
For a Loss, your score equals 1 minus your win probability.
  • If we win a game you predicted as 0.9 you get 0.9
  • If we lose a game you predicted as 0.9 you get 0.1
  • If we lose a game you predicted as 0.1 you get 0.6
  • If we win a game you predicted as 0.1 you get 0.1
This rewards those who realistically vote low probabilities for the games we end up losing and those who vote high probabilities for the games we end up winning.


GoGATech / 18in32 Scoring Modification:

Score starts with the TIA scoring described above. Each game is given a result value according to the following index, which is based on the point spread of the final score:
  • 0.4 = three possession (>16 pt) win
  • 0.3 = two TD (>11 pt) win
  • 0.2 = two possession (>8 pt) win
  • 0.1 = TD (>3 pt) win
  • 0.0 = win or loss by < 3 pts
  • -0.1 = TD (>3 pt) loss
  • -0.2 = two possession (>8 pt) loss
  • -0.3 = two TD (>11 pt) loss
  • -0.4 = three possession (>16 pt) loss
The modified score is calculated by multiplying the TIA score by 1 minus the absolute value of each vote probability minus 0.5 minus the game result value above.

GGTScore = TIAScore * (1 - abs(VoteProb - 0.5 - GameResultValue)

This rewards vote probabilities that are closer to final outcome by giving them a higher weight than results that are further from the actual final outcome.

The final result of these two weighting systems produces a score that reasonably reflects how close to the actual result a voter's predictions are on a game by game and seasonal basis.

If you'd like to reminisce about past polls, links are below.

2019 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2019-preseason-probability-poll-results.101870/
2018 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2018-preseason-probability-poll-results.97791/
 
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