2021 Preseason Probability Poll Results

coit

Smarter than Diseqc
Joined
Nov 29, 2007
Messages
70,681
Here's the result of the 2021 Probability Polls. I am comparing our voting results to the ESPN preseason probabilities and to our 2019 polls for common opponents. Interesting that votes were more pessimistic for our first two opponents that the remainder of the schedule.

Screen Shot 2021-09-04 at 10.43.21 AM.png

Total: 6.577 wins (-0.34 wins from 2019 predictions)

Adjusted total thru Game 1: 5.748 wins (-0.829)
Adjusted total thru Game 2: 5.954 wins (+0.206)
Adjusted total thru Game 3: 5.720 wins (-0.234)


Ranking of toughest opponents by probability:

1 Clem : 0.234 L
2 ND : 0.346
3 UGA : 0.385
4 UNC : 0.415
5 Miami : 0.440
6 UVA : 0.581
7 Pitt : 0.593
8 BC : 0.604
9 VT : 0.605
10 Duke : 0.751
11 Ken St : 0.794 W
12 N Ill : 0.829 L

Here's the complete voting spreadsheet. I'll be tracking each voters record through the season as described in THIS thread if you voted for all 12 games.

LINK TO SPREADSHEET

 
Last edited:

ThisIsAtlanta

Actually Nicolas Cage
Staff member
Joined
Oct 18, 2009
Messages
59,352
We can already see ESPN Duke and UNC percentages were wrong city.
 

coit

Smarter than Diseqc
Joined
Nov 29, 2007
Messages
70,681
OP updated for Game 1 results.

Our Game 1 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.829. The total expected win value is now 5.748 wins.
 

coit

Smarter than Diseqc
Joined
Nov 29, 2007
Messages
70,681
OP updated for Game 2 results.

Our Game 2 win has increased the expected win total by 0.206. The total expected win value is now 5.954 wins.


Well, the two easiest games are behind us. All uphill from here.
 

coit

Smarter than Diseqc
Joined
Nov 29, 2007
Messages
70,681
OP updated for Game 3 results.

Our Game 3 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.234. The total expected win value is now 5.720 wins.
 
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