2021 Preseason Probability Poll Results

coit

Sunshine and Rainbows
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Nov 29, 2007
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Here's the result of the 2021 Probability Polls. I am comparing our voting results to the ESPN preseason probabilities and to our 2019 polls for common opponents. Interesting that votes were more pessimistic for our first two opponents that the remainder of the schedule.

Screen Shot 2021-09-04 at 10.43.21 AM.png


Total: 6.577 wins (-0.34 wins from 2019 predictions)

Adjusted total thru Game 1: 5.748 wins (-0.829)
Adjusted total thru Game 2: 5.954 wins (+0.206)
Adjusted total thru Game 3: 5.720 wins (-0.234)
Adjusted total thru Game 4: 6.305 wins (+0.585)
Adjusted total thru Game 5: 5.712 wins (-0.593)
Adjusted total thru Game 6: 5.961 wins (+0.249)
Adjusted total thru Game 7: 5.380 wins (-0.581)
Adjusted total thru Game 8: 4.775 wins (-0.605)
Adjusted total thru Game 9: 4.335 wins (-0.440)
Adjusted total thru Game 10: 3.731 wins (-0.604)
Adjusted total thru Game 11: 3.385 wins (-0.346)


Ranking of toughest opponents by probability:

1 Clem : 0.234 L
2 ND : 0.346 L
3 UGA : 0.385
4 UNC : 0.415 W
5 Miami : 0.440 L
6 UVA : 0.581 L
7 Pitt : 0.593 L
8 BC : 0.604 L
9 VT : 0.605 L
10 Duke : 0.751 W
11 Ken St : 0.794 W
12 N Ill : 0.829 L

Here's the complete voting spreadsheet. I'll be tracking each voters record through the season as described in THIS thread if you voted for all 12 games.

LINK TO SPREADSHEET

 
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ThisIsAtlanta

Break In Case Of Emergency
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We can already see ESPN Duke and UNC percentages were wrong city.
 

coit

Sunshine and Rainbows
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OP updated for Game 1 results.

Our Game 1 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.829. The total expected win value is now 5.748 wins.
 

coit

Sunshine and Rainbows
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Nov 29, 2007
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OP updated for Game 2 results.

Our Game 2 win has increased the expected win total by 0.206. The total expected win value is now 5.954 wins.


Well, the two easiest games are behind us. All uphill from here.
 

coit

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Nov 29, 2007
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OP updated for Game 3 results.

Our Game 3 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.234. The total expected win value is now 5.720 wins.
 

gtchief

Not Wrong, Just An A******
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Jul 4, 2015
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ESPN FPI now has us projected at 4 wins and 8 losses even

USAToday 1-130 Re-Rank has us 88th
 

coit

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OP updated for Game 4 results.

Our Game 4 win has increased the expected win total by 0.585. The total expected win value is now 6.305 wins.

We are back above our pre-season win threshold of 6. Of note, voters rated the UNC game the most pessimistically when comparing the 2019 results to the 2021 results, with a 35% drop in optimism.

The regular season is 25% complete, and the race for the Stingtalk PPP championship is taking shape.

For basic prediction accuracy, there's a group of 8 with a record of 3-1. Here's a list of top prognosticators for the other scoring methods:

TIA Scoring: @ee8384, @G776T, @GT18YJjr.

GoGATech Scoring: @BrentwoodJacket, @coit, @G776T

GoGaTech Raw Score: @BrentwoodJacket, @BranMart, @coit
 
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ee8384

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OP updated for Game 4 results.

Our Game 4 win has increased the expected win total by 0.585. The total expected win value is now 6.305 wins.

We are back above our pre-season win threshold of 6. Of note, voters rated the UNC game the most pessimistically when comparing the 2019 results to the 2021 results, with a 35% drop in optimism.

The regular season is 25% complete, and the race for the Stingtalk PPP championship is taking shape.

For basic prediction accuracy, there's a group of 8 with a record of 3-1. Here's a list of top prognosticators for the other scoring methods:

TIA Scoring: @ee8384, @G776T, @GT18YJjr.

GoGATech Scoring: @BrentwoodJacket, @coit, @G776T

GoGaTech Raw Score: @BrentwoodJacket, @BranMart, @coit
Egg-cellent!

batman-robin-1966-tv-egghead.jpg
 
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gtchief

Not Wrong, Just An A******
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Jul 4, 2015
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ESPN FPI now has us projected at 5.6 wins and 6.5 losses, with a 53.4% chance to get to 6 wins.

USAToday 1-130 Re-Rank has us 48th, a leap of 40! spots. We are one spot ahead of UNC (49th). Pitt is 4 spots ahead at 44th.
 

coit

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OP updated for Game 5 results.

Our Game 5 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.593. The total expected win value is now 5.712 wins.
 

gtchief

Not Wrong, Just An A******
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Messages
4,749
ESPN FPI now has us projected at 4.8 wins and 7.2 losses, with a 26.3% chance to get to 6 wins.

USAToday 1-130 Re-Rank has us 66th, a drop of 18 spots. Pitt is now 29th. Duke is 81st.
 

coit

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OP updated for Game 6 results.

Our Game 6 win has increased the expected win total by 0.291. The total expected win value is now 5.961 wins. Still below our pre-season win prediction of 6.577.

The regular season is 50% complete, and the race for the Stingtalk PPP championship continues to take shape.

For basic prediction accuracy, @GT98 stands alone with a 5-1 record. @ee8384 has the distinction of being alone in last place with a 2-4 record.

Here's a list of top prognosticators for the other scoring methods:

GoGATech Scoring: @Vespinae, @G776T, @MeatWrench, @ThisIsAtlanta
 

coit

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OP updated for Game 7 results.

Our Game 7 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.581. The total expected win value is now 5.380 wins.
 

coit

Sunshine and Rainbows
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OP updated for Game 8 results.

Our Game 8 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.605. The total expected win value is now 4.775 wins.


The regular season is two-thirds complete, and the race for the Stingtalk PPP championship has seen dramatic changes since our last update.

For basic prediction accuracy, @GT98 still leading with a 7-1 record. @ee8384 still alone in last place with a 2-6 record.

Here's a list of top prognosticators for the other scoring methods:

TIA Scoring: @cbee, @WracerX, @FHstinger, @BainbridgeJacket

GoGATech Scoring: @WracerX, @BainbridgeJacket, @GT18YJjr., @cbee

GoGaTech Raw Score: @BainbridgeJacket, @WracerX, @1982Jacket, @Tshirt Man, @GTWannaBee, @GT18YJjr.
 
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