2nd Chance POLL: What is the probability we beat Boston College in 2023

2nd Chance: What is the probability we beat Boston College in 2023

  • Total voters
    99
  • Poll closed .
coit

coit

Bullseye
Joined
Nov 29, 2007
Messages
92,279
Poll to gauge the change in confidence as the season goes along.

BC 3-3 / ESPN FPI -5.0 (-2.1 YTD)
GT: 3-3 / ESPN FPI +1.4 (-0.1 YTD)

GT ESPN FPI Win Probability: 74.3% (+9.3%)
 
I went with 0.50 until we prove that homefield for us is actually an advantage this year.
 
I went with 50/50, 'cause we'll either win or we won't!

Go Jackets!! Beat that other team that doesn't have University in their Official School Name!
 
Its all downhill at this point. I choose Zero.Negative best case. Just don't see it - there is no scenario in which we prevail.

Just told Drizzly to set up a remote distribution center in the abandoned house next door. Save a buck or two on delivery tips when, by halftime, the student body of Cumberland University start texting each other at a furious pace with a certain anticipation.
 
verdi said:
We are going to crush BC. This is an easy W. I believe in Key and King!! Let’s go!!! ACC dark horse crew!
Click to expand...
So something has been bugging me about BC and I think I just figured out what it is. I usually spend a little bit of time reviewing stats for upcoming games and something was not adding up with BC - something was missing in their rushing stats - I'm looking at YPC and 3rd down conversion rate and rushing TD and its not making sense.

Then, I found it. Holy Crikey - they are damn near unstoppable on 4th down - they have gone for it on 4th down TWENTY times already - and they converted 14 of them including 4/5 against F$U. They are at 70% for the year. The bad news for us is that our opponents thus far are converting about 45% of 3rd and 4th downs collectively.

The worse news for us is that we are the fifth worst team in the country at forcing opponents to punt.

This game is not going to look like everybody thinks its going to look.
 
But our new D.C though..... He gonna help slow down that 4th down train! From the sideline.
 
2nd chance probability is 0.610, a decrease of 15% from the pre-season poll.

While not the 45% drop we saw for the Miami game, this is still a significant decrease in confidence, especially given that the ESPN FPI numbers show a 9% increase in win probability from the pre-season numbers.
 
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