2nd Chance POLL: What is the probability we beat Georgia State in 2024

[coit]

Poll to gauge the change in confidence as the season goes along.

GSU: 0-0 / ESPN FPI -5.5 (+0.0 YTD)
GT: 1-0 / ESPN FPI 5.7 (+6.3 YTD)

GT ESPN FPI Win Probability: 93.3% (+2.5%)
ST Pre-Season Win Probability: 85.1% (90% max basis)

Adjusting our pre-season poll to count all 0.9 votes as 1.0 would raise the result to 92%.

 

[madRazor]

Adjusting our pre-season poll to count all 0.9 votes as 1.0 would raise the result to 92%.

Uhhhh when I voted (this is why I didn't vote) 0.9 I meant 0.9 ... how dare you count it as 1.0. Wtf the hubris.

 

[coit]

Uhhhh when I voted (this is why I didn't vote) 0.9 I meant 0.9 ... how dare you count it as 1.0. Wtf the hubris.

Key word: Would

In this case, represents a conditional.

If you assume a 50/50 split, probability WOULD be 88%.

 

[madRazor]

Key word: Would

In this case, represents a conditional.

If you assume a 50/50 split, probability WOULD be 88%.

or you could just make use of 1.0 and 0.0 like god intended

 

[coit]

or you could just make use of 1.0 and 0.0 like god intended

I'll consider it for next year.

 

[madRazor]

I'll consider it for next year.

thanks, unfortunately by then it'll be too late to matter, since coming off this year's MNC, everyone will just vote MAX for every game

 

[ee8384]

Same vote as first time around

 

[JJacket]

1.0

Since the OP doesn't understand math.

 

[coit]

Don't forget to vote!

 

[Diseqc]

 

[coit]

2nd chance probability is 0.868, an increase of 2% from the pre-season poll.

If all 0.9s in the original poll were treated as 0.9 and the 2nd chance poll they are treated as 1.0, the increase would be 10%

 

[GT76]

If all 0.9s in the original poll were treated as 0.9 and the 2nd chance poll they are treated as 1.0, the increase would be 10%

What kind of sorcery is this? Amazing!

 

[coit]

What kind of sorcery is this? Amazing!

LOL, just addressing all of the 0.9 haters in the room.

Logic being that there should be some increase in voter confidence after the last game. Since 0.9 is the highest available option and a lot of people voted 0.9 already, there's no way to register an increase in confidence. Therefore, a way to capture the highest possible increase in confidence would be to assume that everyone that voted 0.9 the first time intended it to be 0.9. And everyone that voted 0.9 in the 2nd chance poll intended it to be a 1.0. This means that maximum possible increase in confidence amongst those that voted is 10%.

 

[madRazor]

LOL, just addressing all of the 0.9 haters in the room.

Logic being that there should be some increase in voter confidence after the last game. Since 0.9 is the highest available option and a lot of people voted 0.9 already, there's no way to register an increase in confidence. Therefore, a way to capture the highest possible increase in confidence would be to assume that everyone that voted 0.9 the first time intended it to be 0.9. And everyone that voted 0.9 in the 2nd chance poll intended it to be a 1.0. This means that maximum possible increase in confidence amongst those that voted is 10%.

That sounds complicated, instead maybe next time you should try to beat off more.

 

[coit]

That sounds complicated, instead maybe next time you should try to beat off more.

Or perhaps less?

 

[The Jacket]

Damn I keep missing these threads

 

[justafan]

We will never lose to Georgia State in football.