2nd Chance POLL: What is the probability we beat Miami in 2022

2nd Chance: What is the probability we beat Miami in 2022

  • Total voters
    114
  • Poll closed .
coit

coit

Bullseye
Joined
Nov 29, 2007
Messages
92,301
Miami: 4-5 / ESPN FPI +0.1 (-14.4 YTD)
GT: 4-5 / ESPN FPI -4.4 (-4.6 YTD)

GT ESPN Win Probability: 44.6% (+25.4% YTD)

Somewhat notable is that Miami is 1-8 against the spread this year as compared to GT's 4-5 record ATS. Also notable is that Miami has seen the biggest drop in FPI rankings of any of our opponents, from #9 to #67 this week.
 
Strangely enough, we enter mid-November with the same record as Miami and better records than Texas A&M and Auburn.

Don't think any of us saw that coming or the way we've arrived at 4-5.
 
Picking this game is next to impossible. Duh U has been all over, this year. They have had some games, where they compete and can beat almost anyone. On the other side, they have played games, where they could lose to a high school. They are worse than us, with the Dr. Jekyll / Mr. Hyde syndrome.
 
Miami is bad. They got absolutely boatraced by Florida State (Norvell's agent will be sending them a thank you card since that pretty much turned down any heat on his seat). They were bad against Virginia. They had 8 turnovers in a loss to Duke. They had at least 4 Saturday against the Noles. Even in beating Va Tech, they had 17 penalties, IIRC. They've gone two straight games without a touchdown I believe.
Van Dyke is out, and he looked pretty good against us last year - then again, last year, who didn't?

All that said, we also have the propensity of stepping on the rake in the front yard at times like these.
 
Jmonty71 said:
Picking this game is next to impossible. Duh U has been all over, this year. They have had some games, where they compete and can beat almost anyone. On the other side, they have played games, where they could lose to a high school. They are worse than us, with the Dr. Jekyll / Mr. Hyde syndrome.
Click to expand...

I, think, you, are, correct, in, your, assessment
 
Jmonty71 said:
Picking this game is next to impossible. Duh U has been all over, this year. They have had some games, where they compete and can beat almost anyone. On the other side, they have played games, where they could lose to a high school. They are worse than us, with the Dr. Jekyll / Mr. Hyde syndrome.
Click to expand...

In which games did they look like world beaters? They beat Bethune-Cookman and Southern Miss soundly, got past VPI, and won a cripple fight against UVA. That’s not a great resume of wins, and their losses are worse.

I have no idea whether we’ll win or not - this game seems like a tossup, especially since we don’t know who will be playing QB for either team. But Miami hasn’t shown me any more than Tech has, and we seem to be on a slightly better trajectory, especially when you factor in Miami’s annual downturn after they realize that Da U Is Still Not Back.

JRjr
 
What is the status of Miami's QB? They had that highly hyped guy, but he is out, right? I watched parts of the 2nd half of the Miami-FSU game and they had a guy taking snaps that looked like had never played the position before.
 
vapspwi said:
In which games did they look like world beaters? They beat Bethune-Cookman and Southern Miss soundly, got past VPI, and won a cripple fight against UVA. That’s not a great resume of wins, and their losses are worse.

I have no idea whether we’ll win or not - this game seems like a tossup, especially since we don’t know who will be playing QB for either team. But Miami hasn’t shown me any more than Tech has, and we seem to be on a slightly better trajectory, especially when you factor in Miami’s annual downturn after they realize that Da U Is Still Not Back.

JRjr
Click to expand...
Listen, I hope you are right. However; this isn't some come out and get an easy win type game. I get we are coming out as favorites. We were favored against UVA too. How did that work out? I am saying, most games it's just a question of which GT team shows up. With this one, Miami has the same (if not more) Dr. Jekyll / Mr. Hyde issues, than we do. We can look at our talent and point to why we are sitting under .500. Miami cannot do the same. I wouldn't call Miami as bad as Texas A&M, but the recruiting to win ratio is off.
 
Sucking less than miami looks very doable. Our staff will try but our players have more fight than duhU.
 
Feels like a coin-flip. I think the consensus is spot-on here.
 
Feeling really good about this one. The offense will only continue to improve as Pyron gains more experience, team morale will be high, and Miami really isn't that good. If only we had played Pyron against UVA this would likely be for bowl eligibility...
 
We are not losing to these storks at home with a bowl on the line.

Is Miami's starting QB still on the injured list? If so, bank it. If he's back, could be interesting.
 
2nd chance probability is 0.532, an increase of 46% from the pre-season poll.

Seems clear that this is the result of Miami's dumpster fire season. Looks like Stingtalkers are slightly more optimistic than the ESPI FPI.
 
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