2nd Chance POLL: What is the probability we beat UVA in 2022

[coit]

UVA: 2-4 / ESPN FPI -3.3 (-5.5 YTD)
GT: 3-3 / ESPN FPI -3.7 (-3.3 YTD)

GT ESPN Win Probability: 57.5% (+6.8%)

 

[Jmonty71]

60% roughly.. Not totally out of bounds..

 

[andrew]

Feeling great about this one. I think we come out looking well prepared after some extra prep time and take care of business from the beginning.

 

[ThomsonJacket]

Can't believe I clicked .7 with confidence.

 

[coit]

Can't believe I clicked .7 with confidence.

What number did you click with .7 confidence?

 

[ThomsonJacket]

What number did you click with .7 confidence?

The one up yonder? You want a comma or something?

 

[Highriser987]

This one is looking good let’s get it done!!

 

[coit]

The one up yonder? You want a comma or something?

I thought maybe you clicked 0.8 with 0.7 confidence.

What is the difference between probability and confidence?

Answer (1 of 5): Probability is the odds of a favorable outcome occurring. So if I am flipping a coin the probability of flipping a head is 1/2. In statistics, there is a concept known as a confidence interval. Say I am flipping 10 coins, I wonder how many of these coins are likely to some up he...

www.quora.com

 

[justafan]

I think we have a lot of good players on defense this season, and it's started to become apparent past few games.

A lot hinges on Jeff Sims. No offense to the backup dude but the drop-off after Sims looks steep.

Large let-down game potential so I'm at 50%

 

[Diseqc]

Those bitches are getting beat

 

[justafan]

Armstrong put up 500 yards and 6 TD on us last season. We have the same DC, many of the same players...

 

[cincyjacket]

I guarantee either a win or a loss.

 

[ThomsonJacket]

I thought maybe you clicked 0.8 with 0.7 confidence.

What is the difference between probability and confidence?

Answer (1 of 5): Probability is the odds of a favorable outcome occurring. So if I am flipping a coin the probability of flipping a head is 1/2. In statistics, there is a concept known as a confidence interval. Say I am flipping 10 coins, I wonder how many of these coins are likely to some up he...

www.quora.com

I have 100% confidence in my choice of a 70% win probably.

 

[jacket67]

This is a pretty big test for CBK, because interim coaches don't get the benefit of a grace period. He needs to win when we are favored at home to stay in consideration for the head coaching job.

 

[justafan]

This is a pretty big test for CBK, because interim coaches don't get the benefit of a grace period. He needs to win when we are favored at home to stay in consideration for the head coaching job.

Mostly agree, but can imagine some other situations where he should stay in consideration. A UGA win would be a mulligan.

 

[GTWannaBee]

Armstrong put up 500 yards and 6 TD on us last season. We have the same DC, many of the same players...

Different head coach. How is that so hard for you to understand?

 

[gtrower]

Armstrong put up 500 yards and 6 TD on us last season. We have the same DC, many of the same players...

I haven’t watched them this year so was surprised their offensive numbers are so bad. Apparently their starting like 4 frosh on the OL? Armstrong has likely cost himself a lot of $ by returning. Was in Heisman discussions part of last season and now his numbers look like a bad option QB.

Also assuming it’s their OL that is an issue I expect him to be running for his life against a DL that’s been playing well for us. He’s certainly capable with his legs tho.

I went 0.7. Thursday night home games are usually a big lift in college football.

 

[IM79]

1000 %

 

[coit]

Last chance bump

 

[coit]

2nd chance probability is 0.658, an increase of 31% from the pre-season poll.

The trend of optimism continues. This is likely a combination of our last few weeks and UVA having a weak season to date.