Clemson probability thread

N

NATSman

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Before the season started, I'd have given Tech a 15% chance to beat Clemson, mostly based on our defensive front and Clemson's reputation for tanking once or twice a year. Needless to say, a lot has happened with both teams since then. After last night's game, and factoring in the noon kickoff time, I'm sort of thinking that Tech should be a mild favorite, maybe a 55% chance to win. I am interested to see what everyone else thinks.
 
NATSman said:
Before the season started, I'd have given Tech a 15% chance to beat Clemson, mostly based on our defensive front and Clemson's reputation for tanking once or twice a year. Needless to say, a lot has happened with both teams since then. After last night's game, and factoring in the noon kickoff time, I'm sort of thinking that Tech should be a mild favorite, maybe a 55% chance to win. I am interested to see what everyone else thinks.
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Ain't skeered.

80%

Clemson is weak. Would be 85%, but it is at death valley. Even though I will be there and will be louder than the entire stadium. Anyone know what Clemson City Prison is like?
 
Tech now has a 67.362% chance of winning
If weather is factored in, and it is not a rainy day, that rises to 68.12% whereas an extremely rainy day would lower the probability to 65.271%.

if it is not rainy, but very windy, then the probability goes to 69.72%; the probability of that happening, however, is only 13.46%
 
I put 60%. It would be 75% if it were at home, I would think.
 
80%. It's not that I feel really confident in our team, it's the Clemson is really bad and I feel fairly confident in our team, and very confident in our coach. I can't wait for next weekend.
 
Injuries could factor in. QB for us, obviously.

For Clemson, Spiller went out last night and returned to the sideline in street clothes (although it didn't look bad) and one of their OLs went down - from a group that hasn't been spectacular to start with. With Spiller out that takes away the passing game to the backs because Davis can't freakin catch nor can he run a basic pass route (based on what I saw last night).
 
BuzzCzar said:
Tech now has a 67.362% chance of winning
If weather is factored in, and it is not a rainy day, that rises to 68.12% whereas an extremely rainy day would lower the probability to 65.271%.

if it is not rainy, but very windy, then the probability goes to 69.72%; the probability of that happening, however, is only 13.46%
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Did you know that 43.7% of statistics are made up on the spot?!?!!!

I think we have about 70% chance of winning and if it rains HARD then we have a 45% chance.
 
ContactBuzz said:
Injuries could factor in. QB for us, obviously.

For Clemson, Spiller went out last night and returned to the sideline in street clothes (although it didn't look bad) and one of their OLs went down - from a group that hasn't been spectacular to start with. With Spiller out that takes away the passing game to the backs because Davis can't freakin catch nor can he run a basic pass route (based on what I saw last night).
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I think every skill player that Clemson has was limping at the the end of the game last night. They have time to heal up; but they are banged up right now.
 
Word on the skreet is that spiller is done for a while, possibly the season. Also Bowden may be outta there before the weekend is even out.

I pegged this game as a toss-up at the beginning of the season(unlike a lot of people I saw this offense working well with what we had, and realized that our D was still good). Now I would put it more like 75%.
 
As for rain...

See also: Mike Sewak 2004 GSU vs. UNH. Paul Johnson 1998 14-0 record GSU vs. UMASS.

With that said, Erk Russel's Eagles first night game was during hurricane Hugo and we shut out our then rival MTSU 28-0(?) in what is now known as the "Hugo Bowl". And Paul Johnson dominated in the championship game in 2000 in the swamp field of chattanooga vs. Montana Griz.

If I understand correctly a slippery field stops the cuts and jukes that the runners make and increse fumbles on handoffs and tackles.

EDIT: with this point I might have made my own earlier point moot.
 
Yellow Fever said:
As for rain...

See also: Mike Sewak 2004 GSU vs. UNH. Paul Johnson 1998 14-0 record GSU vs. UMASS.

With that said, Erk Russel's Eagles first night game was during hurricane Hugo and we shut out our then rival MTSU 28-0(?) in what is now known as the "Hugo Bowl". And Paul Johnson dominated in the championship game in 2000 in the swamp field of chattanooga vs. Montana Griz.

If I understand correctly a slippery field stops the cuts and jukes that the runners make and increse fumbles on handoffs and tackles.

EDIT: with this point I might have made my own earlier point moot.
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I don't recall the the 2004 game, but I was at the 1998 game and it wasn't just the rain. It was quite possibly the coldest I have ever been in my life. IIRC, GSU fumbled 7 times and still only lost 55-43. The offense doesn't exactly translate, but our defense won't be giving up 55 points in any weather conditions.
 
00Burdell said:
Why would our odds decrease in wet weather? Seems to me they would go up. Clemson has to pass. We don't.
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which is why the statistics i made up show an increased probability of winning in the wind, without rain. but with our fumbling history a wet ball seems like a bad idea!
 
I think we have about at 70% chance to win this one. I don't give the home crowd much @ Clemson because, well, they should be quite deflated after last night. Their chances at the CG are now more than likely gone. Plus I see CPJ really taking this GT team to another level, and we win more than expect this year. I think after reading/listening to what he said about GW, I don't think this guy overlooks anyone by any means, which will keep the players focused and winning.
 
75+%. Surprised noone has mentioned the most obvious factor, our DL vs. their OL. Their offense has tanked compared to last reason with the same non-linemen. Our DL will eat them alive.
 
After watching that debacle of a game last night, 90% assuming we have 2 healthy QBs.

Clemson, friends, has quit. They've quit on their coach, and their coach has quit on his players. They've all quit. They're just biding time for the season to be over, and all their fans realize it.

Oh, and Spiller is the only guy on their team that scares me, and he just pulled his hamstring.
 
haywire83 said:
I don't recall the the 2004 game, but I was at the 1998 game and it wasn't just the rain. It was quite possibly the coldest I have ever been in my life. IIRC, GSU fumbled 7 times and still only lost 55-43. The offense doesn't exactly translate, but our defense won't be giving up 55 points in any weather conditions.
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Perhaps cold rain is the killer, the only time I ever remember GSU getting shut out was in below 0 degree weather in Montana... we lost 0-45

During the 2004 UNH game it was about 40 degrees and pouring!!! Coldest i've ever been in my life... and I had my shirt off like a drunken idiot.
 
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