Longestdays
Flats Noob
- Joined
- Oct 9, 2011
- Messages
- 742
Duke does not beat themselves. Low penalties (Ranked #2) and +1 turnovers per game (rank #12).
Baylor has very similar S&P ratings with a 2x rated offense and 1xx rated defense as GT. The score was 40 to 27 Duke. Baylors scores came in the second half (14 possession game).
That yields 28.5 points in a 10 possession game. This is about my expected case. That means GT has to score TDs on 4 of the possessions and a field goal. The defense will have to get 5 non scoring stops to be competitive and 6 to win the game.
Army allowed 34 points in 9 possessions and are similarly ranked S&P defense. This is my worse case. GT will have to score TDs on 5 possessions and hold Duke to 4 TDs and 2 field goals with 4 stops. Duke punted once and fumbled once for the Amry game. Duke was +1 turnover in this game.
Source:
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa
The stats for Baylor show 2 lost fumbles and 44 yards of penalties. Duke had zero turnovers and no penalties.
Source:
http://www.espn.com/college-football/matchup?gameId=401013028
If GT is going to win the turnover battle, GT will have to not fumble and not throw an interception!
GT has to stay away from the penalties including chop blocks!
Now, may GT score on 9 of 10 possessions and hold Duke to 21 points.
Baylor has very similar S&P ratings with a 2x rated offense and 1xx rated defense as GT. The score was 40 to 27 Duke. Baylors scores came in the second half (14 possession game).
That yields 28.5 points in a 10 possession game. This is about my expected case. That means GT has to score TDs on 4 of the possessions and a field goal. The defense will have to get 5 non scoring stops to be competitive and 6 to win the game.
Army allowed 34 points in 9 possessions and are similarly ranked S&P defense. This is my worse case. GT will have to score TDs on 5 possessions and hold Duke to 4 TDs and 2 field goals with 4 stops. Duke punted once and fumbled once for the Amry game. Duke was +1 turnover in this game.
Source:
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa
The stats for Baylor show 2 lost fumbles and 44 yards of penalties. Duke had zero turnovers and no penalties.
Source:
http://www.espn.com/college-football/matchup?gameId=401013028
If GT is going to win the turnover battle, GT will have to not fumble and not throw an interception!
GT has to stay away from the penalties including chop blocks!
Now, may GT score on 9 of 10 possessions and hold Duke to 21 points.
