Dwyer for heisman talk on ajc.....

law_bee

law_bee

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http://www.ajc.com/gatech/content/sports/gatech/index.html?cxntlid=nav_sprts_tch


the reality is IF GT goes undefeated Dwyer or Nesbitt could win the Heisman.

We have enough TV exposure that some lofty wins over F$U, UNC, and Clem's son could put either of those in the National spotlight.

Without an undefeated season I think that a GT player has 0% of winning heisman. The media would find some other player from a media friendly town.

what are our chances of going undefeated (through ACC championship that is when votes go out)?

5-10%

right now it appears we will not be more than 7pt dogs in any game and if we can avoid KEY injuries and have BOTH lines play well then we could win them all
 
When is the last time a player won from a media friendly town?

Atlanta is one of the most media friendly towns. Hell, CNN is here.

The main issue is that he's not going to outshine Tebow, Bradford, and McCoy.
 
law_bee said:
http://www.ajc.com/gatech/content/sports/gatech/index.html?cxntlid=nav_sprts_tch


the reality is IF GT goes undefeated Dwyer or Nesbitt could win the Heisman.

We have enough TV exposure that some lofty wins over F$U, UNC, and Clem's son could put either of those in the National spotlight.

Without an undefeated season I think that a GT player has 0% of winning heisman. The media would find some other player from a media friendly town.

what are our chances of going undefeated (through ACC championship that is when votes go out)?

5-10%

right now it appears we will not be more than 7pt dogs in any game and if we can avoid KEY injuries and have BOTH lines play well then we could win them all
Click to expand...

OK, you asked....

Opponent (win probability)
JSU (90%)
Clemson (60%)
Miami (55%)
UNC (50%)
MSU (75%)
FSU (50%)
VT (40%)
UVA (55%)
Vandy (65%)
WFU (60%)
Duke (75%)
UGAG (50%)

Formula edited for correctness:
(.9)(.75^2)(.65)(.6^2)(.55^2)(.5^3)(.4)=
(.9)(.56)(.65)(.36)(.30)(.125)(.4) = .002 = .2%

IOW, not very likely, just through the regular season.
 
Last edited:
I meant media friendly conferences...SEC, Big Ten, Pac 10

If any player in those conferences has close #'s then GT will lose out. AuC will tank a GT candidate for heisman. The fact they are ugag's home paper always puts GT in a non media friendly environment.
 
stinger78 said:
OK, you asked....

Opponent (win probability)
JSU (90%)
Clemson (60%)
Miami (55%)
UNC (50%)
MSU (75%)
FSU (50%)
VT (40%)
UVA (55%)
Vandy (65%)
WFU (60%)
Duke (75%)
UGAG (50%)

(.9)(2*.75)(.65)(2*.6)(2*.55)(3*.5)(.4)= .002 = .2%

IOW, not very likely, just through the regular season.
Click to expand...

your #'s are WAY OFF....are you saying that if we are 11-0 going into ugag we have a 50% chance of winning that game?

are 10-0 going against Dook and we only have 75% chance?

The fact that we are estimating the probability of going undefeated the %'s (which seem wrong on their face anyway) have to be adjusted b/c with each win the % probably goes up b/c it demonstrates strength by GT IMO
 
Just like the Gailey years, you can always count on lawbee to count our chickens before they hatch.
 
law_bee said:
your #'s are WAY OFF....are you saying that if we are 11-0 going into ugag we have a 50% chance of winning that game?

are 10-0 going against Dook and we only have 75% chance?

The fact that we are estimating the probability of going undefeated the %'s (which seem wrong on their face anyway) have to be adjusted b/c with each win the % probably goes up b/c it demonstrates strength by GT IMO
Click to expand...

Agree. There is no easy way to compete the probability of winning x games, because like you said these probabilities aren't totally independent. Going on either a winning or losing streak weights heavily on the chances of winning or losing the next game(s).
 
law_bee said:
I meant media friendly conferences...SEC, Big Ten, Pac 10

If any player in those conferences has close #'s then GT will lose out. AuC will tank a GT candidate for heisman. The fact they are ugag's home paper always puts GT in a non media friendly environment.
Click to expand...

We could ask Joe Hamilton, who dominated his year.
 
law_bee said:
your #'s are WAY OFF
Click to expand...

Says who? Put yours up there.

Hint: It really doesn't matter that much at all on the bottom line. Giving us a 70% chance of winning every game yields a 1.4% chance of winning all of them. So being "way off" isn't the case, and the chances of going undefeated are slim to none.

Now this is considering all games are independent. If you assert that since we may be 11-0 when we encounter UGAG that momentum would raise our odds of winning the game, that may be the case. But what multiplier are you going to assign to momentum? It gets pretty arbitrary at this point.
 
if we go 7-0 there is probably a +66% chance we will go undefeated.

There is a 99% chance we beat jax state and in fact if we lost that game (given all that PJ has accomplished) it would be one of the worst losses in the history of GT (up there with Furman).

I stand by my 5-10% but that number goes up after every win. Looking at our schedule the % creeps up until F$U then jumps above 50% and then another jump after a VT win.

In fact it would not be unreasonable to believe THAT IF WE ARE 7-0 then we could have double digit wins all the way to the ACCCG.

we are front loaded on this years schedule and we will find out early where we stack up
 
law_bee said:
if we go 7-0 there is probably a +66% chance we will go undefeated.

There is a 99% chance we beat jax state and in fact if we lost that game (given all that PJ has accomplished) it would be one of the worst losses in the history of GT (up there with Furman).

I stand by my 5-10% but that number goes up after every win. Looking at our schedule the % creeps up until F$U then jumps above 50% and then another jump after a VT win.

In fact it would not be unreasonable to believe THAT IF WE ARE 7-0 then we could have double digit wins all the way to the ACCCG.

we are front loaded on this years schedule and we will find out early where we stack up
Click to expand...

Lawbee, come on. You cannot rate the UGAG game as anything but a toss-up today. That's a 50% probability, and means that even if the rest were 100% that multiplying that product by .5 will leave you with only 50% chance.

Just for discussion sake, no way JSU is a 99% probability. That's saying we play them 100 times, we win 99. We almost lost to GW last year and JSU is a far better team. We would screw up, get someone key hurt, just play flat whatever in at least 10 of 100 games. 90% is closer to right on this one lawbee, but we're each entitled to our opinions.

I'm also not as confident that your momentum factor is accurate as well. You also have to factor in "the collar" effect as the pressure of an undefeated season looms, flat games after big wins, as well as the effect on the other team to knock off the unbeaten team. It enhances your chance a bit, but not a significant amount, IMO, mayyybe 5%. There are many other factors that effect GA Tech specifically, such as wear and tear over a season due to our habitual lack of depth. I just think the momentum factor is over rated.
 
law_bee said:
your #'s are WAY OFF....are you saying that if we are 11-0 going into ugag we have a 50% chance of winning that game?

are 10-0 going against Dook and we only have 75% chance?

The fact that we are estimating the probability of going undefeated the %'s (which seem wrong on their face anyway) have to be adjusted b/c with each win the % probably goes up b/c it demonstrates strength by GT IMO
Click to expand...

No he's not, at least not his methodology (I haven't thought about his individual game probabilities). He's calculating the probability of going undefeated as of now. Conditional probabilities based on things happening through some point in time in the future don't have anything to do with the probability now. Right now the UGAG game is 50-50 (seems reasonable). The right now probability is the only one that matters in calc of the probability of going undefeated (as of now).
 
stinger78 said:
Lawbee, come on. You cannot rate the UGAG game as anything but a toss-up today. That's a 50% probability, and means that even if the rest were 100% that multiplying that product by .5 will leave you with only 50% chance.

Just for discussion sake, no way JSU is a 99% probability. That's saying we play them 100 times, we win 99. We almost lost to GW last year and JSU is a far better team. We would screw up, get someone key hurt, just play flat whatever in at least 10 of 100 games. 90% is closer to right on this one lawbee, but we're each entitled to our opinions.

I'm also not as confident that your momentum factor is accurate as well. You also have to factor in "the collar" effect as the pressure of an undefeated season looms, flat games after big wins, as well as the effect on the other team to knock off the unbeaten team. It enhances your chance a bit, but not a significant amount, IMO, mayyybe 5%. There are many other factors that effect GA Tech specifically, such as wear and tear over a season due to our habitual lack of depth. I just think the momentum factor is over rated.
Click to expand...

Sure we might have a 10% chance of almost losing to Jax State. That isn't the same as a 10% chance of actually losing. If the schedule was 12 Jax States would you really only think we had a 28% chance of going undefeated?

In the history of the top 25 poll exactly how many times has a 1AA team beat the 1A team? (We are top 25) And that was the best 1AA team. Jax is good but they are no App State.

And I think we are better than 75% vs Duke, but that's just nit picking.
 
stinger78 said:
OK, you asked....

Opponent (win probability)
JSU (90%)
Clemson (60%)
Miami (55%)
UNC (50%)
MSU (75%)
FSU (50%)
VT (40%)
UVA (55%)
Vandy (65%)
WFU (60%)
Duke (75%)
UGAG (50%)

(.9)(2*.75)(.65)(2*.6)(2*.55)(3*.5)(.4)= .002 = .2%

IOW, not very likely, just through the regular season.
Click to expand...

Uh, shouldn't that be .75^2, etc.?
 
GTCrew said:
Sure we might have a 10% chance of almost losing to Jax State. That isn't the same as a 10% chance of actually losing. If the schedule was 12 Jax States would you really only think we had a 28% chance of going undefeated?

In the history of the top 25 poll exactly how many times has a 1AA team beat the 1A team? (We are top 25) And that was the best 1AA team. Jax is good but they are no App State.

And I think we are better than 75% vs Duke, but that's just nit picking.
Click to expand...

You may be right, but adjusting those two games to 99% and 80% won't change the outcome much at all.
 
refrigeratormover said:
Why do you nerds (LMAO/JK) make this so hard. Doesn't vegas do this for us?
Click to expand...

Vegas rips you off on futures bets. Their purpose is to make money and set lines so that they make a profit, not to determine the actual likelihood of something happening.
 
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