Dwyer's Heisman Chances

GTKyle

GTKyle

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What legitimate shot does he have?

What kind of numbers does he need and what kind of season does Tech need?
 
2200 Yards rushing should lock it up... and that is very possible. GT needs to win at worst all but two.

This is all my opinion though, and both are very possible.

EDIT: Touchdowns is all that is going to matter in this I think due to this guy from UCF in 2007
Kevin Smith
Rushes yards TD's
450 2,567 29
 
130+ ypg avg and 2 touchdowns/game and lead the nation in 20+ yard carries. He'll also need 500+ yds receiving to have a chance. GT MUST WIN BIG with 5-7 blowout victories.
 
I dunno... He definitely has Heisman talent, but "the system" is going to work against him in two ways. First, and probably the biggest factor, is that touches will be spread across a lot of good talent. Our offense will be better off as a result, however JD's stat line will suffer too. Should JD still excel given this hindrance, and given that the Heisman vote is more of a popularity contest, I'm sure his detractors will say his numbers are because of the 3O and not his skill.

Regardless, GT needs to win for him to be even mentioned.
 
He has no chance unless we go to the BCS title game. None. People will say he is a system running back in a gimmick offense designed to inflate rushing numbers. If we go to the BCS title game though, it's a lot tougher to discredit him, because the "system" obviously works, and he's obviously a big part of it.
 
No chance unless we win every game. Face it, teams like Florida, Texas, USC, OU, etc. can get away with losing one or two games per season, but with our reputation, we can't lose one. The bias against the ACC will not be going away any time soon. Plus, the thing is, for us to be able to win every game, Dwyer probably isn't going to be to outshine everyone else in the back field. Well, he will, but he'll need to share the shine. It's not going to be easy, but who knows.
 
gth816f said:
He has no chance unless we go to the BCS title game. None. People will say he is a system running back in a gimmick offense designed to inflate rushing numbers. If we go to the BCS title game though, it's a lot tougher to discredit him, because the "system" obviously works, and he's obviously a big part of it.
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That might be overly pessimistic. We need to do well enough to get some national coverage in big games and probably a top 10 final ranking. Dwyer has the speed and power to put together an amazing highlight film by the end of the season. We all know how impressive he can be. The bigger issues are injuries, number of carries, and team performance. Unfortunately, there are a lot of things beyond his control and good luck has something to do with it.
 
IMO, the toughest thing, and the thing that he needs the most, is for Gameday to come to at least one (probably 2) Tech games. That is not going to happen. The only chances we would realistically have are VT, F$U, and georgie. There are big games involving preseason favorites on every one of those dates.

The Thursday night games are good, but not like the Gameday games.
 
Dwyer would have to have a huge year. He would have to blow everyone way in ypc.

AND

We would have to win the ACC. I think we could only have 1 loss as a team. And Dwyer would still have to perform well in that loss.

AND

Tebow would have to have a below average year. With UF lossing 3 times. If Tebow even gets his average numbers, he will be hard to beat.

AND

McCoy and Bradford would also have to have worse years than last year.

So, unless the Big 12 actually fields a defense this year, JD will have to settle for beating UGa and winning the ACC.
 
My opinion is that Jon is going to have to be an absolute stud. It's hard for me to imagine the media ever giving anyone more attention than they do for the second coming known as Tim Tebow (albeit not fair to hate him because of espn and their insane bias). I think Dwyer has a unique chance to stand out as a running back this year. One obstacle I see for Dwyer's chance at the heisman is versatility. Voters tend be attracted to CJ Spiller type running backs that can also be dangerous on special teams. It's also clear that he will have to prove himself to those that will say he is a product of the system (see Graham Harrell).

Only 1 player since 1999 has won the Heisman at any position but Quarterback. Furthermore, no player from an ACC school not named Florida State has ever won the Heisman trophy.

My point is...Jon faces a number of obstacles. He has one of the most biased media scenes in sports to overcome, an uneducated assumption about players in our offense, and some of the most intimidating defenses in the country. It will be tough for him and he will have to perform every week. We will have to win the ACC and win games on the biggest stage. And he will need to have a marquee moment to outline his heisman campaign. I for one wouldn't mind that moment coming against Virginia Tech. Just me.
 
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jacket67 said:
That might be overly pessimistic. We need to do well enough to get some national coverage in big games and probably a top 10 final ranking. Dwyer has the speed and power to put together an amazing highlight film by the end of the season. We all know how impressive he can be. The bigger issues are injuries, number of carries, and team performance. Unfortunately, there are a lot of things beyond his control and good luck has something to do with it.
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The Heisman is just a popularity contest, it has little to do with actual measure of ability(beyond that you have to be very good.) Dwyer is great, but he is not leaps and bounds above the other top players in the nation. Pretty much everyone outside of Tech thinks that we have a high school offense that doesn't have too much chance of succeeding on the highest level. So until we do that, I don't think anyone on our team has much of a chance at the Heisman. Think a Colt Brennan situation.

I'd say I hope to be wrong, but I really don't. Rather, I hope that we go to the BCS title game so it's a moot point :).
 
You know I was just lamenting that with the severe paper shrinkage going on, that if you are not one of the top teams, you just don't get the coverage you used to.

Certainly, there are plenty of e-ways to get coverage, but if you want to stand out today, you absolutely must be on a Top Ten team. We aren't and until we are, Dwyer won't get noticed.

Now, we do have quite an opportunity (since it really is a team award) to win against tough teams early and often. We could jump into the Top Ten quickly and Dwyer would be put on the map.

Anything after that is not only gravy, but luck.
 
The Heisman is based on the same thing the BCS is based on: Media Coverage. JD therefore doesn't have much of a chance. He'll get some love, but not the love that Tebow, McCoy and Bradford will get.

I quit caring about the Heisman about 15 years ago. I'd love to see JD get it, but I'd be shocked if he did.
 
I remember Calvin having some momentum build behind him until the Clemson fiasco, and he had far more to overcome than Dwyer. If Tech goes 11-1 and Dwyer averages 130+ yards a game, I see no reason he wouldn't get serious coverage. While paper coverage has gone down, college football is much more heavily covered on TV than ever before, and TV coverage is what will matter.

But I see chances of winning as little-to-none. Tebow and McCoy alone will be nearly insurmountable. It will take a lot of luck along with Tech's best year since at least 1990, but I will be still ecstatic even if Dwyer only becomes a finalist.
 
floridajacket said:
But I see chances of winning as little-to-none. Tebow and McCoy alone will be nearly insurmountable. It will take a lot of luck along with Tech's best year since at least 1990, but I will be still ecstatic even if Dwyer only becomes a finalist.
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I agree, it would take a losing season to knock the 3 finalists from last year off the top their hype is that strong. I think that if Dwyer gets in the top 10 with the votes (if they vote that far down, not sure of the process) then that would show some fair respect.
 
I love him, but he has no chance this year. He could get the ball 25 times/game and put up 2000 yards and he still wouldn't get it. The machine that is Tebow/Bradford/McCoy is simply too powerful. All those teams will compete for #1 at some point. Like it or not, JD's skill will get downplayed as having benefited from a confused defense.
 
He's going to have more help, so I don't really see his numbers going up this year. If he improves, that'll balance out the help he's going to have so it'll probably be a wash. That, combined with the media love-fest for Tebow the Second Coming of Christ will just be impossible.
 
Little Joe finished well in the voting. It would not be impossible. Here is what must happen:
1. Rush for 200+ yards or very close to it, score
2 or 3 TD's in big win over Clemson on ESPN.
This will get him momentum early.
2. Have 2 good games and one great game on ABC
telecasts against UNC, FSU, and Va Tech
3. Lead nation in rushing, or be very close to lead
4. Team wins 10 games or more
5. Rushes for 200+ and 2 or 3 TD's in win over UGA
6. Tebow loses a game with a bad performance
It coud happen!
 
I was going to suggest #1 and 3. Big games during the Miami and Clempson games, and we have to get gameday or a primetime game (s) in which he just goes all out. (Luckily, the chances for us getting UNC doesn't look too bad...I'll say it again F U UT-OU)

but I have to say, the chances are less than 5%. Remember- Jahvid Best is the national favorite at Running Back this year. (and I played against this guy in HS, he deserves the pub and he's an all out beast, but we shut him down.)

anyways, as much as I'd love JD to win it, I know people out here in Cali who don't even think he's the best RB in the ACC- but they're coming around. and they sure as hell don't think he's the best RB in the country. so idk, but our man might just have to settle with the chase of the Orange Bowl.
 
GTJacket567 said:
I was going to suggest #1 and 3. Big games during the Miami and Clempson games, and we have to get gameday or a primetime game (s) in which he just goes all out. (Luckily, the chances for us getting UNC doesn't look too bad...I'll say it again F U UT-OU)

but I have to say, the chances are less than 5%. Remember- Jahvid Best is the national favorite at Running Back this year. (and I played against this guy in HS, he deserves the pub and he's an all out beast, but we shut him down.)

anyways, as much as I'd love JD to win it, I know people out here in Cali who don't even think he's the best RB in the ACC- but they're coming around. and they sure as hell don't think he's the best RB in the country. so idk, but our man might just have to settle with the chase of the Orange Bowl.
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Of course they don't think he's the best in the country, they think Javid Best is. But he's only know for the last couple games of the season. Last two games he supposedly dominated teams, but they were the bowl-less Stanford and the WINLESS Washington. Then he ran over Miami but Dwyer proved that wasn't something special now didn't he?
 
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