FYI - Prediction Scoring

gtfan

Sith Lord
Staff member
Joined
Oct 15, 2001
Messages
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If you understand the scoring of the prediction program then you DO NOT need to read this.

Based on the feedback poll there are some out there who want more info.

This explanation assumes that you have READ the instructions at the "Game Prediction" section.

To participate in the program all you HAVE to do is guess the final score. That is the basic premise of the program.

The interesting part is the SCORING.

Stingtalk will give you 1 pt for picking the winner correctly and 2 pts for accurately picking the spread.

When Beestorm and I agreed to start Stingtalk I felt that an interactive game would enhance the site. I had looked at a few. Goldtimer ran a statistical program that, I think, was based on picking the final score. FSU's site, the Territory, ran one based on also picking the correct score.

While mulling over the possibilities it occurred to me that we should incorporate the "betting line" into a program. Thousands of people go online everyday to bet on college football during the season.


When you go to Vegas, online, or your local bookie you are dealing with entities that want to make money. They have ways to ensure this and that is through skewing the odds in their favor.

In BlackJack it is the "nothing beats a dealer black jack"
In roulette it is those green numbers
In Football it is the point spread

The point spread - also called "the line" or "the spread" - is used as a margin to handicap the favorite team. For betting purposes, the oddsmaker predicts that the favored team will win by a certain number of points. This number of points is the point spread. The favorite is always indicated by a minus sign (e.g. -5.5) and the underdog by a plus sign (e.g.+5.5).

The purpose of the point spread is so that the casinos can manipulate the betting, i.e. raise the spread more people bet on the underdog or lower the spread more people bet on the favorite. (It is also to insure there is a 50/50 split in the betting)

Like I said in my prediction instructions if you ask someone to bet that Duke will beat FSU they will never take that bet. However if you give Duke 55 pts (meaning FSU has to win by 55pts or more) then many will take that bet.


By including the line into the program it means that roughly 50 percent will get 2pts and 50 percent will not get 2pts. Anytime you do a competition I think the goal is a "bell curve." If you look at the first weeks results that is exactly what you see. There were 2 people at the top and 3 people at the bottom and the majority in the middle.

My "bell curve" should be skewed to the higher number over time, because I give you 1 pt for picking the winner of the game. This is a gimme point for many college games. Then I give you 2 pts for accurately picking the spread.

I hoped I have cleared this up somewhat for those people who still had questions.

This post is a suplement to the Prediction Instructions posted in that section.

If you still have questions PLEASE email me at gtfan@stingtalk.com. I will do my best to answer them.
 
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