Going Bowling with 5 wins

mookie43

mookie43

Helluva Engineer
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NCAA allows it if not enough 6 win teams qualify for bowls.

There are 42 bowls - 84 teams

There are 75 teams already at 6 wins or more.
2 teams with a 5-6 record play each other.....meaning one will qualify.

That leaves 8 slots open and we have 5 teams which will qualify ahead of us already due to APR if all other teams lose.

There are 16 teams at 5 wins (us included)
By my count we are number 6 on the APR list of those teams.

Rice APR 994----- plays North Texas a 6-5 team
Auburn APR 983 ----plays Alabama likely loss
Missouri APR 983 -----plays Arkansas tough game
Mich St APR 983 ----- plays Penn State....likely loss
Miami APR 982 ------ plays Pittsburgh....tough game
GT APR 979 --------- plays mutts.....enough said

TLDR.....not looking good for us unless we win.
 
Repost

Coaching Search Update

Agree, taking this team to a bowl game would have been a strong argument. big difference between 5 and 6 wins Can still make a bowl if there are slots left. We’re locked in for pretty high dibs now at least
stingtalk.com stingtalk.com
 
mookie43 said:
Damn all that work for nothing......thanks for pointing it out. missed it
Click to expand...
It’s fine. Can use its own thread


So eight spots left since two 5-6 teams are playing each other, as you said. If we assume that there won’t be enough outright wins and the five teams above us get spots before us win or lose, that leaves three spots left for us and the other eight teams. So throwing out the Ball State/Miami (OH) matchups in the link above and assuming a loss in COFH, only 2/8 teams below us can win for us to make a bowl.

Assuming Tenn takes care of Vandy that’s 2/7 we have to worry about. Just casually glancing at the rest, there are some concerning teams on there such as UL, UAB
 
Going by matchups of the teams below us on OddsShark,

Tenn predicted to win against Vandy
Kent State predicted to win against Buffalo
Louisiana predicted to win against Texas State (-1 spot)
App State predicted to win against GA Southern
WKU predicted to win against FAU
UAB predicted to win against LaTech (-1 spot)
Southern Miss predicted to win against ULM (-1 spot)
UTSA predicted to win against UTEP

At least this gives me interest in watching these games.
 
mookie43 said:
NCAA allows it if not enough 6 win teams qualify for bowls.

There are 42 bowls - 84 teams

There are 75 teams already at 6 wins or more.
2 teams with a 5-6 record play each other.....meaning one will qualify.

That leaves 8 slots open and we have 5 teams which will qualify ahead of us already due to APR if all other teams lose.

There are 16 teams at 5 wins (us included)
By my count we are number 6 on the APR list of those teams.

Rice APR 994----- plays North Texas a 6-5 team
Auburn APR 983 ----plays Alabama likely loss
Missouri APR 983 -----plays Arkansas tough game
Mich St APR 983 ----- plays Penn State....likely loss
Miami APR 982 ------ plays Pittsburgh....tough game
GT APR 979 --------- plays mutts.....enough said

TLDR.....not looking good for us unless we win.
Click to expand...
Is anyone who has qualified or may qualify on a bowl ban?
 
mookie43 said:
NCAA allows it if not enough 6 win teams qualify for bowls.

There are 42 bowls - 84 teams

There are 75 teams already at 6 wins or more.
2 teams with a 5-6 record play each other.....meaning one will qualify.

That leaves 8 slots open and we have 5 teams which will qualify ahead of us already due to APR if all other teams lose.

There are 16 teams at 5 wins (us included)
By my count we are number 6 on the APR list of those teams.

Rice APR 994----- plays North Texas a 6-5 team
Auburn APR 983 ----plays Alabama likely loss
Missouri APR 983 -----plays Arkansas tough game
Mich St APR 983 ----- plays Penn State....likely loss
Miami APR 982 ------ plays Pittsburgh....tough game
GT APR 979 --------- plays mutts.....enough said

TLDR.....not looking good for us unless we win.
Click to expand...

If Auburn, Missouri & Miami are ahead of Tech in APR, then we have a much bigger problem.
 
Apparently there are some four win teams that can get to 5+ wins and have higher APR than us. Assuming they’re eligible, it seems like our chances of getting a bowl with five wins is pretty slim
 
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