Why Georgia Tech can still contend
KC Joyner
ESPN Insider | March 16, 2015
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets racked up a number of impressive achievements last season. They won 11 games (tied for second most in school history), won the ACC Coastal division, beat the Georgia Bulldogs for the first time since 2008, notched a win over Clemson, went toe-to-toe with Florida State in the ACC championship game and registered an Orange Bowl victory against a team from the powerful SEC West (Mississippi State).
Repeating those feats might seem like a very difficult task given that the Yellow Jackets are the only Power 5 team to lose all of its starters at running back, wide receiver and tight end and will have to overcome a schedule that is arguably one of the most difficult in college football. But the reality of the situation is Georgia Tech is very well-situated to repeat as the ACC Coastal division champion and take another shot at winning the conference title they came so close to winning last season.
(Note: Unless otherwise specified, all of the statistics listed below were in games against Power 5 teams.)
Have arguably the best quarterback in the ACC
Georgia Tech's Paul Johnson and Justin Thomas
Michael Shroyer/Getty Images
Justin Thomas runs Paul Johnson's option attack efficiently and returns most of his offensive line.
Justin Thomas could arguably be the best quarterback in the ACC, which is saying something given that 2015 could be the year of the quarterback in this conference. Thomas led ACC passers in Total QBR over the second half of the season and ranked fifth nationally in Total QBR against Power 5 teams over the course of the entire 2014 campaign (83.0).
These impressive numbers are not just a matter of Thomas being productive on the ground, as he ranked seventh nationally in Total QBR on passing plays (78.1). Teams that try to add defenders to the tackle box in an effort to slow Thomas' ground gains do so at their own risk.
Plug-and-play rushing attack
The Yellow Jackets rely on their ground game maybe more than any team in college football, so losing seven of their top nine leading rushers at running back would seem to be quite daunting, especially since one of the two returning backs, Broderick Snoddy, is attempting a comeback after suffering a nasty leg injury last season.
The good news is those personnel losses may not be anywhere near as impactful given how adept this team's blocking wall was at operating coach Paul Johnson's option attack.
Last year the Yellow Jackets ranked first among Power 5 teams in percentage of rushing attempts that gained zero or negative yards (13.8 percent). Georgia Tech also led the nation in percentage of rushing plays that gained 5 or more yards (47.1 percent) and in number of rushes of 10 or more yards (118).
These stats show that even though opponents were aware that the Yellow Jackets were going to run the ball, they were not able to stop it. That is a sure sign that a group of blockers is performing well and is a very good omen considering that Georgia Tech is returning four starters on the offensive line, a total that is tied for first in the ACC.
Another positive sign in this area is redshirt freshman running back C.J. Leggett. He was a highly recruited back in 2014 and his scouting report notes that Leggett "really excels as an inside zone runner" and "runs with a decisive style that should allow for continued production at the next level."
Defense could be much improved
Georgia Tech's season-ending defensive statistics left a lot to be desired, as the club ranked in the bottom three of the ACC in Total QBR, yards per game, yards per play, yards per rush, passing yards per game, passing yards per attempt, sacks, first downs per game and third down conversion rate.
As bad as those figures were, they actually don't represent how well this defense was playing in the latter stages of the season. From November through the end of the 2014 campaign, Georgia Tech ranked 14th among Power 5 teams in Total QBR (31.7), 21st in rushing yards allowed per game (138.8), fourth in interceptions (9) and 11th in points allowed per game (22.3).
Those numbers make the return of eight defensive starters, a total tied for the most in the ACC, a very positive aspect, especially considering the number of impact defenders who are among that group.
Cornerback D.J. White had six pass breakups and three interceptions in the latter half of the season and had the most passes defensed among ACC defensive backs in that time frame. White had four picks over the course of the season, a total that tied for second in the ACC and was matched by fellow Yellow Jackets defensive back Jamal Golden.
Golden was also a playmaker in the area of forced fumbles, as he and linebacker Paul Davis both ranked in the top 10 in the ACC in that category by stripping the ball away from ball carriers on three occasions.
An up-and-coming star is defensive end KeShun Freeman, who led all ACC freshmen in tackles for loss last season (9.5). Freeman also blocked two kicks and helped Georgia Tech post six blocked kicks for the season, a mark that ranked first in the conference and tied for first nationally.
One potentially under-the-radar name to keep an eye on here would be Jabari Hunt-Days. He missed the 2014 season due to an academic issue but had seven stops behind the line of scrimmage in 2013 and was on several freshman All-America teams in 2012. If Hunt-Days is able to get back to form, the combination of him, Freeman, Davis and defensive lineman Adam Gotsis could give the Yellow Jackets one of the stronger pass rush units in the conference.
Superb track record of developing talent
Another reason to think this team can overcome personnel losses is Johnson's outstanding record at developing talent. This shows up in a recent study that reviewed how teams perform as compared to their recruiting levels. The Yellow Jackets ranked first in 2014 in this study and ranked fifth nationally in that metric over the past decade. Add this to the fact that Georgia Tech just had arguably the best recruiting class the Yellow Jackets have signed under Johnson's direction, and there should be more than a few players who can come in and make an immediate contribution.
Bottom line
Georgia Tech landed spots in Mark Schlabach's Way-Too-Early-Top 25 and in the top 25 of ESPN Stats & Information's Preseason FPI rankings. The confluence of factors noted above indicate those rankings may only be the beginning of a second consecutive season of notable achievements for the Yellow Jackets program.