Official GT @ Wake Thread; 8pm Friday ACC Network

Beeski

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Couple of thoughts a day in advance:
1) Wake really sux. 6-14, 3-14 in conference, six straight losses

2) Should Alvarado sit the entire game to get his hamstring healthy for the ACC Tournament / NCAA Tournament?
Risk = we go from an 82.8% probability of winning (according to ESPN this morning) to a 75%?
Pro = Sturdivant gets some serious minutes, hopefully Rodney Howard does too
 

bonham

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2) Should Alvarado sit the entire game to get his hamstring healthy for the ACC Tournament / NCAA Tournament?
Risk = we go from an 82.8% probability of winning (according to ESPN this morning) to a 75%?
Pro = Sturdivant gets some serious minutes, hopefully Rodney Howard does too
If we win the Wake game, we are a lock for the Big Dance regardless of what happens in the ACC tournament. So we need Alvarado. We should win, but anything can happen in an ACC road game

If we lose at Wake, it will give everyone a chance to put us right back in the outside looking in.
 
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No way dude, we need one more win to make the Tournament for the first time in over a decade. Basketball can be a fluky sport and Wake is at home.
 

Graybeard Jacket

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Even if he is diminished physically, just his presence on the floor is important to the mentality of the team. And with the possibility of getting the double bye, this is a huge game.
 

00Burdell

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A loss would be beyond catastrophic. You don't sit starters unless you already have the goal locked in (like an NFL team with a guaranteed home field advantage in the playoffs or similar).

We can sit people when we are up by 50 with three minutes left.
 

jts1207

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From Wake board:

KP Report - Regular Season Finale - FRIDAY GT at WF 8 pm ACCN
The Deacs last regular season game will be played tomorrow (FRIDAY) as WF hosts surging GT as the Jackets bookend WF's ACC regular season. Here is a take on Josh Pastner's Rambling Wreck squad:

This season: The Jackets started the season with back to back home losses to GA State (#148) and Mercer (#147), and GT's and Josh Pastner's prospects looked grim for the 2020-21 season. Despite the horrendable start, GT has turned it around improving from a season's worst #90 KP rating on November 27 to a season's best #30 after Tuesday's win over Duke in OT. Right now, GT finds itself 14-8 overall (10-6 in the ACC) and looks to be safely in the NCAAs (generally considered a #10 or #11 seed; fwiw, this is the type of team - veteran team; everyone knows their roles; have played lots of close game against top teams - that traditionally pulls a couple of NCAA upsets). As GT heads into the Joel, they have won 5 straight games (Pitt, @ Miami, @VT, Cuse and Duke). As long as the Jackets don't trip up against WF and then lose to open the ACC Tournament, GT should secure its first NCAA bid since 2010 (that GT team featured Brian Oliver, Iman Shumpert, Derrick Favors and Glen Rice Jr.).

The lineup:

The Jackets play a veteran lineup (#4 in the NCAA in experience) and generally use only 6 players (#339 in bench minutes). The starters:

6-0 Sr. Jose Alvarado - This will be Alvardo's 100th start for the Jackets; leads in assists, steals, FT% 88%, 4!% from 3, very steady
6-5 Jr. Michael Devoe - Solid player, but has not been as good as he was in 2020; almost declared for the NBA draft last year; 38% from 3 (5 for his last 23); 2nd leading rebounder
6-7 Jr. Khalid Moore - Not a scorer; 24% from 3; hasn't scored in double figures in an ACC game;
6-7 Sr. Jordan Usher - USC transfer; in the recent win over Cuse: 19 points, 7 boards, 6 assists; 31% from 3;
6-9 Sr. Moses Wright - has become an elite big man; leading scorer and rebounder; has been unstoppable lately: averaging 25 ppg and 14 rpg over the current 5 game winning streak; my ACC POY

Off the bench:

5-10 Sr. Bubba Parham - VMI transfer; slumping lately: 9 total points over the last 4 games; 34% from 3; doesn't turn the ball over;
6-2 So. Kyle Sturdivant - USC transfer; nothing burger: played in every ACC game, but his conference high game came against... yes, WF with 7

The analytics: #6 in the ACC in offense and defense. Their strength is shooting as the Jackets are #3 in the ACC in effective FG% (55%) and #2 in the ACC in 2 point FG% ; GT also doesn't turn the ball over much (16% TO%: #4). GT doesn't hit the offensive glass (#13 in O rebound %), and they don't get to the line often. Defensively, GT plays a funky zone which forces a TOs (#1 in the ACC in defensive TOs forced; #1 in the ACC in steals). When teams avoid TOs, GT isn't great at defending the paint (#10 in 2 PT defense; #12 at preventing offensive rebounds); their defense forces teams to play slow as the #4 in the ACC in longest defensive possessions. GT likes to keep games in the half-court, #10 in tempo in ACC games averaging 66.8 possessions per game. Foul trouble is the Jackets' Achilles Heal as they have no legit options off the bench.

The bottom line: KP projects a 74-64 GT win in 67 possessions. FWIW, this is a TERRIBLE scheduling spot for GT. The Jackets are coming off a senior night OT win over Duke, and GT under Pastner has always been the kind of team to play up to or down to their competition (see the losses to Mercer and GA State; close wins over Florida A&M and Pitt). Plus, GT already coasted by WF in January. Don't expect an A effort from GT. That said, this is an awful "on the court" matchup for WF. Moses Wright has been killing ACC teams with legit inside size and strength, and now he faces a WF team that is 13th in the ACC in two point defense, and with Forbes limiting Okpomo's minutes and with Ody foul trouble an inevitability, at some point WF will be forced to have Mucius and/or Massoud attempt to keep Wright away from the basket... YIKES. Also, while GT is the best in the ACC at forcing TOs, WF is next last in the ACC in giving up TOs (although WF has improved in that area). The point guard matchup tells you all you need to know about the two teams. The ageless Jose Alvarado against high schooler Carter Whitt, who should be planning his HS beach week. Different worlds. If the line gets to 11, I will take WF because GT is they type of team to sleepwalk through most of the game, but WF just lost to a Pitt team by 13 with Justin Champagnie and a handful of low-level ACC bench-warmers; so, passing on the game is the best advice.
 

GCdaJuiceMan

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This is the Moses Wright ACCPOY Game. Big man going to have his hands on the ball nearly every possession with how weak WF is inside.
 

1990wspjacket

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Couple of thoughts a day in advance:
1) Wake really sux. 6-14, 3-14 in conference, six straight losses

2) Should Alvarado sit the entire game to get his hamstring healthy for the ACC Tournament / NCAA Tournament?
Risk = we go from an 82.8% probability of winning (according to ESPN this morning) to a 75%?
Pro = Sturdivant gets some serious minutes, hopefully Rodney Howard does too
That Def couldn't hurt. Maybe let him sit 1st half and see what the score is to determine if he's needed for the second half ? Still unsure of the 1st half against Dook though. It appeared to me that Pastners strategy was telling the boys not to foul and send Dook to the line to keep our starters in the game as long as possible.
 

GTCrew4b

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I won’t watch or listen to this game. There is nothing to be gained.
 

jts1207

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Thank you for posting. But That guy is even more down on Wake than you are on Tech.

I'm not down on Tech. I don't like Pastner. For whatever reason a few fans here bacme overly triggered when I simply stated we needed help as well as winning and has become a pissing contest for whatever reason. I was right, they were wrong and proven post after post.


These videos of Pastner screaming in a phone about Wright being a 0 star are dumb.Hes made this point plenty of times. Congratulations on developing a player and move on. Screaming it over and over and over is pointless. He acts like a child.



We are a good team, as we should be with this much experience. We aren't this great juggernaut that's going to shock the world because we finally got seeded by beating Duke. If we had some core pieces coming back next year you could look at this as great learning experience and be back next year better, experienced and stronger.....not the case here which is why I'm not acting like we just won the Super Bowl like the majority here
 

GTCrew4b

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Is there a finish that would satisfy you or are the two early season losses too much for Pastner to overcome?

because coming into this season I think you would’ve taken a 4th place finish in the conference and NCAA tournament bid.
 

bonham

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These videos of Pastner screaming in a phone about Wright being a 0 star are dumb.Hes made this point plenty of times. Congratulations on developing a player and move on. Screaming it over and over and over is pointless. He acts like a child.
We all know who Moses is but the rest of the nation doesn't. He's promoting his player in interviews because, you know, that's what a good coach does... in addition to developing the actual player
 

jts1207

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We all know who Moses is but the rest of the nation doesn't. He's promoting his player in interviews because, you know, that's what a good coach does... in addition to developing the actual player
Then you talk about Moses ....not look at what I did. Maybe he can write Moses was a 0 star on his stupid ass face shield and finally shut up about it
 

bonham

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Then you talk about Moses ....not look at what I did. Maybe he can write Moses was a 0 star on his stupid ass face shield and finally shut up about it
Damn. Did Pastner touch you inappropriately when you two were alone?
 
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