OOC SOS Rankings

[BuzzMD]

CGB blog did a calculation of SOS of different conferences with their out of conference games.

http://www.collegegameballs.com/200...nce-schedule-strength-by-conference-and-team/

The ACC came in last -- we were respectable at 2nd in ACC with a .55.

The out of conference strength for any team is calculated by:
St = (((0.9 * H) + (1.1 * A) + (0.7 * h) + (0.8 * a) -(0.9 * C)) / (H + A + h + a + C))
H = Home games against BCS teams (and Notre Dame)
A = Neutral or Away games against BCS teams (and Notre Dame)
h = Home games against non-BCS teams
a = Away games against non-BCS teams
C = Cupcakes, games against any team that doesn’t fall into one of the above categories ie 1aa teams.

The out of conference strength for any conference is calculated by:
Sc = SUM(St) / COUNT(St)
Again pretty simple math, just take average.
The results (higher indicates stronger out of conference schedule).
Pac 10 Sc = 0.653
Big 12 Sc = 0.564583
Big Ten Sc = 0.4863
Big East Sc = 0.44
SEC Sc = 0.425
ACC Sc = 0.377083

Florida State 0.55
Boston College 0.4
Maryland 0.45
Wake Forest 0.425
Clemson 0.4
North Carolina State 0
Virginia Tech 0.875
Georgia Tech 0.55
North Carolina 0
Miami 0.475
Virginia 0.375
Duke 0.025

 

[beej67]

How does NC State get a zero when they've got Pittsburgh at home?

How does Duke get a 0.025 when they've got Kansas away?

How does Miami get a 0.475 playing Oklahoma and USF when VT gets a .875 playing Bama and Nebraska?


Looks fishy to me.

 

[LowcountryJacket]

Not hard to drop ACC scores when you cancel out a home game against a BCS team with a "cupcake" in your formula.

A little heavy if you asked me.

 

[BuzzMD]

How does NC State get a zero when they've got Pittsburgh at home?.

NC state has 2 home games against BCS and 2 cupcake games (1-AA teams)

How does Duke get a 0.025 when they've got Kansas away?.

Duke has 1 away against BCS, 1 away against non-BCS and then 2 cupcakes again

How does Miami get a 0.475 playing Oklahoma and USF when VT gets a .875 playing Bama and Nebraska?.

Miami -- 1 home BCS, 1 away BCS, 1 away non-BCS, 1 cupcake

VT -- 1 home BCS, 1 away BCS, 1 home nonBCS, 1 away nonBCS, 0 cupcakes

Looks fishy to me.

Guy is actually an ACC homer, and his results surprised him. Scheduling cupcakes according to his formula really hurts you. He set up his formula and then ran the teams, not vice versa -- and was actually surprised with results.

 

[surferdave]

Not hard to drop ACC scores when you cancel out a home game against a BCS team with a "cupcake" in your formula.

A little heavy if you asked me.

Looking over the numbers, its pretty clear that nothing brings down your score on this scale like playing an FCS team (except playing two of them).

I agree that's too tough a penalty, when you get rewarded points for playing really bad non-BCS FBS teams (in many cases, worse teams than the upper third of the FCS teams). Everybody would play Arkansas State or Louisiana-Monroe if they could get them, but the bigger BCS programs who can afford the payout get first shot at them; the rest of us have to settle for playing teams that are probably just as good but compete in the lower division.

 

[BuzzMD]

I agree -- this is not a perfect equation -- but it is interesting evaluation.

 

[GTCrew]

I agree -- this is not a perfect equation -- but it is interesting evaluation.

The .2 difference between BCS home-away and the .1 difference between non-BCS home away makes no sense. non-BCS home are often bringing in chumps who need a paycheck (just like FCS). In general, decent non-BCS teams require an away game.

ACC non-BCS games were 8 home vs 5 away. Big 12 non-BCS were 22-7. SEC was 19-4. Big 10 was 18-2. Pac 10 was 9-2. Big East was 8-6.

The FCS games are ACC at 14, Big 12 at 7, SEC at 10, Big 10 at 9, Pac 10 at 4, and Big East at 11.

It is obvious that the SEC and Big 10 are bringing in invited non-BCS chumps with no return games.

Getting .7 for Sun Belt chumps while Duke loses .9 for FCS champ Richmond is a flaw in the system.

To conclude, everyone agrees BCS is tougher than non-BCS is tougher than FCS. But the scale of .9 vs .7 versus -.9 does not accurately reflect where non-BCS falls versus FCS.

 

[Allen Koholic]

It's an interesting equation, but I think it's horribly flawed. It assumes that a) BCS teams are always of greater caliber then non-BCS teams and b) FCS schools are the antithesis of college football. Point A is wrong when you look at teams like Utah and BYU. Utah is better then most SEC schools, which we all know is the greatest conference in the land. Point B also makes it seem as though scheduling cupcakes gives you a competetive advantage in other OOC games, which is wrong. At most, I think he should have simply dropped the cupcakes from his equation.

There's no way that Wake's schedule is harder then NCState or UNC.

 

[Flywheel]

In general, I give little thought to equations such as these that spit out rankings because the writer can tweak it over and over until it says what he wants it to say. CFN's formulae are usually an exeception because they use the same ones year after year.

 

[Geori]

Completely agree on the flaws. If this determined SoS, then everyone would be scheduling the Dukes and Vandys of the world, when a I-AA "cupcake" like Georgia Southern or App State presents more of a challenge than them.

 

[NatiJacket]

Completely agree on the flaws. If this determined SoS, then everyone would be scheduling the Dukes and Vandys of the world, when a I-AA "cupcake" like Georgia Southern or App State presents more of a challenge than them.

Ask UGA about how much of a cupcake Vandy is. :laugher: