Paul Johnson's Second Seasons at GSU and Navy...

Yellow Fever

Yellow Fever

Jolly Good Fellow
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Dec 6, 2007
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GSU

First Year
Paul Johnson went 10-3 winning the Conference Championship and advancing to the Quarterfinals.
Total points For:423 Points Against:229 (13 Games)
Points Per Game: 32.5


Second Year
went 14-0 winning the conference championship only to get his first defeat of the season in the National Championship finishing 14-1
Total Points For: 654 Against: 363 (15 Games)
Points Per Game: 43.6
34% Increase!


NAVY

First Year
Paul Johnson went 2-10 in his first season. Twice as many wins as Navy had gotten in their last two seasons.
Total Points For: 290 Against: 436 (12 Games)
Points Per Game: 24.17

Second Year
Went 8-5 and to the Houston Bowl (first bowl game since 1996 where Paul Johnson just happend to be the offensive Corrdinator!)
Total Points for: 396 Against:283 (13 Games)
Points Per Game: 30.46
26% Increase!



Georgia Tech

First Year
So Far PJ has went 9-3* Second 8+ win season for Tech in quite a few years. Beat UGA in first try.
Total Points For:314* Against: 226* (12 Games)
Points Per Game: 26.17

So with an average increase of 30% We could somewhat expect to score around 34 Points per game in his second season on paper.
 
Well, I was about to make a new thread for this, but I might as well just start putting stuff here on the improvement over the course of the season

Here's the change in some rushing stats over the course of the year:
improvement.png


CPTD: Carries Per Touchdown
CPF: Carries per Fumble
CPFL: Carries per Fumble Lost
 
Looking at his previous "second seasons" makes me really pumped about next year. I am now starting to expect an ACC championship aka Orange Bowl next year.
 
Continuation of the nerdery:

pjppggraph.JPG


If this trend continues, Tech will be scoring 289.1 ppg in Johnson's 10th season. It could be that there's not enough data for an accurate trend line, but I can still dream.
 
Although we improved in Carries per Fumble and Carries per Fumble lost, we have a long way to go to be as efficient as Navy was under PJ. Check out Navy's stats for PJ's last 4 years there:

2004 = 36.26 CPF / 57.4 CPFL

2005 = 32.00 CPF / 67.2 CPFL

2006 = 22.47 CPF / 40.2 CPFL

2007 = 38.28 CPF / 61.8 CPFL

Now look at our numbers:

2008 = 18.15 CPF / 33.27 CPFL

Just think how many more points we'd score and how many fewer points our opponents would have with Navy-like ball security.
 
JTS said:
Just think how many more points we'd score and how many fewer points our opponents would have with Navy-like ball security.
Click to expand...
It certainly made the difference in all three of our losses. Arguably, we'd be undefeated.
 
Yellow Fever said:
GSU

First Year
Paul Johnson went 10-3 winning the Conference Championship and advancing to the Quarterfinals.
Total points For:423 Points Against:229 (13 Games)
Points Per Game: 32.5


Second Year
went 14-0 winning the conference championship only to get his first defeat of the season in the National Championship finishing 14-1
Total Points For: 654 Against: 363 (15 Games)
Points Per Game: 43.6
34% Increase!


NAVY

First Year
Paul Johnson went 2-10 in his first season. Twice as many wins as Navy had gotten in their last two seasons.
Total Points For: 290 Against: 436 (12 Games)
Points Per Game: 24.17

Second Year
Went 8-5 and to the Houston Bowl (first bowl game since 1996 where Paul Johnson just happend to be the offensive Corrdinator!)
Total Points for: 396 Against:283 (13 Games)
Points Per Game: 30.46
26% Increase!



Georgia Tech

First Year
So Far PJ has went 9-3* Second 8+ win season for Tech in quite a few years. Beat UGA in first try.
Total Points For:314* Against: 226* (12 Games)
Points Per Game: 26.17

So with an average increase of 30% We could somewhat expect to score around 34 Points per game in his second season on paper.
Click to expand...

amazing stats. Thanks.

I like our team next year.
 
mmbt0ne said:
That dropoff in year 4 at GSU, Adrian Peterson leaving?
Click to expand...

Year 4 at GSU Paul Johnson won the National Championship and Adiran Peterson ran over everyone.

His 5th season in 2001, PJ announced the news that he was leaving for navy after beating App State (our second biggest rival 38-24 the previous week) The players did not play like they had been playing all season and the game was against our biggest rival in the semifinals Furman University.

PJ was mentally not in the game like normal and was probably thinking of recruiting for Navy and we lost 17-24. Did not need Adrian Peterson, just needed a coach that was still in the game.

I can't fault him for that, i'd do the same thing if someone gave me a 4 fold pay increase.
 
Points per game is a very overrated stat, because so often the point total is a function of the style of game you play, which also influences the points per game you allow. You can increase scoring all you want, but it doesn't help at all if you let in more points. For example, you can tout the 34% increase in his second year at GSU, but it seems a lot less meaningful when you realize that he had a 27% increase in PPG allowed. It works both ways too, of course: PPG and PPG allowed tend to be highly dependent on outside factors. The offense could stay exactly the same, but the defense might create more turnovers so the offense scores more, and that creates misleading statistics. Or the defense might create less turnovers but the offense gets better, leading to misleading statistics in the opposite way.

What you really want is an increase on is points per possession and points per possesion allowed. If you're averaging 20 points on five possessions, then increase that to 24 points on six possessions the next year, is your offense really any better? Numberwise, sure, because you're probably scoring quicker; but you're averaging the same points per possession, and if the defense is averaging the same points per possession allowed, it all comes out in the wash.

If you really wanted to do it right, there's all sorts of metrics you can use to help account for turnovers and long returns that result in short fields, which skew the statistics. The NBA is really big on this sort of thing, and there are now advanced statistics that are much more accurate than the traditional stats like PPG and PPG allowed. Unfortunately I couldn't find any of these for college football, which is a little odd since the BCS is decided by numbers....
 
You are right, but i'm too lazy to look up all of thoes stats, I just wanted to give a 40,000 ft view of the situation for everyone to look at.

An easier and far more important stat is that PJ won more games in his second years at both schools.

I think we can all agree that this single stat is the most important of all.
 
Wow, only a Tech geek would post something like this. Congrats for living up to our stereotype.
 
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BarrelORum said:
Wow, only a Tech geek would post something like this. Congrats for living up to our stereotype.
Click to expand...

If you were talking to me that is a HUGE compliment. I did not graduate college (nor would a 1050 get into Georgia Tech) Although I was "tech" prep in highschool :laugher:
 
BarrelORum said:
Wow, only a Tech geek would post something like this. Congrats for living up to our stereotype.
Click to expand...

Yes. Only Tech geeks look at sports stats. It's these geeks that give Tech such a bad stereotype. In fact, I think I've even heard of some sort of secret undergound game that they have created called "fantasy sports" that revolve around nothing BUT stats! Talk about losers. God, they give us such a bad name.
 
Yellow Fever said:
Year 4 at GSU Paul Johnson won the National Championship and Adiran Peterson ran over everyone.

His 5th season in 2001, PJ announced the news that he was leaving for navy after beating App State (our second biggest rival 38-24 the previous week) The players did not play like they had been playing all season and the game was against our biggest rival in the semifinals Furman University.

PJ was mentally not in the game like normal and was probably thinking of recruiting for Navy and we lost 17-24. Did not need Adrian Peterson, just needed a coach that was still in the game.

I can't fault him for that, i'd do the same thing if someone gave me a 4 fold pay increase.
Click to expand...

That loss to Furman had as much to do with poor quarterback play and a terrible call by the refs' on Z's "fumble" as anything else.
A note about PJ's second season at Georgia Southern — the Eagles really had no defense after their top LB went out for the season. It really showed in the NC game against UMass.
But hell hath no fury like a PJ scorned - and the rest of I-AA paid the price the next two seasons. Oregon State barely escaped.
 
I still cant believe we didnt beat Oregon State.

The only loss wose than that was gsu beating Auburn 17-0 and half only to lose the game, that still kills me.
 
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