POLL: 2016 BTC Share Price Prediction

[coit]

To get folks thinking about movement of the Butthurt share price during the season, here's a poll. From the BTC rules, here is how the price of Butthurt shares are adjusted each week.

Butthurt Share Price Weekly Adjustment

The Butthurt share price is adjusted each week depending on how we do relative to the average vote and the spread.

If we win a game predicted < 0.5 = Butthurt drops by 25%
If we win a game predicted > 0.5 = Butthurt drops by 12.5%

If we lose a game predicted < 0.5 = Butthurt rises by 25%
If we lose a game predicted > 0.5 = Butthurt rises by 50%

If we beat the spread, the above factors are reduced or increased by 20%. And vice versa for not beating the spread. Butthurt could move as much as 60% up or down each week.

For each consecutive win, a Butthurt bank will accumulate at 10% per win. At the end of a winning streak, the Butthurt bank percentage will be added to the other percentage for the total weekly adjustment.​

So, here's a simple poll to see where folks think that the end of season price will be. Starting price is $100.

 

[LegendaryGT]

Edit: Oops, I've been reading this backwards. I thought the price went down after a loss. My vote is dumb.

 

[coit]

Because of the butthurt bank mechanic, it'll almost guaranteedly be down by around 50% after game five. The Duke, UNC, VT stretch has the potential to trigger the butthurt bank mechanic on an unexpected loss, which would represent between a 70%-90% drop, assuming only expected losses are lost to that point. Even if we win all of those, the butthurt bank would be at 60% by UGA, which would trigger an expected loss with an 80% drop.

The only way this currency escapes the sub-50 price range is if we run the table after Miami.

Are you looking at this the right way? Butthurt goes up in price after a loss, and down after a win. Unless I wrote it wrong.

Let's say we win the first 3 games. The bank will have 30%. And the price will have dropped from $100 to say $12.50 or something due to three outstanding wins. If we lose to Clemson, Butthurt would go up by 25% plus the 30% bank for an increase of 55%.

I think your text is correct there but you voted in the < $50 range.

 

[LegendaryGT]

Actually, my vote is still right. The compounding nature of it makes the losses more impactful than the gains, even with the butthurt bank, especially because early losses in compounding systems are not offset by complementary later gains. If the expected season plays out, butthurt will be worth about tree fiddy.

 

[coit]

Actually, my vote is still right. The compounding nature of it makes the losses more impactful than the gains, even with the butthurt bank, especially because early losses in compounding systems are not offset by complementary later gains. If the expected season plays out, butthurt will be worth about tree fiddy.

Yeah I think you are right about that. A 50% drop after a win is way more significant than a 50% increase after a loss. I'm going to change it to a 25% decrease after a loss, since that makes it more representative.

 

[coit]

Vote in the poll!

 

[coit]

Final week is underway. Looks like the price will stay below $200 but above $50 depending on how the game goes Saturday.

 

[coit]

Final price: $33

I was wrong previously, I forgot to credit the final win's 10% Butthurt bank increase into the adjustment.

Winners in the poll:

@ThisIsAtlanta
@Akinji07
@ClydeBrick

 

[Akinji07]

All I do is win win win no matter what
Got winning on my mind I can never get enough
And every time they hear the name Akinji
Everybody hands go up.......
And they stay there
And they say yeah
And they stay there
Up down, up down, up down....