POLL: What is the probability we beat Georgia in 2018?

[coit]

Sat, Nov 24 vs Georgie - TBD PM ET

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Last game: Virginia
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ESPN Pre-Season FPI: 3
GT / Dwags FPI Differential: -14.6

So here we are, at the end of another season of predictions.

Last year, I asked three questions:

• Is Kirby still the head coach?
• How many Dwag players have managed to avoid arrest throughout the year?
• Has Jacob Eason been supplanted at QB by the rookie, or is he firmly in charge?

So, I was right on 1 out of 2, and I don't recall the number of arrests but I'm pretty sure it was more than we had. After spending some time thinking it over, these are the questions for this year. Provide your answers in the comments.

• Is Kirby a one-hit wonder?
• Has the QB been supplanted by the rookie, or is his firmly in charge?
• How many Dwag players have ended their seasons with knee injuries?

What else can you say, it is Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate...

To Hell with Georgia!

 

[smokey_wasp]

Our 10 year record against them suggests a 30 percent chance of winning. I suspect we may be better than expected and they may be not quite as good as expected.

0.4

much higher if we use Scott Steiner math.

 

[DressCheeseSideSeaboard]

To hell with Georgia! They are going to crash and burn this season. They think they are Alabama 2.0 but they will lose their opener to Austin Pee and the wheels will fly off their program.


I can always hope.

 

[ClydeBrick]

THWG

All you 0.1, 0.2, 0.3 and 0.4 motheröööööös need to cowboy the öööö up. Or figure a way to justify changing your fandom to a team that doesn't turn you into a cuck ass beta.

Its the last few days of the offseason if you can't get it up now for the season, the basketball forum is open for you to continue with your shitty ways.

Hate uGAG every day, every way.


*Continues day drinking*

 

[User 8976]

You know they say that all teams are created equal, but you look at this offense, you look at our defense and you can see that statement just isn’t true. Two separate studies from the Georgia Tech Research institute and MIT independently found that in a normal game, any team has a 50/50 chance of winning.

Factor in that we have an offensive genius and the team's production metrics are above average. Statistically, Georgie has a 25% chance, at best, to beat us. Factor in Coach Woody and Georgie’s chance of winning decrease to 12.5%


So, the data scientists took their 12.5% chance, deducted our 75% chance of winning, resulting in Georgie’s negative 62.5% chance of winning. They compiled our 75% chance of winning with our extra 50% chance of winning and they found we have a 137.50 % chance of winning. Seniòr Dawg, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for Kirby in 2018. Go öööö yourself with a cactus, mutt.

 

[coit]

We've won 5 out of the last 10 in Athens going back 20 years...

 

[HurricaneJacket]

Fromm will be the starter, but there will be a qb controversy with Fields.

Kirby will fall into a CMR style ceiling with 8/9 wins heading into our game. He wins in February but will have problems coaching up his young team. May eventually win more on the Feb wins, but another Tech win will make his seat warm.

Knees will be intact until they meet us inbetween the hedges. Then players will become soccer like in their acting and be miraculously healed by the next series.

 

[saxondawg]

Factoid, not that any of you need any extra incentive to pull for Austin Peay (UGA's opponent) Saturday. Head coach is a Healy.
His father, Rob Healy, grandfather, Bill Healy, and uncle, Brad Bourne, all played at Georgia Tech. I actually remember Rob Healy.

Just thought you'd want to be apprised of this fact.

Other factoids, less relevant. Austin Peay is named after a popular Tennessee governor who signed the law forbidding the teaching of evolution, thus launching the Scopes trial in Tennessee. Also, Gov. Peay fathered a child when he was fourteen, with the 28-year-old housekeeper, according to Wikipedia. It's just interesting to me that nobody associated with Austin Peay has tried to remove that from Wikipedia.

Thanks, I will monopolize no more of your time.

 

[HurricaneJacket]

Factoid, not that any of you need any extra incentive to pull for Austin Peay (UGA's opponent) Saturday. Head coach is a Healy.
His father, Rob Healy, grandfather, Bill Healy, and uncle, Brad Bourne, all played at Georgia Tech. I actually remember Rob Healy.

Just thought you'd want to be apprised of this fact.

Other factoids, less relevant. Austin Peay is named after a popular Tennessee governor who signed the law forbidding the teaching of evolution, thus launching the Scopes trial in Tennessee. Also, Gov. Peay fathered a child when he was fourteen, with the 28-year-old housekeeper, according to Wikipedia. It's just interesting to me that nobody associated with Austin Peay has tried to remove that from Wikipedia.

Thanks, I will monopolize no more of your time.

Cool factoids. As a Native Tennessean I was not aware of Austin Peay's youthful indiscretions.

@saxondawg Can you care to give us a fan's view of what to expect with your school this year? Is Smart creating a qb controversy by not naming a starter? How is the co-OC thing workimg out? Etc.

 

[saxondawg]

Cool factoids. As a Native Tennessean I was not aware of Austin Peay's youthful indiscretions.

@saxondawg Can you care to give us a fan's view of what to expect with your school this year? Is Smart creating a qb controversy by not naming a starter? How is the co-OC thing workimg out? Etc.

You won't like it. This will be a pretty good team. The obvious loss is an incredible load of leadership, a group of five seniors who stayed back for one more year. The talent in-flow is actually greater than the senior out-flow, but of course you can't replace leadership. We'll be fine at running back, but the loss of Roquan Smith is a big one. Best single season I've ever seen for a defensive player.

There's really no QB controversy--Fromm has practiced with the 1s all camp, but they're going to use Fields in certain situations. Fromm has apparently lifted his game, and Fields is talented but not ready. UGA has a very light schedule (no Notre Dame-type game this year, but next year ND at home, and Oregon, UCLA, Clemson, and maybe Texas are coming onto future schedules). Will play this season in Baton Rouge at night. Auburn is the toughest game but is at home. Vegas makes UGA the favorite in all regular season games, but it's nearly impossible not to stumble somewhere. Maybe at South Carolina or Missouri, both of which will be trendy upset picks.

Also, people like to cite UGA losing 30+ seniors. A great many of these were walk-ons. UGA actually played a large number of subs last season, so there is good experience at all positions. No freshmen are starting, even though that was the top recruiting class. Best units are probably wide receivers and a dominant offensive line. Main running backs are Swift and Holyfield. Five-star freshman Cook is a little guy, slot type but apparently dangerous. Zeus, #1 running back, is out for the season. Conventional wisdom: UGA goes to SEC championship game but not to the playoffs because Bama. Talk about QB controversies? Bama has one, but they're loaded as usual.

 

[savbandjacket]

I’m pissed that we have a division opponent and uga plays a strong wind the week before.

 

[saxondawg]

I’m pissed that we have a division opponent and uga plays a strong wind the week before.

Seems I've read more teams are taking BYEs before Tech or getting an FCS team, for extra time to prepare for the TO. Also, more teams are doing what UGA does and scattering a little option defense practice throughout the season. (Didn't work in Smart's first season.) Hey, look at it as respect. But coaches despise having to defend this offense, and they're doing a little extra to be ready. Which is why, in my opinion, Johnson doesn't need to look upon his original system as holy and not to be tampered with. It needs a little more misdirection and surprise.

 

[HurricaneJacket]

You won't like it. This will be a pretty good team. The obvious loss is an incredible load of leadership, a group of five seniors who stayed back for one more year. The talent in-flow is actually greater than the senior out-flow, but of course you can't replace leadership. We'll be fine at running back, but the loss of Roquan Smith is a big one. Best single season I've ever seen for a defensive player.

There's really no QB controversy--Fromm has practiced with the 1s all camp, but they're going to use Fields in certain situations. Fromm has apparently lifted his game, and Fields is talented but not ready. UGA has a very light schedule (no Notre Dame-type game this year, but next year ND at home, and Oregon, UCLA, Clemson, and maybe Texas are coming onto future schedules). Will play this season in Baton Rouge at night. Auburn is the toughest game but is at home. Vegas makes UGA the favorite in all regular season games, but it's nearly impossible not to stumble somewhere. Maybe at South Carolina or Missouri, both of which will be trendy upset picks.

Also, people like to cite UGA losing 30+ seniors. A great many of these were walk-ons. UGA actually played a large number of subs last season, so there is good experience at all positions. No freshmen are starting, even though that was the top recruiting class. Best units are probably wide receivers and a dominant offensive line. Main running backs are Swift and Holyfield. Five-star freshman Cook is a little guy, slot type but apparently dangerous. Zeus, #1 running back, is out for the season. Conventional wisdom: UGA goes to SEC championship game but not to the playoffs because Bama. Talk about QB controversies? Bama has one, but they're loaded as usual.

Thanks for the response! I don't have to like it, but its good to know what the other camp thinks.

I will admit, that I'm in the camp of I'll believe it when I see it when it comes to you guys. You say the 31 guys leaving were mostly walk-ons, but there were also a lot of core players that left, and sometimes stepping up to a starting role can require a big change in mindset. I think this will be especially true on defense, where I believe you guys are returning only 5 starters (please correct me if I'm wrong).

As always, I think this game will come down to who can run the ball better and momentum entering the game. Tech has a habit of playing to the level of our opponents, and we like playing in Athens a lot more than in Atlanta. I still see the game (ahead of the season) as a 50/50 toss-up that's going to come down to who's mentally tougher. I also think that Kirby is creating needless distractions at this point by not naming a Starter (at least as of Tuesday) even if everyone knows that its going to be Fromm. It will definitely be interesting to see how both team's seasons play out. Thanks again for the reply!

 

[WreckRod]

Seems I've read more teams are taking BYEs before Tech or getting an FCS team, for extra time to prepare for the TO. Also, more teams are doing what UGA does and scattering a little option defense practice throughout the season. (Didn't work in Smart's first season.) Hey, look at it as respect. But coaches despise having to defend this offense, and they're doing a little extra to be ready. Which is why, in my opinion, Johnson doesn't need to look upon his original system as holy and not to be tampered with. It needs a little more misdirection and surprise.

Lol you can only misdirect superior athleticism so much, and only if that superior athleticism is not disciplined. I have no idea what we have this year as a team - could be 2017 (or 15) all over again or it could be an awesome year or anything in between.

There really aren't a whole lot of upsets in this series - when GT wins it's because we have a demonstrably better team, and even then it's only by the skin of our teeth.

Not having to deal with Roquan Smith is the only big difference I see this year, and it may or may not matter depending on how we develop and who is hurt or not going into that game. I do feel better about our chances with Ugag than our chances with Clemson, but that's not saying much.

 

[GT flunkout]

The last time UGA was ranked in the top five to start the season after sniffing a national championship the year before they couldn't outscore us in regulation, and lost the next year.

There is no new paradigm this year. They have been building a dynasty a long time. Why should I believe this is the year they have finally done it! GT 24 georgie 21

 

[saxondawg]

Lol you can only misdirect superior athleticism so much, and only if that superior athleticism is not disciplined. I have no idea what we have this year as a team - could be 2017 (or 15) all over again or it could be an awesome year or anything in between.

There really aren't a whole lot of upsets in this series - when GT wins it's because we have a demonstrably better team, and even then it's only by the skin of our teeth.

Not having to deal with Roquan Smith is the only big difference I see this year, and it may or may not matter depending on how we develop and who is hurt or not going into that game. I do feel better about our chances with Ugag than our chances with Clemson, but that's not saying much.

I wasn't really talking about the UGA series--just Tech in general--when I talked about "more misdirection." I'm not as informed on Johnson's system as you guys are, and I said this is just a hunch. But it seems some of the programs who have followed CPJ with this offense are beginning to do a lot of tweaking. The commentator on the Army/Navy game made this point last year. It's no longer the straight Johnson triple-option. (And I know he doesn't run a triple option most of the time; just don't know what else to call it.)

I think in college football, offense morphs and evolves constantly. The spread came along, gave everyone fits, and then defenses began recruiting to counter it. It's still effective, isn't going anywhere, isn't being dismissed as "that high school system" anymore. Alabama uses spread concepts; so does UGA, among the dinosaur offenses. My point is Johnson is no exception. People will catch up. You're on point that superior athleticism will tend to prevail, but being an outlier is no longer as big an edge as it was.

I don't disagree on our series. But Roquan is a huge, huge difference, and more in that game than any other. He was made to seek and destroy the perimeter pitch. Just remains to be seen how different UGA will be without that advantage. He was a once-in-a-generation guy.