Potential BCS Catastrophe

ASimPerson

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And it may not be what you think.

Let's assume the following:
LSU and Oregon go to the national title game.
Virginia Tech beats ACC in the ACCCG
West Virginia wins the Big East
Oklahoma wins the Big 12, beating the winner of the Kansas/Missouri game in the Big 12 CG
Ohio State beats Michigan

So that gives you the following bowl bids:
BCS title game: LSU - Oregon
Orange: Virginia Tech - West Virginia (not certain, but likely unless the Sugar really wants them instead of a SEC team)
Rose: Ohio State

So the Sugar gets the first pick to replace LSU. They'll take Georgia or Tennessee, in all likelihood.

The Rose then gets to replace Oregon. They will almost certainly take the winner of the Southern Cal/Arizona State game.

The Orange gets the next pick, and as I already said, they'll take West Virginia.

So that leaves the Fiesta with the next pick. Now we have a problem! The Pac-10 and SEC have already sent two teams to the BCS and cannot send more. Looking at this week's standings, it is unlikely that the Big East or ACC will product a team that could qualify as an at-large.

The Big 12 will likely have two teams available for at-large selection: the loser of the Big 12 CG and a (likely) 10-2 Texas. I would imagine most BCS bowls would salivate at the thought of a 10-win Texas team over Mizzou or Kansas. This doesn't really help the Fiesta Bowl, though, as they already have a Big 12 team. And even if this Big 12 team goes to the Sugar, we still have a problem.

As I said, it's unlikely that the ACC (with BC's loss yesterday) and the Big East will produce two BCS teams. So this leaves us in a quandary - there aren't enough available teams! Hawaii actually lost a spot in the rankings even with a win yesterday and at this rate may not crack the top 14.

I do bowl predictions every week and this is driving me nuts. We may actually be looking at a better situation if, say, Michigan beats Ohio State because they are unlikely to finish above the Boise State/Hawaii winner, thus giving us enough teams. Of course, then the Fiesta would have to be willing to have another mid-major this year or match-up two Big 12 teams.

Bizarro Year, indeed.
 
Interesting. I never really thought about it. They still might take BC @ 10-3. This really stems from the fact they added another BCS bowl last year.
 
Not sure BC stays in the top 14 if they lose again, even if it is in the ACCCG.

Which is why it's really bad for the ACC that they lost last night. If they won out and lost in the ACCCG to VPI, then it was rather likely they'd get an at-large at 11-2 if for no other reason they wouldn't have anyone else to take.
 
Not sure BC stays in the top 14 if they lose again, even if it is in the ACCCG.

Which is why it's really bad for the ACC that they lost last night. If they won out and lost in the ACCCG to VPI, then it was rather likely they'd get an at-large at 11-2 if for no other reason they wouldn't have anyone else to take.


BC's loss last night might have cost tons. My guess is Boise State beats Hawaii and rises to #12 and gets the last berth again. Heck, they may actually play in the Rose Bowl and the winner of the Az state vs USC game might play in the fiesta.

I don't know the order in which they pick this year or if the Pac 10 runner-up automatically goes to the Rose.
 
Clemson's 14 right now I think, if they beat BC , then S.Carolina, then lose to VT in the ACCCG, then they have an outside shot at 9-3


i think
 
I don't know the order in which they pick this year or if the Pac 10 runner-up automatically goes to the Rose.

The Rose will always pick a Big Ten or Pac-10 team if one is qualified.

I think Clemson has an outside shot at the top 14, but we'll have to wait and see.
 
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