LegendaryGT
Dodd-Like
- Joined
- Oct 18, 2009
- Messages
- 62,557
So last week's was a disaster. I'm blaming the combination of data from last year and dumb stats from demolishing two nobodies at the front of our schedule. Maybe it's just the optimist in me, but I still believe we are way better than we played, even though our stats against ND are way better than they should be due to two very very late touchdown drives. To make a long story short: there's no way this prediction is accurate, we've just been playing too inconsistently in several variables for this algorithm.
I'll do other games by request. I'm making a slight modification to the predictor poll, which I'll post later in the thread.
EDIT: Using only 2015 data:
Predictor said:GT vs DUKE
Week 4 of 2015
GT - Offense
Yardage: 466 ypg
Performance: 48 (higher is better)
Scoring: 41
Efficiency: 11 (lower is better)
Performance: 32 (higher is better)
GT - Defense
Yardage: 325 ypg allowed
Performance: 31 (higher is better)
Scoring: 18
Efficiency: 18 (higher is better)
Performance: 38 (higher is better)
DUKE - Offense
Yardage: 406 ypg
Performance: 16 (higher is better)
Scoring: 29
Efficiency: 13 (lower is better)
Performance: 15 (higher is better)
DUKE - Defense
Yardage: 301 ypg allowed
Performance: 19 (higher is better)
Scoring: 17
Efficiency: 17 (higher is better)
Performance: 13 (higher is better)
Prediction:
Pure statistical: GT 36 (452 yards), DUKE 16 (312 yards)
GT best case: GT 46 (603 yards), DUKE 11 (262 yards)
DUKE best case: GT 29 (373 yards), DUKE 24 (380 yards)
GT talent: 5051
DUKE talent: 4312
GT talent of schedule: 7681
DUKE talent of schedule: 4428
Suggested talent adjustment: 19% towards GT best case
Final: GT 38 (482 yards), DUKE 15 (302 yards)
I'll do other games by request. I'm making a slight modification to the predictor poll, which I'll post later in the thread.
EDIT: Using only 2015 data:
Predictor said:GT vs DUKE
Week 4 of 2015
GT - Offense
Yardage: 493 ypg
Performance: 41 (higher is better)
Scoring: 52
Efficiency: 9 (lower is better)
Performance: 49 (higher is better)
GT - Defense
Yardage: 298 ypg allowed
Performance: 48 (higher is better)
Scoring: 15
Efficiency: 19 (higher is better)
Performance: 28 (higher is better)
DUKE - Offense
Yardage: 498 ypg
Performance: 45 (higher is better)
Scoring: 34
Efficiency: 14 (lower is better)
Performance: 0 (higher is better)
DUKE - Defense
Yardage: 249 ypg allowed
Performance: 38 (higher is better)
Scoring: 8
Efficiency: 28 (higher is better)
Performance: 97 (higher is better)
Prediction:
Pure statistical: GT 23 (287 yards), DUKE 15 (369 yards)
GT best case: GT 32 (379 yards), DUKE 11 (255 yards)
DUKE best case: GT 17 (171 yards), DUKE 23 (492 yards)
GT talent: 5051
DUKE talent: 4312
GT talent of schedule: 4628
DUKE talent of schedule: 2413
Suggested talent adjustment: 14% towards GT best case
Final: GT 24 (300 yards), DUKE 14 (353 yards)
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