LegendaryGT
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- Oct 18, 2009
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Predictor said:GT vs UNC
Week 5 of 2015
GT - Offense
Yardage: 450 ypg
Performance: 37 (higher is better)
Scoring: 44
Efficiency: 10 (lower is better)
Performance: 50 (higher is better)
GT - Defense
Yardage: 289 ypg allowed
Performance: 69 (higher is better)
Scoring: 20
Efficiency: 14 (higher is better)
Performance: 3 (higher is better)
UNC - Offense
Yardage: 496 ypg
Performance: 53 (higher is better)
Scoring: 38
Efficiency: 12 (lower is better)
Performance: 20 (higher is better)
UNC - Defense
Yardage: 340 ypg allowed
Performance: 15 (higher is better)
Scoring: 14
Efficiency: 23 (higher is better)
Performance: 91 (higher is better)
Prediction:
Pure statistical: GT 26 (458 yards), UNC 24 (310 yards)
GT best case: GT 40 (551 yards), UNC 10 (142 yards)
UNC best case: GT 14 (372 yards), UNC 40 (444 yards)
GT talent: 5051
UNC talent: 7429
GT talent of schedule: 4549
UNC talent of schedule: 3545
Suggested talent adjustment: 13% towards UNC best case
Final: GT 24 (446 yards), UNC 26 (328 yards)
So the predictor can't see failed blocks, and this is what you get. We held Duke below 300 yards, while outgaining and outscoring every opponent they've played so far. We must be pretty good. :hsughcry:
It thinks we're going to win the statistical battle because it still loves our defense, but lose the game because of turnovers and poor field position. I think it's overrated our offense a bit because of our blowouts against tiny weak teams at the beginning of the year, but then again UNC is getting credit for their tiny weak teams as well.
I made a small adjustment to the talent adjustment logic, it now puts more emphasis on who you've played than it did before, as a result. Next week I will probably be able to start removing FCS games, and get down to making bad predictions for better reasons.
EDIT: Excluded all FCS data, things are starting to look a little more rational.
Predictor said:GT vs UNC
Week 5 of 2015
GT - Offense
Yardage: 406 ypg
Performance: 13 (higher is better)
Scoring: 35
Efficiency: 11 (lower is better)
Performance: 36 (higher is better)
GT - Defense
Yardage: 309 ypg allowed
Performance: 50 (higher is better)
Scoring: 24
Efficiency: 12 (higher is better)
Performance: -15 (higher is better)
UNC - Offense
Yardage: 462 ypg
Performance: 28 (higher is better)
Scoring: 30
Efficiency: 15 (lower is better)
Performance: -1 (higher is better)
UNC - Defense
Yardage: 379 ypg allowed
Performance: -2 (higher is better)
Scoring: 15
Efficiency: 24 (higher is better)
Performance: 100 (higher is better)
Prediction:
Pure statistical: GT 19 (422 yards), UNC 20 (298 yards)
GT best case: GT 27 (446 yards), UNC 14 (210 yards)
UNC best case: GT 10 (389 yards), UNC 32 (398 yards)
GT talent: 5051
UNC talent: 7429
GT talent of schedule: 6065
UNC talent of schedule: 7091
Suggested talent adjustment: 34% towards UNC best case
Final: GT 16 (411 yards), UNC 24 (332 yards)
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