Predictor Week 7

[LegendaryGT]

GT vs PITT
Week 7 of 2015

GT - Offense
Yardage: 366 ypg
Performance: 6 (higher is better)
Scoring: 32
Efficiency: 11 (lower is better)
Performance: 32 (higher is better)
GT - Defense
Yardage: 379 ypg allowed
Performance: 7 (higher is better)
Scoring: 31
Efficiency: 12 (higher is better)
Performance: -12 (higher is better)

PITT - Offense
Yardage: 317 ypg
Performance: -13 (higher is better)
Scoring: 22
Efficiency: 13 (lower is better)
Performance: 1 (higher is better)
PITT - Defense
Yardage: 239 ypg allowed
Performance: 56 (higher is better)
Scoring: 16
Efficiency: 14 (higher is better)
Performance: 7 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: GT 17 (182 yards), PITT 24 (297 yards)
GT best case: GT 27 (254 yards), PITT 19 (254 yards)
PITT best case: GT 11 (119 yards), PITT 27 (335 yards)

GT talent: 5051
PITT talent: 5278
GT talent of schedule: 7285
PITT talent of schedule: 5444

Suggested talent adjustment: 16% towards GT best case
Final: GT 19 (193 yards), PITT 23 (290 yards)

And the rest:

GT 16, FSU 35
GT 52, UVA 30
GT 34, VT 35
GT 36, MIA 42
GT 34, UGA 54

The predictor is getting emotional about this season, but can't overlook it's hate for UVA.

#1: ('FLA', [0.9918, 120, 2, 6, 0])
#2: ('FSU', [0.9836, 118, 4, 5, 0])
#3: ('BAY', [0.9713, 115, 7, 4, 0])
#4: ('CLEM', [0.9672, 114, 8, 3, 0])
#5: ('OSU', [0.959, 112, 10, 6, 0])
#6: ('TAMU', [0.9549, 111, 11, 3, 0])
#7: ('LSU', [0.9467, 109, 13, 5, 0])
#8: ('UTAH', [0.9344, 106, 16, 5, 0])
#9: ('ALA', [0.9167, 122, 0, 5, 1])
#10: ('MICH', [0.9126, 121, 1, 5, 1])
#11: ('IOWA', [0.9098, 100, 22, 5, 0])
#12: ('TCU', [0.8852, 94, 28, 5, 0])
#13: ('STAN', [0.8713, 115, 7, 4, 1])
#14: ('ND', [0.8593, 108, 14, 5, 1])
#15: ('MISS', [0.8549, 111, 11, 4, 1])
#16: ('TOL', [0.8443, 84, 38, 5, 0])
#17: ('BSU', [0.8344, 106, 16, 4, 1])
#18: ('PSU', [0.8306, 101, 21, 5, 1])
#19: ('OKLA', [0.8303, 105, 17, 4, 1])
#20: ('HOU', [0.8238, 79, 43, 4, 0])
#21: ('TEM', [0.8156, 77, 45, 4, 0])
#22: ('MSST', [0.8094, 106, 16, 3, 1])
#23: ('MSU', [0.7951, 72, 50, 6, 0])
#24: ('USC', [0.7877, 119, 3, 3, 2])
#25: ('CAL', [0.7811, 93, 29, 4, 1])

#32: ('PITT', [0.7561, 93, 29, 3, 1])

#74: ('GT', [0.4033, 74, 48, 1, 4])

I like how the predictor poll is coming together, as an aside. Any requests?

 

[Akinji07]

Thanks TIA.

Missouri @ uga?

 

[Akinji07]

Also curious about Mich State @ Michigan.

 

[Akinji07]

and Bama @ A&M

 

[LegendaryGT]

Thanks TIA.

Missouri @ uga?

There's an error in Missouri's data right now. I'll see if it's something easy to fix.

Also curious about Mich State @ Michigan.

MSU vs MICH
Week 7 of 2015

MSU - Offense
Yardage: 408 ypg
Performance: -3 (higher is better)
Scoring: 31
Efficiency: 13 (lower is better)
Performance: 0 (higher is better)
MSU - Defense
Yardage: 362 ypg allowed
Performance: 9 (higher is better)
Scoring: 21
Efficiency: 17 (higher is better)
Performance: 10 (higher is better)

MICH - Offense
Yardage: 380 ypg
Performance: -6 (higher is better)
Scoring: 29
Efficiency: 12 (lower is better)
Performance: 17 (higher is better)
MICH - Defense
Yardage: 184 ypg allowed
Performance: 109 (higher is better)
Scoring: 6
Efficiency: 29 (higher is better)
Performance: 106 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: MSU 0 (16 yards), MICH 18 (321 yards)
MSU best case: MSU 5 (180 yards), MICH 11 (300 yards)
MICH best case: MSU -2 (-50 yards), MICH 22 (336 yards)

MSU talent: 7151
MICH talent: 9049
MSU talent of schedule: 4519
MICH talent of schedule: 4582

Suggested talent adjustment: 19% towards MICH best case
Final: MSU 0 (3 yards), MICH 19 (323 yards)

 

[Tempest]

I mean Michigan did shut out NW. I could see that happening.

Can you do Ole Racists vs Memphis?

And the rest of the ACC games? Kind of curious what it thinks of VPI vs thugU.

 

[Akinji07]

Predictor thinks #7 MSU best case they lose to #12 Michigan by 5..

öööö.

 

[johncu]

MICH best case: MSU -2 (-50 yards), MICH 22 (336 yards)

:turbonoes:

 

[Akinji07]

:turbonoes:

Is that even possible?

 

[Tempest]

Is that even possible?

With college counting sack yards against rushing yards it is possible. #There'sAChanceGif Likely? No.

 

[LegendaryGT]

MISS vs MEM
Week 7 of 2015

MISS - Offense
Yardage: 497 ypg
Performance: 43 (higher is better)
Scoring: 41
Efficiency: 12 (lower is better)
Performance: 12 (higher is better)
MISS - Defense
Yardage: 366 ypg allowed
Performance: -1 (higher is better)
Scoring: 23
Efficiency: 15 (higher is better)
Performance: 15 (higher is better)

MEM - Offense
Yardage: 556 ypg
Performance: 21 (higher is better)
Scoring: 44
Efficiency: 12 (lower is better)
Performance: 3 (higher is better)
MEM - Defense
Yardage: 526 ypg allowed
Performance: -10 (higher is better)
Scoring: 31
Efficiency: 16 (higher is better)
Performance: 5 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: MISS 52 (722 yards), MEM 32 (541 yards)
MISS best case: MISS 59 (817 yards), MEM 25 (445 yards)
MEM best case: MISS 42 (547 yards), MEM 38 (700 yards)

MISS talent: 8889
MEM talent: 3260
MISS talent of schedule: 7327
MEM talent of schedule: 4349

Suggested talent adjustment: 86% towards MISS best case
Final: MISS 58 (804 yards), MEM 26 (458 yards)

MIA vs VT
Week 7 of 2015

MIA - Offense
Yardage: 442 ypg
Performance: 11 (higher is better)
Scoring: 31
Efficiency: 14 (lower is better)
Performance: 10 (higher is better)
MIA - Defense
Yardage: 463 ypg allowed
Performance: 1 (higher is better)
Scoring: 29
Efficiency: 15 (higher is better)
Performance: 6 (higher is better)

VT - Offense
Yardage: 348 ypg
Performance: 0 (higher is better)
Scoring: 28
Efficiency: 12 (lower is better)
Performance: 14 (higher is better)
VT - Defense
Yardage: 359 ypg allowed
Performance: 15 (higher is better)
Scoring: 26
Efficiency: 13 (higher is better)
Performance: 4 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: MIA 30 (384 yards), VT 29 (398 yards)
MIA best case: MIA 34 (422 yards), VT 26 (338 yards)
VT best case: MIA 25 (343 yards), VT 33 (460 yards)

MIA talent: 8588
VT talent: 7716
MIA talent of schedule: 7004
VT talent of schedule: 6131

Suggested talent adjustment: 17% towards MIA best case
Final: MIA 31 (391 yards), VT 29 (387 yards)

I don't want to do the entire ACC, lots of boring stuff in there, any others in specific? Here are some big games because that's fun:

ALA vs TAMU
Week 7 of 2015

ALA - Offense
Yardage: 437 ypg
Performance: 29 (higher is better)
Scoring: 34
Efficiency: 12 (lower is better)
Performance: 20 (higher is better)
ALA - Defense
Yardage: 267 ypg allowed
Performance: 58 (higher is better)
Scoring: 15
Efficiency: 17 (higher is better)
Performance: 25 (higher is better)

TAMU - Offense
Yardage: 495 ypg
Performance: 22 (higher is better)
Scoring: 46
Efficiency: 10 (lower is better)
Performance: 27 (higher is better)
TAMU - Defense
Yardage: 367 ypg allowed
Performance: 16 (higher is better)
Scoring: 22
Efficiency: 16 (higher is better)
Performance: 4 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: ALA 37 (433 yards), TAMU 15 (232 yards)
ALA best case: ALA 47 (505 yards), TAMU 10 (162 yards)
TAMU best case: ALA 25 (321 yards), TAMU 25 (324 yards)

ALA talent: 14716
TAMU talent: 10113
ALA talent of schedule: 6349
TAMU talent of schedule: 3829

Suggested talent adjustment: 71% towards ALA best case
Final: ALA 44 (484 yards), TAMU 11 (182 yards)

FLA vs LSU
Week 7 of 2015

FLA - Offense
Yardage: 389 ypg
Performance: -12 (higher is better)
Scoring: 32
Efficiency: 12 (lower is better)
Performance: 18 (higher is better)
FLA - Defense
Yardage: 290 ypg allowed
Performance: 58 (higher is better)
Scoring: 14
Efficiency: 20 (higher is better)
Performance: 59 (higher is better)

LSU - Offense
Yardage: 460 ypg
Performance: 7 (higher is better)
Scoring: 37
Efficiency: 12 (lower is better)
Performance: 23 (higher is better)
LSU - Defense
Yardage: 303 ypg allowed
Performance: 20 (higher is better)
Scoring: 22
Efficiency: 13 (higher is better)
Performance: 2 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: FLA 21 (190 yards), LSU 12 (220 yards)
FLA best case: FLA 27 (239 yards), LSU 5 (141 yards)
LSU best case: FLA 15 (160 yards), LSU 20 (309 yards)

FLA talent: 11297
LSU talent: 11816
FLA talent of schedule: 5025
LSU talent of schedule: 6752

Suggested talent adjustment: 22% towards LSU best case
Final: FLA 20 (183 yards), LSU 14 (240 yards)

 

[LegendaryGT]

Is that even possible?

Well the yardage is, anyway. I think MSU held Michigan to something similar rushing-wise a year or two back.

 

[LegendaryGT]

Predictor thinks #7 MSU best case they lose to #12 Michigan by 5..

öööö.

When it makes a prediction like this, Michigan loses 48-45 in 3OT.

 

[Akinji07]

How did you adjust Florida LSU for losing their quarterback?

 

[johncu]

Is that even possible?

I hear Harbaugh plays Hearts. After forcing a safety, they chose to subtract 2 from Michigan State's score, rather than adding 2 to their own. After 3 straight shutouts, it was the only way to actually impress anyone defensively.

 

[LegendaryGT]

How did you adjust Florida LSU for losing their quarterback?

I don't do any adjustments for injuries. I haven't found a reliable generalizable correlation to 'star player' injuries. Not that I'd necessarily characterize Grier as a star player. Their offense isn't exactly lighting the world on fire.