Probability of being ranked before Miami

MtownJacket

MtownJacket

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So GT isn't ranked, and maybe they shouldn't be after losing to a terrible Tennessee, but I think some games going our way could turn the tide during the bye. GT is 28th in the coaches poll and 29th in the AP poll. Its reasonable to conclude that any 1 loss team ahead of us that loses will drop behind. Some undefeated teams that lose could drop behind too. So how might GT move up?

Almost certain dropouts:
Louisville or NC State

Probable dropouts:
WVU
FSU
Oregon (ahead in AP)

Less likely dropouts:
UCF (öööö you pussies)
USF
ND
UF
VPISU
SDSU
Auburn

The winner of Texas Tech vs. Kansas St will likely be ahead of us unless both teams look bad, and TTU is ahead in AP while KSt is ahead in coaches, so unlikely movement there. If Utah beats Stanford they stay ahead, while if Stanford beats Utah they jump us, so unlikely movement there. Ohio St will probably drop out if they lose, but Maryland would pass us (It would really suck if Ohio St lost but stayed ahead while Maryland jumped us too, so I guess I will root for Ohio St).

Other teams that could pass us if they win:
Texas A&M (lololololololol)
Michigan St (lol)
Kentucky?
Navy?
Memphis?
Colorado St?

The teams with question marks would need a convincing win to pass us I think.

So what does that mean? If WVU, FSU, and Oregon lose their games as big underdogs then we should be #25 as long as no one jumps us. To be safe we probably need one or two of the less likely dropouts to lose to account for being jumped.

I'm guessing that makes for a ~25% chance of being ranked at Miami.
 
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Are you taking into account whether Butch Jones is voting for us?
 
These types of thread about rankings and shit are the biggest waste of time since the vice presidential debate.
 
I've never understood why people want to act like being ranked is irrelevant. As long as CFP is mathematically possible, I want to be ranked early and as high as possible. Even after that ship has sailed, being ranked means more national attention on our games, which could benefit recruiting, plus it's just more fun when people give a shit about our games.

If we lose to Miami and drop out, so be it. But right now we certainly deserve to be ranked as much as any of those other shitty teams in the 20s, so I hope we do get in next weekend.
 
Playing at 7:15 on ESPN has way more exposure than 12:30 on the ACC network. If they can market this game as a battle between two ranked teams it is good for GT recruiting, sidewalk fans, etc.

GT's competition on that day is Arkansas vs. Alabama, Oklahoma vs Texas, Auburn vs. LSU, Michigan vs. Indiana, Missouri vs. UGA, Oregon vs. Stanford, Utah vs. USC. Pretty weak slate. Add to that the fact that CBS will pick up one of those SEC games and Fox will pick up one of those PAC-12 games, and we have a real chance. If we are ranked going into Miami we will probably get a 7:15 ESPN slot. Maybe even ABC.
 
MtownJacket said:
Playing at 7:15 on ESPN has way more exposure than 12:30 on the ACC network. If they can market this game as a battle between two ranked teams it is good for GT recruiting, sidewalk fans, etc.

GT's competition on that day is Arkansas vs. Alabama, Oklahoma vs Texas, Auburn vs. LSU, Michigan vs. Indiana, Missouri vs. UGA, Oregon vs. Stanford, Utah vs. USC. Pretty weak slate. Add to that the fact that CBS will pick up one of those SEC games and Fox will pick up one of those PAC-12 games, and we have a real chance. If we are ranked going into Miami we will probably get a 7:15 ESPN slot. Maybe even ABC.
Click to expand...
They'd have to pick up the 6-day option today for it to make a difference.
 
johncu said:
I've never understood why people want to act like being ranked is irrelevant. As long as CFP is mathematically possible, I want to be ranked early and as high as possible. Even after that ship has sailed, being ranked means more national attention on our games, which could benefit recruiting, plus it's just more fun when people give a öööö about our games.

If we lose to Miami and drop out, so be it. But right now we certainly deserve to be ranked as much as any of those other ööööty teams in the 20s, so I hope we do get in next weekend.
Click to expand...

While I personally don't care about rankings everything here is why rankings matter. Especially preseason rankings. The earlier and better a team is ranked, deserved or not, the longer it takes to fall out of the rankings and the better your chances at moving into real contention.
 
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