Sagarin and ESPN Predictors

cyptomcat

cyptomcat

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Opponent -- ESPN FBI GT win chance -- Sagarin line
vs Pittsburgh -- 75.8% -- GT -7
vs #12 Florida State -- 51.9% -- GT -1
@ Virginia -- 81.0% -- GT -13
vs Virginia Tech -- 67.5% -- GT -7
@ Miami (FL) -- 54.4% -- GT -2
vs #19 Georgia -- 42.4% -- GT -1
 
What? I mean I think we can win those games... But we'll need some serious improvement. Two games at home will certainly help. (Pitt and FSU)

Can't get a read on our defense... Seems like we have played well some times and sometimes they've been awful.
 
cyptomcat said:
Opponent -- ESPN FBI GT win chance -- Sagarin line
vs Pittsburgh -- 75.8% -- GT -7
vs #12 Florida State -- 51.9% -- GT -1
@ Virginia -- 81.0% -- GT -13
vs Virginia Tech -- 67.5% -- GT -7
@ Miami (FL) -- 54.4% -- GT -2
vs #19 Georgia -- 42.4% -- GT -1
Click to expand...

But have they been right about us even once so far this year?
 
I guess that's what happens when the four Power 5 teams you've played have a combined record of 19-3.

Quality losses!
 
Teamrankings.com gives us 12% to win out. 6-6 most likely scenario.

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cyptomcat said:
Opponent -- ESPN FBI GT win chance -- Sagarin line
vs Pittsburgh -- 75.8% -- GT -7
vs #12 Florida State -- 51.9% -- GT -1
@ Virginia -- 81.0% -- GT -13
vs Virginia Tech -- 67.5% -- GT -7
@ Miami (FL) -- 54.4% -- GT -2
vs #19 Georgia -- 42.4% -- GT -1
Click to expand...


Wow. Irrational as it is, that sorta lifted my spirits. Though favoring us by one over a FSU and UGA kinda makes me think I'm being punkd.


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Football Outsiders rankings (the ones who said in 2014 we had the most efficient offense of the last decade):
1. Clemson
4. Notre Dame
10. FSU
21. Duke
34. UGA
36. Pittsburgh
40. GT
43. VPISU
47. Miami
51. UNC
73. UVA
 
ChrisW said:
Football Outsiders rankings (the ones who said in 2014 we had the most efficient offense of the last decade):
1. Clemson
4. Notre Dame
10. FSU
21. Duke
34. UGA
36. Pittsburgh
40. GT
43. VPISU
47. Miami
51. UNC
73. UVA
Click to expand...


When you look at it that way we did pretty good against ND and Clemson.


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It looks like computers still have no clue on us:

Opponent -- ESPN FBI GT win chance -- Sagarin line
vs #12 Florida State -- 43.8% -- GT +3
@ Virginia -- 78.7% -- GT -12
vs Virginia Tech -- 65.1% -- GT -6
@ Miami (FL) -- 47.4% -- GT +1
vs #19 Georgia -- 44.4% -- GT -1
 
Have you watched those teams play? Other than FSU, they are all deeply flawed teams, and only 2 are really more talented than we are. FSU and UGA were one man teams on offense. FSU's one man has a gimpy hamstring, and UGA's one man's knee exploded. The highlight of Virginia's season was breaking Malik Zaire's ankle and almost not losing, Miami got blasted by Cincy's backup QB, and VT still has no offense.

That said, we are equally flawed, so I have no idea WTF will happen from here on out. We coulda/shoulda beat UNC, Duke, and Pitt, but Blewitt at the end. I expect the rest of the season to look the same way, but hopefully the outcome is different.
 
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