So you're telling me there is a chance

cyptomcat

cyptomcat

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The ESPN FPI win probabilities for the rest of season:
Sat, Oct 15 vs Georgia Southern 82.4%
Sat, Oct 29 vs Duke 74.1%
Sat, Nov 5 @ #17 North Carolina 22.4%
Sat, Nov 12 @ #25 Virginia Tech 25.4%
Sat, Nov 19 vs Virginia 78.4%
Sat, Nov 26 @ Georgia 36.5%
 
It's extremely unlikely, but we're fans and we're allowed to hope. I said before the season that I thought a 5-3 team would win the Coastal and I still believe that's the case. One thing working in our favor is that Miami already lost their cross-division game, and Pitt plays Clemson, so if the division beats up on itself there's a chance we come out on top. It's happened before.

To anyone who says we should just focus on our own games, you can kindly STFU. The team will focus on the games - I need this to help me stay optimistic about the season.
 
ThisIsAtlanta said:
A coastal crown would require Miami to implode and VT to drop at least two games before we beat them. Time to start working up all mathematical scenarios under which we can win the division. My favorite part of the season!
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I'm probably gonna wait a couple weeks. The possibilities are too complicated right now.

But right now I would say VT is probably the toughest obstacle. Here's their remaining ACC schedule:

@Cuse
Miami
@Pitt
@Duke
GT
@UVA

What are the odds they pick up 3 losses there? Pitt, Miami, and GT could probably knock them off, but then we have to count on someone else to beat Pitt and Miami. Plus, either Pitt or Miami has to lose 4 games because we can't have 2 teams that beat us in the tiebreaker.

I can see why it's listed below 0.1%.
 
ThisIsAtlanta said:
A coastal crown would require Miami to implode and VT to drop at least two games before we beat them. Time to start working up all mathematical scenarios under which we can win the division. My favorite part of the season!
Click to expand...
using the fpi numbers, I ran a monte carlo on how likely I am to win the bet

right now you have a slight advantage at 3:1
 
So we are projected to finish 6-6? Right in line with what we should expect as Tech fans based on our commitment level. Yay, another bowl game!
 
Just stop. There is less than a zero chance. Try to enjoy the season and any win we get from here on out. We just suck and just need to beat duke, GS Southern and UVA. Go to bowl with 6 wins.
 
I think it's obvious that the winner of the VT/Miami game takes the Coastal. We could upset them but it clearly would not have any effect on them.

Honestly, if we make it to a bowl and beat the nutlickers, I think the season will be a success considering last year.
 
TheTaxJacket said:
Just stop. There is less than a zero chance. Try to enjoy the season and any win we get from here on out. We just suck and just need to beat duke, GS Southern and UVA. Go to bowl with 6 wins.
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öööö that, I'm not sold on UNC. Georgia is beatable.
 
UNC is pretty good on offense. The weather in the Triangle yesterday was abysmal. But they can be beat, and I've seen nothing from UGA that makes me think they're a good team.
 
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Beestorms Moms basement
 
swampsting said:
UNC is pretty good on offense. The weather in the Triangle yesterday was abysmal. But they can be beat, and I've seen nothing from UGA that makes me think they're a good team.
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If only we could get UGA and UNC to play each other...
 
Can you imagine a win over the mutts?! Seems like we do play better up there! Man they would be humiliated if we come out with a win!
 
Before the year I said there would be at least a 3 way tie at 5-3 in the Coastal division, and I still think that happens. Let's just hope we're part of it.
 
Also, what are the odds that one or more of our divisional rivals receives a postseason ban in the next month or so? That worked really great last time.
 
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