Stars and Success

77GTFan

77GTFan

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Tim Stevens of Raleigh N&O provided these interesting stats on the stars of ACC 1st Team this past season.

Offense:
5 Stars - Calvin Johnson,WR; Greg Olsen, TE
4 Stars - James Davis, RB
3 Stars - Matt Ryan, QB; Branden Ore, RB; Chansi
Stuckey, WR
2 Stars - Josh Beekman, G; Nathan Bennett, G;
Steve Justice, C
1 Star - Steve Vallos, T; Barry Richardson, T
Defense:
5 Stars - None
4 Stars - Calais Campbell, DE; Vince Hall, LB; Buster
Davis, LB
3 Stars - Joe Anoai, DT; DeMarcus Tyler, DT; Jon
Abbate, LB; Josh Gattis, S
2 Stars - Gaines Adams, DE; John Talley, CB; Brandon
Flowers, CB; Jamal Lewis, S
Special Teams
4 Stars - Darrell Blackman, Returns
2 Stars - Sam Swank, PK
Unranked - Durant Brooks

In addition, ACC Champ Wake Forest was ahead of only Duke in a composite ranking of the last five classes prior to this season. Football recruiting is about getting good players, but football success is ultimately about player development while on campus.

Interesting to note that 1st team OLine was made up of all two and one star players.
 
Playing Devil's Advocate here with two points.

1. 6/22 players on the ACC 1st team being 4/5 stars is still significant considering the 4/5 stars make up a small percentage of college players nationally.

2. The ACC was down last year, with the regular power teams being very young. The all-SEC and definitely the all-American teams would look very different.
 
First Team All-SEC
(Using Rivals)

 Offense
Five Stars(2): Robert Meachem WR, Darren McFadden RB
Four Stars(6): Arron Sears OL, Tim Duckworth OL, Tony Ugoh OL, Dwayne Bowe WR, Jamarcus Russel QB, Kenny Irons RB
Three Stars(4): Martrez Milner TE, Jacob Tamme TE, Dallas Baker WR, Steve Rissler OL
Two Stars(2): Zac Tubbs OL, Jonathan Luigs OL
One Star(0)

Defense
Five Stars(1): Quinton Culberson LB,
Four Stars(5): Glenn Dorsey DT, Quentin Groves DE, Earl Everett LB, Reggie Nelson S, LaRon Landry
Three Stars(5): Ray McDonald DT, Patrick Willis LB, Sam Olajubutu LB, Wesley Woodyard LB, Simeon Castille DB
Two Stars(1): Jamal Anderson DE
One Star():
Unrated(1): Tra Battle DB

Special Teams
Four Stars(1): James Wilhoit K
Three Stars(1): John Vaughn K
Two Stars(1): Britton Colquitt P, Mikey Henderson PR

There you have it. Three five-stars, 12 four-stars, 10 three-stars, 4 two-stars, 0 one-stars, 1 unrated.
 
Very impressive work.

Since these are people and not robots, stars are only one indicator.

And we all know that the rankings are designed for the factory fans.

When they claim that a balanced class is a rating factor yet they rank teams with ten OLmen high that is bunk. Worse is that I believe there is a team that has like 8 WR and 8 RB yet is rated high. (USC-east?)

If they wanted to be fair, they would factor in(out) likely non-qualifiers, pro-rate the impact of JUCOs, and certainly not count a flunkee re-commit both years. But the factories benefit the most from these guys.

You can say a lot about scout/rivals, but you can't say they don't know their audience...
 
knox's point is that much more interesting when you consider that the ACC had a down year and SEC was extremely strong.

Stars aren't everything, but they do mean something. You cannot win consistently when you are picking from the bottom of the barrel.
 
First Team All-America
(Using Rivals)

 Offense
Five Stars(2): Justin Blalock OL, Darren McFadden RB
Four Stars(7): Calvin Johnson WR, Dwayne Jarrett WR, Zach Miller TE, Sam Baker OL, Jake Long OL, Joe Thomas OL, Troy Smith QB
Three Stars(1): Steve Slaton RB
Two Stars(1): Dan Mozes C
One Star(0):

Defense
Five Stars(1): LaMarr Woodley DL
Four Stars(4): Quinn Pitcock DL, Leon Hall DB, LaRon Landry DB, Reggie Nelson DB,
Three Stars(6): Justin Hickman DL, Gaines Adams DL, James Laurinaitis LB, Patrick Willis LB, Paul Posluszny LB, Daymeion Hughes DB,
Two Stars(1): Eric Weddle DB
One Star(0):

Special Teams
Five Stars(1): DeSean Jackson KR
Four Stars(0):
Three Stars(1): Justin Medlock K
Two Stars(0):
One Star(0):
Unrated(1): Daniel Sepulveda P

4 Five Stars, 11 Four Stars, 8 Three Stars, 2 Two Stars, 1 Unrated
 
I think you can deduce that the ACC schools and fan base do not spend the money on watching the recruiting of football players like the southeast does. Accordingly a lot of players just aren't going to show up on the radar the same way since there is no motivation to watch state of Virginia or Maryland video, etc.
 
Interesting, BOR, but I doubt that

last year's data would be much different when the ACC did not have a 'down' year and some might say the SEC was below their standards.

The easiest way to check would be to pull a yearly average for 5/4/3/2 star recruits from the entire SEC and see if the ratios of those who make the All Conference team are consistent or different.

The same could be done for the ACC.

When I looked at UGA's depth chart not long ago, their two/one star recruits were more likely to be starting than their four star recruits IIRC.
 
There's Various Hypotheses

There's a number of possible explanations for the presented data.

One possibility is that due to the relative size of the fan bases, the prospective recruits of the ACC schools are not as well scouted as the SEC and national powerhouses.

Data just by itself is tricky. For example, you can take the above data and say, "Don't recruit five-stars. You are better off recruiting four-stars for offense, and three-stars for defense."
 
I would think the SEC, by any measure, was by far the best conference last year. Well, maybe not according to Sagarin, but the computer rankings' love affair with the PAC 10 is a whole other thread.

My personal theory about 5 stars is that they all think they're hot **** and many phase out in one way or another. I remember when FSU got the top recruit in the nation a few years ago. Forget his name, but he singlehandedly lost FSU's game against UVA and was kicked off the team a few months later.

That and Rivals also gives very few players five stars compared to Scout.
 
floridajacket said:
My personal theory about 5 stars is that they all think they're hot **** and many phase out in one way or another. I remember when FSU got the top recruit in the nation a few years ago. Forget his name, but he singlehandedly lost FSU's game against UVA and was kicked off the team a few months later.
Click to expand...
That would be wide receiver Fred Rouse.
 
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