Syracuse metrics predict GT rise

Interesting analysis. That pretty much quantitatively supports what was qualitatively obvious.
 
This was actually on last season's team. Basic summary: Close games broke against GT (despite FSU win). In addition to being decimated with injuries, GT had most close games broke against them.

Another way to look at it is: if you ran the GT schedule 10,000 times with the same injuries, the point difference formula predicts GT would on average win 5.49 games. That's still not good, but 5.49 > 3. And this is 5.49 wins on average with last year's team, with all of the injuries.

To the people who point out "yeah, but we only won 3 games," many of these same posters point to close games that we win and say "if only a few games had broken differently, CPJ would be out on his ass." This was a common argument about the 2009 season, where close games generally broke in the other direction. But you can't have it both ways. You can't use only the close wins without also using the close losses.
 
floridajacket said:
This was actually on last season's team. Basic summary: Close games broke against GT (despite FSU win). In addition to being decimated with injuries, GT had most close games broke against them
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I'm too broke to pay attention.

Just kidding, you know I $80k+
 
I hope things can't get worse after a 3-win season, and losing to a Georgia team ripe for the picking
 
Last year was an anomaly. The injuries were the most significant contributor to this anomaly. Having been decimated with injuries we were still within striking distance of a W in several games.
I firmly believe this year will be disappointing if we win only 8 games. We have four annual opponents with brand new coaching staffs, Miami, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Georgie. A lot of experience coming back. A senior quarterback, who with the right weapons has shown to be very successful and efficient.
The games I think we'll be lucky to win are the Clemson and UNC. The rest are wins and draws in my mind.
 
samsgt02 said:
Last year was an anomaly. The injuries were the most significant contributor to this anomaly. Having been decimated with injuries we were still within striking distance of a W in several games.
I firmly believe this year will be disappointing if we win only 8 games. We have four annual opponents with brand new coaching staffs, Miami, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Georgie. A lot of experience coming back. A senior quarterback, who with the right weapons has shown to be very successful and efficient.
The games I think we'll be lucky to win are the Clemson and UNC. The rest are wins and draws in my mind.
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Offensive line woes and terrible blocking were part of the problem last year. And this wasn't just the inexperienced players. Reads were thrown off because our opponents have been practicing against us specifically during offseason and they were changing at the LOS. I have confidence in CPJ to address this problem. I still have very little confidence in the OL or the OL coach to implement and execute. I don't think we'll have a 3-9 season but forgive me if I set my expectations low until I see the product on the field. Which is fine I think I had very low expectations at the start of 2014 season too.
 
I don't believe last year's issues had anything to do with our opponents doing anything new. We have been running the same offense for 8 years and PJ has been running it for 35. There really is nothing new out there. Our problem was our inability to read and adjust to what the defenses were doing. A lot falls on the OL but the inexperience of the backs and receivers impacted it as well.
 
Akinji07 said:
Offensive line woes and terrible blocking were part of the problem last year. And this wasn't just the inexperienced players. Reads were thrown off because our opponents have been practicing against us specifically during offseason and they were changing at the LOS. I have confidence in CPJ to address this problem. I still have very little confidence in the OL or the OL coach to implement and execute. I don't think we'll have a 3-9 season but forgive me if I set my expectations low until I see the product on the field. Which is fine I think I had very low expectations at the start of 2014 season too.
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We had true freshman blocking from the ABs to the WRs outside. I recall multiple dline formations against Notre Dame, Duke flat loading the box with both safeties, and VT's defensive tackle rolling around like a dog with fleas, but the real culprit was every team we faced, no the matter the stunts, formations, etc. were loading the box, and blitzing the shit out of us because we had no outside run game, outside blocking, or short passing game.

I don't think you'll see a repeat of these scenarios if we have experience on the edge. Well, we're probably never going to have a short passing game. But it's hard to do that lining up under center with 9 fools rushing vs. 5 to 6 blocking.

If we get our outside game back, the OL is going to look a lot better.
 
samsgt02 said:
We had true freshman blocking from the ABs to the WRs outside. I recall multiple dline formations against Notre Dame, Duke flat loading the box with both safeties, and VT's defensive tackle rolling around like a dog with fleas, but the real culprit was every team we faced, no the matter the stunts, formations, etc. were loading the box, and blitzing the öööö out of us because we had no outside run game, outside blocking, or short passing game.

I don't think you'll see a repeat of these scenarios if we have experience on the edge. Well, we're probably never going to have a short passing game. But it's hard to do that lining up under center with 9 fools rushing vs. 5 to 6 blocking.

If we get our outside game back, the OL is going to look a lot better.
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Yeah, I think these true freshmen AB's would run the wrong way on some plays.

The OL had some youth as well.

By the end of a 3-9 season, Johnson was perplexed. He still was Monday, saying of the O-line play, “Some of it is just mind boggling.”

Actually, there were some explanations.

Tech’s top lineman, center Freddie Burden, played much of the season hurt and coping as his father continued waiting for a heart transplant.

“We really struggled up the middle. Freddie played hurt most of the year and had a lot of stuff going on off the field that I’m not sure I could have handled,” Johnson said. “My hat’s off to him for fighting through it and coming back and playing. Most kids couldn’t have played.”

Furthermore, by season’s end, two greenhorns were in the O-Line mix. Freshman Will Bryan started at right tackle as Errin Joe moved inside for Shamire Devine, and redshirt freshman Trey Klock worked at left tackle.

Still, there was more confusion than would have been predicted. “I’d like to think that’s probably youth but you can’t fix a scheme for that,” Johnson said.
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http://www.ramblinwreck.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/010716aaa.html
 
samsgt02 said:
We had true freshman blocking from the ABs to the WRs outside. I recall multiple dline formations against Notre Dame, Duke flat loading the box with both safeties, and VT's defensive tackle rolling around like a dog with fleas, but the real culprit was every team we faced, no the matter the stunts, formations, etc. were loading the box, and blitzing the öööö out of us because we had no outside run game, outside blocking, or short passing game.

I don't think you'll see a repeat of these scenarios if we have experience on the edge. Well, we're probably never going to have a short passing game. But it's hard to do that lining up under center with 9 fools rushing vs. 5 to 6 blocking.

If we get our outside game back, the OL is going to look a lot better.
Click to expand...

I want to agree with a lot of what you're saying; but the OL play was poor last year as well. CPJ went to the trouble of hiring another OL coach in the offseason because the OL wasn't executing; let's hope that new coach pays dividends the season.

We had a short passing game when DThomas was on the team; but that was because DB's tended to play off of him rather than crowding him. A short passing game is actually a good response to an all out blitz.
 
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