Tendencies - 2nd Down

[JTS]

I went through our playcalling based on down and distance for our ACC games so far this year and found some interesting this interesting tidbit.

On 2nd & Medium (3-6 yds), we have run 19 plays. 16 of the 19 plays were runs and averaged only 2.25 yds per play. On the 3 passing plays, we've completed 3 of 3 with 2 of the 3 resulting in 1st downs.

Combined on 2nd & Short and Medium (1-6 yards), we have run 37 plays. 33 of of the 37 have been runs. 9 of the 33 run plays (27%) have resulted in no gain or negative yardage. We have completed all 4 of the pass plays with 3 of 4 going for 1st downs. It seems that we should probably mix it up more in these situations. Maybe run some more play action in these situations.

 

[GTKyle]

Interesting, Jonathan Taylor Sanchez.

How many of those drives did we convert on 3rd down?

 

[00Burdell]

Good analysis.

The stats are self-reinforcing. The more we run on 2nd down, the more teams expect the run and the less successful the run will be.

Play action would work very well. I think we're saving some serious stuff for UGa.

 

[ncjacket]

Careful JTS, I was told I was wrong about our second down efficiency. Good work on turning up the evidence. We are way to conservative on 2nd, which is one reason our 3rd down efficiency has been so poor.

 

[JTS]

Interesting, Jonathan Taylor Sanchez.

Those are my initials, but you're 0-3.

How many of those drives did we convert on 3rd down?

I don't know, but going into the Miami game we were averaging less than 1 yd per carry on 2nd & Medium and had been stopped for no gain or negative yardage on 46% of the runs called in that situation. I am not suggesting we start throwing every down in this situation, but I think that a more balanced approach than 16 runs to 3 passes is warranted given the relative results.

 

[beej67]

I agree with Jake The Snake's analysis.

 

[Buzzfan]

Everyone has tendencies......well, except for....

....ol' Ed Henry, that is. ;-)

 

[JTS]

Careful JTS, I was told I was wrong about our second down efficiency. Good work on turning up the evidence. We are way to conservative on 2nd, which is one reason our 3rd down efficiency has been so poor.

You're exactly right. We go from 2nd & Medium to 3rd & Medium or Long way too often and we are terrible in 3rd & Medium or Long.

Just for comparison:

On 2nd & Medium, we are 84% run to 16% pass and average 2.63 yards per play.

On 2nd & Long, we are a more balanced 54% run to 46% pass and average 5.68 yards per play.

That extra 3 yds gets us to 3rd & short where we convert about 80% of time versus 3rd & Medium or Long where we have only converted 30% (21 of 60).

 

[JTS]

I agree with Jake The Snake's analysis.

If I were Jake The Snake, I would definitely use DDT instead of JTS.

 

[beej67]

I love days where Jason The Slasher is watching the baby. Stingtalk gets some really good crunch to work with.

beej67,
hopes Bond has looked at the same trends

 

[GTKyle]

Those are my initials, but you're 0-3.



I don't know, but going into the Miami game we were averaging less than 1 yd per carry on 2nd & Medium and had been stopped for no gain or negative yardage on 46% of the runs called in that situation. I am not suggesting we start throwing every down in this situation, but I think that a more balanced approach than 16 runs to 3 passes is warranted given the relative results.

Jacob Timothy Smith?

 

[ramblinwise1]

Dude where do you get stats like those?

 

[GT65_UGA89]

...We are way to conservative on 2nd, which is one reason our 3rd down efficiency has been so poor...

I've been saying this since early on in the season --it's one reason why 3rd down efficiency had been so poor and IMO has contributed some to TB's low completion numbers.

There have been way to many running plays in 2nd and 6-type situations.

JTS has researched that:

On 2nd & Medium, we are 84% run to 16% pass and average 2.63 yards per play.

That percentage has actually gone up since the last time I calculated it --a couple of 4th quarter drives against Miami and Army where GT was essentially keeping the clock moving probably contributing to the increase.