The UVA game

cajunjacket

cajunjacket

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Alright guys. It's time to start looking on to next week. We have a lot of things to be proud of from this past week: we beat an emotional Clemson team at Clemson, we have won the past 4, we are relatively healthy, and apparently we are #18.

UVA - The Cavaliers (4-3) [(0-2) away]
Opening line: We are favored by 12.5 points. (And rightfully so after you look at this team statistically)

Scoring Offense: #114 of 120 with 16.9 ppg
Passing Offense: #76 of 120 with 201.7 ypg
Rushing Offense: #106 of 120 with 103.6 ypg
Total Offense: #104 of 120 with 314.3 ypg
1st Downs: #84 of 120 with 17.9 pg

Scoring Defense: #52 of 120 with 23.0 ppg
Total Defense: #56 of 120 with 347.9 ypg
Rushing Defense: #60 of 120 with 146.7 ypg
Passing Defense: #56 of 120 with 201.1 ypg
2 Blocked Kicks

Looking at this, their defense and offense are both subpar. We shouldn't have to worry about their offense too much as long as we stop the run. The only games where they scored more than 16 points was when they established the run with greater than 200 rushing yards. You can make the conclusion that stopping the run and not turning over the ball seems to be a prudent MO.

Their wins: Richmond, Maryland, Easy Carolina, UNC
Their loses: USC, UConn, Duke

A commonality in all of their wins was that they either rushed for more than 200 yards or they were ahead in the turnover margin. As for last week's game, it was the latter and not the former. They were ahead 3-0 against UNC in the TO margin.

Their QB: Marc Verica - A stat that jumps out is 3 TD and 7 INTs. He became their starter in the 3rd game of the season and is averaging 168.5 ypg passing. He is averaging -4,7 ypg rushing, so he is not a dual-threat type.

Their RB: Cedric Peerman - Averaging 70.5 ypg, 6 yards per carry, 16.3 receiving ypg, and has 6 of the team's 14 offensive TDs. He is the playmaker of this team. He is sometimes spelled by Simpson. He is the guy to stop on their offense.

Top receiver: Kevin Ogletree - 6'2" 189 lbs. 65 ypg receiving and 3 TDs.

Defensive Players:

Clint Sintim - LB - 8 sacks. 2 FR. 24 Solo Tackles. He has won ACC player of the week honors, which isn't alarming after looking at the 8 sacks.
John Copper - LB - 34 Solo tackles. 1 sack.
Antonio Appleby - LB - 31 Solo tackles. 1 sack. 1 Int
Ras-I Downling - CB - 3 Int

Special Teams:

Kick Returns: Average 21.3 ypr No TDs
Punt Returns: Average 6.1 ypr No TDs


IN SUMMARY: They have not won a game away from home. They can't do anything on offense if you stop the run. Their defense is sub par. If we don't get in our own way, we win this game.
 
Still nervous. UVA generally puts out some great NFL linemen.

How do they stack up on the lines? Any NFL-material we're gonna have to contend with?
 
I am having trouble shaking what happened last time we played at home.

Then again, MSU and Dook were home.
 
UVa is better now than they were at the beginning of the season.

So looking UVa and relying on aggregate stats is stupid. The only thing that matters is the team that shows up on game day.
 
UVA may have the best OL we will face all year. They have a good running game with Peerman and Simpson. Other than that, not much else. The quarterback is decent when the running game is going but if we clog that up, we can force him into some mistakes (which he has been prone to make).

Defensively, their LBs are good but that's about it. They aren't as good as what we have seen from Duke and BC, IMO. DL is nothing to write home about. One decent CB. If our OL can hold their own enough to allow Josh time to make a read, we can run past this defense.

Overall, I think the biggest thing Tech can do to win Saturday is stop Peerman. If we do that, we win this football game. Other than that, keep the turnovers to 2 or less and block the right man on offense.
 
Their offense is decent but Peerman is not what we need to worry about - if we key on Peerman their QB actually does have the ability to work on us.

Taking a "what have you done for me lately" approach to their offense, in their last three games the QB has completed more than 20 passes for better than 58% each time, for more than 200 yds each time. By contrast, if you take away Peerman's two 60+ yarders against ECU their ground game hasn't cracked 100 in any of their last three games.

I'm not saying don't defend the run - by all means we need to pay attention to Peerman. But don't count off their passing game - the QB has been good since he settled into their offense.
 
This is a crap analysis and I'll tell you why when I open my thread about how dangerous this team is. Your statistics won't reflect it. And always adhere to the concept that statistics are for losers.
 
Techbert said:
UVa is better now than they were at the beginning of the season.

So looking UVa and relying on aggregate stats is stupid. The only thing that matters is the team that shows up on game day.
Click to expand...

How cliche. So I guess when a coach is scheming against another team, he should just tell the players to cross their fingers and close their eyes because the team that is coming on on game day is all that matters. LOL, shows how much you know about game planning. Have you ever actually set foot on a football field or had to break down film of another team?

And if stats aren't worth anything, then why do teams hire statisticians? Oh yeah I guess it is just to piss people like you off.

ElTechelero said:
Thanks for the stats
Click to expand...

No problem. At least someone on these boards has some decency.

BarrelORum said:
This is a crap analysis and I'll tell you why when I open my thread about how dangerous this team is. Your statistics won't reflect it. And always adhere to the concept that statistics are for losers.
Click to expand...

Hey BarrelOCrap. You are crap analysis. Refer to what I had to say to the other dimwit. Football teams have a statistician on staff for this reason. I am waiting with baited breath for you wonderful analysis :bowdown:. BarrelORum's analysis is the only thing sufficient to look at. According to BarrelORum stats are for losers. So I guess LSU and Florida didn't sell programs at any of their games when they one the National Championships. THAT'S IT, LSU and Florida didn't look at any stats of Ohio State when trying to prepare for them. That's how they did it. Wow, if only everyone had brains like BOR. :bowdown: :crybaby:
 
If we all had brains like BOR, we might all be able to spell the word "won".
 
UVA's QB is NOT that good! The only reason he is able to do what he has is because they have a running game that people have to respect.
 
UVA's stats are misleading. If you're going to look at their stats, it'd be better to isolate their last 4 games and just look at those. They didn't settle on one QB / offensive system until 4 games ago, and they had a new DC this year that it took a while for them to figure out. They're playing real football now, as opposed to their first 3 games.

I think that's what Techbert was trying to say, and he has a point.
 
cajunjacket said:
only everyone had brains like BOR. :bowdown: :crybaby:
Click to expand...

If you had brains like me, you wouldn't be talking out of your ass about this game. We may destroy them, but if our team is overlooking them the way you are, we will get our brains beat in. Our offense isn't exactly that good right now. But again, if you had read my analysis of the game then you'd know that is mainly because of missed blocks and assignments by our interior OL. If our interior OL plays well, we will kill people.
 
beej67 said:
UVA's stats are misleading. If you're going to look at their stats, it'd be better to isolate their last 4 games and just look at those.
Click to expand...

Isolating their last four games tells us a lot about Peerman and about Verica.

Take away Peerman's two big runs (totaling 139 yds) for TDs against ECU and he's averaging less than 4 per carry over the last three games (he didn't play against Duke). ECU and UNC provided good blueprints for stopping him - other than those runs, he went 30 carries for about 70 yards. My understanding is that ECU runs a blitzing scheme, which leaves you vulnerable to the big play. This explains those long runs - they won't happen against us b/c of our front 7.

Verica is a good omen for us, because his lack of mobility means he won't be able to exploit our weakness against scramblers. Don't be mislead by his TD/INT ratio either - 4 of those picks came in his first start; since then he's thrown 4 TDs to 3 picks.
 
BarrelORum said:
If you had brains like me, you wouldn't be talking out of your ass about this game. We may destroy them, but if our team is overlooking them the way you are, we will get our brains beat in. Our offense isn't exactly that good right now. But again, if you had read my analysis of the game then you'd know that is mainly because of missed blocks and assignments by our interior OL. If our interior OL plays well, we will kill people.
Click to expand...

Talking out of my ass?? Your post is full of opinion and sprinkled with facts. Mine is full of facts and sprinkled with some opinion. I don't know why you decided to totally make fun of my post, especially since we are both Tech fans. I was just offering my analysis, but apparently that was "crap" in your opinion. I read your game analysis and thoroughly enjoyed it, but for some reason you still have issues with statistics.

I like stats, some people hate stats. That's life. Move on dude...
 
"If our interior OL plays well, we will kill people."

I trust Andrew Gardner and David Brown more than anyone else on the line....so I definitely agree with you.

I love watching film. It separates thoughts from factual commentary.
 
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