the UVA is far more important than the next two

thwg

thwg

Damn Good Rat
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if we want to win the ACC. We really need to go 5-0 in the division to win the ACC based on last week's loss and two more difficult games with CU and MD. If we went 5-0 in the divisiion, we would almost surely advance to Jax with 1-2 vs the Atlantic and I'd guess would have better than a 50/50 chance of advancing to Jax with an 0-3 record vs. the other division.

Beating UVA is essential to getting to Jax and going to the Orange Bowl to play the LSU/UF loser which would be fun.

I trust that the staff and players will make great strides after last week and we'll play very well on both lines this week. If so, we should win by a TD or more.
 
thwg said:
if we want to win the ACC. We really need to go 5-0 in the division to win the ACC based on last week's loss and two more difficult games with CU and MD. If we went 5-0 in the divisiion, we would almost surely advance to Jax with 1-2 vs the Atlantic and I'd guess would have better than a 50/50 chance of advancing to Jax with an 0-3 record vs. the other division.
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Pretty good analysis, I think. The good news is the teams we're competing with in the Coastal with the best chance to get to JAX also have difficult interdivision matchups - VT (@ Clemson, BC, and F$U), scUM (@F$U, NCSU, and @BC).

UVA does have a scheduling advantage in that they don't have to play Clemson or BC. So that further illustrates your point that this week is more important.
 
thwg said:
Beating UVA is essential to getting to Jax and going to the Orange Bowl to play the LSU/UF loser which would be fun.
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I'd say that's...unlikely unless both LSU and UF take a loss at some point and miss the national title game - with the way the BCS bowls are set up, it's very likely the top available team from the SEC will go to the Sugar Bowl. It's much more likely that the Orange will pick a Big East team to matchup against their automatic ACC team.

But then again, a lot can change between now and December....
 
ASimPerson said:
I'd say that's...unlikely unless both LSU and UF take a loss at some point and miss the national title game - with the way the BCS bowls are set up, it's very likely the top available team from the SEC will go to the Sugar Bowl. It's much more likely that the Orange will pick a Big East team to matchup against their automatic ACC team.

But then again, a lot can change between now and December....
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I just assume they'll both lose at least once. UF has at least two losses in them imo but LSU may be in the BCS game which would send an SEC team (likely UF) to the Sugar.

UF going 13-0 with that schedule and a young QB seems impossible. LSU, otoh, will be favored by at least a TD in every game it plays.

Anyway, whether it's UF or WVU or PSU or Alabama, we need to win Saturday to go to the Orange Bowl.
 
ASimPerson said:
I'd say that's...unlikely unless both LSU and UF take a loss at some point and miss the national title game - with the way the BCS bowls are set up, it's very likely the top available team from the SEC will go to the Sugar Bowl. It's much more likely that the Orange will pick a Big East team to matchup against their automatic ACC team.

But then again, a lot can change between now and December....
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There's also the possibility that the SEC champion is #2 behind USC. In that case the Rose gets to pick first for an opponent against tOSU/Wisconsin/Penn State. With ND out, they would very likely go for the SEC loser if Cal isn't available. Sugar would then pick one team, then the Orange picks the team to play the ACC champion, then the Fiesta and then the Sugar picks the other team.

The at-larges are pretty open this year. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
 
thwg said:
I just assume they'll both lose at least once. UF has at least two losses in them imo but LSU may be in the BCS game which would send an SEC team (likely UF) to the Sugar.

UF going 13-0 with that schedule and a young QB seems impossible. LSU, otoh, will be favored by at least a TD in every game it plays.

Anyway, whether it's UF or WVU or PSU or Alabama, we need to win Saturday to go to the Orange Bowl.
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I disagree about UF. Tenn. was one of those "hard games" and UF made the score look like a tune-up game. Past LSU, I don't really see any serious challenges to UF.
 
floridajacket said:
I disagree about UF. Tenn. was one of those "hard games" and UF made the score look like a tune-up game. Past LSU, I don't really see any serious challenges to UF.
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Agreed. I'm really looking forward to see the Gators take on LSU; it should be one of the best games of the season.
 
Floridajacket, I have seen UT play this...

floridajacket said:
I disagree about UF. Tenn. was one of those "hard games" and UF made the score look like a tune-up game. Past LSU, I don't really see any serious challenges to UF.
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season against So.Miss. I wasn't impressed at all with them, thought their talent level was more in line with an ACC team rather than a top shelf SEC team. I also think Fulmer's teams will lay down at times. It's too early in the season imo to really be able to evaluate teams completely. Not saying UF isn't a good or possibly great team, just that it's too early in the season to get a complete read.
 
UVA stinks. They beat Duke and UNC in close games. They are not a good football team. don't let there 2-0 ACC record fool you. There is NO way they beat us I don't care where the game is.
 
ContactBuzz said:
Pretty good analysis, I think. The good news is the teams we're competing with in the Coastal with the best chance to get to JAX also have difficult interdivision matchups - VT (@ Clemson, BC, and F$U), scUM (@F$U, NCSU, and @BC).

UVA does have a scheduling advantage in that they don't have to play Clemson or BC. So that further illustrates your point that this week is more important.
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Clemson and BC will eat the Hookies for breakfast. Miami FSU could go either way but they will lose big to BC. even if we lose to Clemson as long as we beat Miami and VT we should still be in the ACCCG. I like our chances.
 
floridajacket said:
I disagree about UF. Tenn. was one of those "hard games" and UF made the score look like a tune-up game. Past LSU, I don't really see any serious challenges to UF.
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UF would have to win in Baton Rouge and beat LSU in Jax to go undefeated. They also have to play UGA and FSU. Heck, they play at UF. Young QBs lose games everywhere...espeically in the SEC.
 
How does a team that is ranked 103 out of 119 in passing efficiency have any hope of winning a conference crown?

Our fan base is stupid and delusional--kind of like our offensive coaching staff.

Ted Roof can at least blame it on lack of talent.
 
jacketup said:
How does a team that is ranked 103 out of 119 in passing efficiency have any hope of winning a conference crown?

Our fan base is stupid and delusional--kind of like our offensive coaching staff.

Ted Roof can at least blame it on lack of talent.
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If we're 103 after 10 games you have a point. But where we rank after 3 games is immaterial. There are stupid people among our fan base....but it's not always clear who they are.
 
jacketup said:
How does a team that is ranked 103 out of 119 in passing efficiency have any hope of winning a conference crown?

Our fan base is stupid and delusional--kind of like our offensive coaching staff.

Ted Roof can at least blame it on lack of talent.
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Through that stat being pretty much meaningless at this point. The overall stats mean very little in the first place since they don't control for the defenses faced. And if it only includes the three games so far, it would consist of the two games where we ran nearly every down and one game where TB had a fairly respectable stat line.

So, it's basically a punishment for running the ball so well. It's pretty stupid and delusional to only look at that one stat as a barometer for this team.
 
floridajacket said:
Through that stat being pretty much meaningless at this point. The overall stats mean very little in the first place since they don't control for the defenses faced. And if it only includes the three games so far, it would consist of the two games where we ran nearly every down and one game where TB had a fairly respectable stat line.

So, it's basically a punishment for running the ball so well. It's pretty stupid and delusional to only look at that one stat as a barometer for this team.
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Care to explain that last sentence? Before you try, you might want to know that our efficiency ranking dropped from 82 to 103 after 39 passing attempts against BC.

Our passing offense has sucked for 5 1/3 years under Gailey. So is it 3 games, or 60 plus games that we should be concerned about? All you ever hear from him is "run the ball." The passing game gets better only through repetition, repetition, repetition, and the passing game is not his emphasis. The man had no Div 1-A head coaching experience or offensive coordinator experience before coming to GT, and his offense is stuck in the 70s when he played. Putting ratings aside, I know what I see on the field, and this passing offense has issues from blocking to route running to timing--just like the last 5 years.

To believe that our passing game will get better this year is the triumph of hope over experience.
 
jacketup said:
How does a team that is ranked 103 out of 119 in passing efficiency have any hope of winning a conference crown?
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When a team rushes for 654 yards in it's first two games then yes, the passing numbers are going to be down --in those first two games GT ran on 98 plays and threw 36 plays. Even including the BC numbers, GT's offense thus far has gone to the ground attack 63% of the time.

I will grant you that the passing game needs to open up some --TB needs to relax, trust his talent and instincts as a QB and throw downfield a little more. That being said, I appreciate the fact that TB has completed 55% of his passes and has yet to throw an INT.
 
beej, the whole issue is no TD passes. You can basically throw it up and down the field, but if you run it in, it hurts your efficiency. I don't know the formula exactly but think the throw ot Greg Smith that was called a lateral against Samford and the TD pass to Kelly that was called back would have a huge impact on that stat. My point is that something that is so dependant on 2 plays isn't that meaningful at this point. jacketup can come back at mid season and we can talk then.
 
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