Updated ESPN FPI

[gtrower]

So we can look at this a few ways.

1) Our players used the 24% predicted win % @FSU as a rallying cry. So shows how meaningless this model is that we were heavy dogs but dominated the stat sheet.
2) It's data-driven and you'd expect it to be more accurate after more games are played.
3) öööö it. It kind of likes us now so I like it right back.

Updated chances of winning each remaining game:
@Cuse: 76.4%
Duke: 67.7%
@NCSU: 65.5%
Pitt: 57.0%
@BC: 54.4%
@Miami: 47.5%
UL: 36.1%
ND: 28.6%
UCF: 21.9%
Clemson: 5.9%

That puts us somewhere in the 5-6 expected wins range. Think most would have taken that deal in a heartbeat a week ago. Not so sure I'd take it now.

 

[JJacket]

So we can look at this a few ways.

1) Our players used the 24% predicted win % @FSU as a rallying cry. So shows how meaningless this model is that we were heavy dogs but dominated the stat sheet.
2) It's data-driven and you'd expect it to be more accurate after more games are played.
3) öööö it. It kind of likes us now so I like it right back.

Updated chances of winning each remaining game:
@Cuse: 76.4%
Duke: 67.7%
@NCSU: 65.5%
Pitt: 57.0%
@BC: 54.4%
@Miami: 47.5%
UL: 36.1%
ND: 28.6%
UCF: 21.9%
Clemson: 5.9%

That puts us somewhere in the 5-6 expected wins range. Think most would have taken that deal in a heartbeat a week ago. Not so sure I'd take it now.

So if we beat UCF, they should update to having us favored the rest of the way.

 

[Jo_Vision]

So we now have a better chance against ND than UCF? That’s interesting

edit: changed at to against so as not to imply on their turf

 

[GTLiebs]

So we now have a better chance against ND than UCF? That’s interesting

edit: changed at to against so as not to imply on their turf

Prolly cause of ND being meh against Duke and UCF not playing yet.

 

[00Burdell]

UCF is going to be a tough out.

 

[BuzzFeitenSystem]

So we’re a better team this year and beat Miami last year and it’s still less than 50%

 

[Walton]

That seems reasonable. Much moreso than finishing 15th in conference.

 

[gtrower]

So if we beat UCF, they should update to having us favored the rest of the way.

It would probably up our expected wins total to the 7-8 range. Which would be an absurd narrative flip in the span of 8 days.

 

[JoeCakeEater]

I'd still take the 5-6 win right now if on the table. I'm very excited about the season, but I try not to change my expectations too quickly based on a single data point.

 

[cyptomcat]

If I remember correctly, FPI is still mostly based on last season's performance with only couple games within the current season.

 

[JJacket]

UCF is going to be a tough out.

Oh we are gonna out UCF

 

[18in32]

So we’re a better team this year and beat Miami last year and it’s still less than 50%

Perhaps they're better, too...?

 

[cyptomcat]

Perhaps they're better, too...?

We can say that both teams are very different. They each have new QBs for starters...